Sergey Fursa
The National Bank was the main newsmaker on the domestic market
The week was marked by synchronized actions of the world’s leading central banks. They raised the stakes by 25 basis points. etc., continuing its crusade against inflation, which, it seems, only needs to be finished off. First, the US Federal Reserve did it, then the European Central Bank. Given that the Fed’s actions were expected, everyone focused on words that generally pleased the market. But what upset the market was the actions of the Bank of Japan, which unexpectedly joined the growth of rates. As a result, it led to small sales and pushed the American stock market back from the already approaching local highs to historical ones. Unnerving investors who were looking for an excuse to sell something against the backdrop of record multiples of US stocks. Estimating the cost of Tesla will not lie. Leading to dizziness from success (or from other potent substances) with Elon Musk, who continues to play the king of Twitter, breaking what he has not yet managed to break.
As a result, the S&P500 index will open on Friday at 4537 points, which is only three points away from last Friday’s opening level. Stronger fall does not give good economic statistics that continue to come from the US. Where the statistics are worse is in Europe. Particularly sad industrial production in Germany.
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And if you thought that this was the result of sanctions or expensive gas, then perhaps you just watched the videos of Russian propaganda, which, after the winter masterpieces about freezing Britons, switched to videos in German, doing cheap and angry cosplay of Jojo Rabbit and promising the Germans a total against the backdrop of support for Ukraine, flirting with topics tabooed in Germany. Gas now on the exchanges costs only $300. And the German economy is suffering from the weakness of the Chinese economy, which has recently become a key client of German industry. And the support of Ukraine did not stand here and there. This week, the markets perked up a little on the back of Chinese promises to stimulate growth for real. True, whether the Chinese comrades will succeed is not yet clear.
Another result of the cancellation of the decisions of the Central Banks was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Now the rate in the main world currency pair is 1.098 dollars for one euro. Slightly pleased with the weakening of the European currency of the same German exporters, who are in a deep depression. And oil continues to trade above $80 per barrel. Apparently, against the background of real cuts in supplies from Russia and Saudi Arabia. But the cost of grain and corn continues to creep up. And here, of course, Russia also could not do without it, because the growth in the cost of food in the world continues against the backdrop of Moscow’s active terrorist actions in the ports of Odessa. After which it is hard to keep a good face, telling African leaders how much you love and respect them. Because who else but these leaders know what the increase in the cost of food, especially bread, is fraught with for their power. What is bad for Africans is good for Ukrainian farmers, for whom the increase in the cost of grain and corn is very helpful to maintain at least some profitability against the backdrop of more expensive logistics through the Danube and the western border compared to the usual export from the seaport.
Good mood remains in the Ukrainian segment of Eurobonds. Sovereigns gained about one point along the yield curve. Only Eurobonds of Kernel feel badly, for the terminals of which, for some reason, Russian generals are especially zealously hunting. It seems that one of them until recently was the owner of Kernel shares and was offended after the actual forced buyout. On the domestic market, the main newsmaker, as was customary this week, was the National Bank. Lowered the discount rate for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion. The rate cut was expected, since the NBU prepared the market with its verbal interventions, and the only question was how much the regulator would reduce the cost of money in the economy. As a result, the rate was reduced from 25% to 22%, which is more drastic than forecasters generally expected. And obviously this decline is not the last this year. Moreover, the National Bank itself revised the inflation forecast for 2023, lowering it to a level below 11%.
And the hryvnia exchange rate began to move. Creating the impression that we have a real and mature market and the exchange rate even on the black market depends on the decisions of the National Bank on the discount rate. By Friday, the exchange rate on the black market is approximately 37.6 hryvnia to the dollar. And the movement of the hryvnia was surprisingly synchronous, adding 10 kopecks a day, starting from Monday. What made the rate on the black market wake up and move is not entirely clear where. Perhaps currency speculators saw a chance to organize at least some kind of life in the foreign exchange market amid problems with the grain deal and decided to rock the market. People need to make money somehow. And, perhaps, we saw some early manifestation of seasonality, characteristic of the Ukrainian foreign exchange market, dependent on the periods of harvest and sowing, just like representatives of the Trypillia culture. Usually, however, this seasonality started a little later, closer to September.
P.S. Every great story on the planet happened when someone decided not to give up, but kept going no matter what
Clever Loriano
2023-07-29 13:40:00
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