Dressed in the colors of the two parties, Republican red and Democratic blue, the United States appears to be a chaotic political patchwork quilt. On election night, Americans will be bombarded with reports of the ‘blue wall’ (states that invariably vote Democratic, although that was disappointing when Hillary Clinton counted on it in 2016) and the ‘deep South’ (traditionally Republican, but now shaky).
Put states in order of their enthusiasm for President Donald Trump or his challenger Joe Biden, according to the polls, it is suddenly clear: the candidate who should be concerned is Trump. The Blue States together can send enough members to the electoral college to appoint Biden as president.
At the two ends of that meandering road along the American states are areas, deep blue and dark red, where there is no doubt about the outcome. In the capital Washington DC, just under 90 percent will vote for Biden. In rural Nebraska District 3 (with Maine the only state not necessarily assigning all of its electoral college members to one winner), a Trump victory is so certain that no one bothered to gauge it.
The chance of adversity increases towards the center
Towards the center the color becomes lighter, the lead in Trump or Biden’s polls becomes more modest for each state, the chance of setbacks increases. During election night, the winding road can help predict the outcome, even if many states have not finished counting. For example, New Hampshire (light blue) is expected to produce a result quickly. If Biden wins, he can also count on a win in Maine, Colorado, and so on. With a good report from Montana, Trump can trust that he also has South Carolina and all the redder states in his pocket.
That is why Pennsylvania is the tipping point of the election: if Joe Biden wins there – last score: 5 percent lead – then it can be assumed that he will bring in the 270 members of the electoral college he needs. Conversely, Trump’s gain in that state means that he must also have won a number of other hotly contested states, such as Arizona and Florida, and remain president for another four years.
In the latter case, opinion pollsters have been even more wrong than in 2016 with Hillary Clinton’s collapsing ‘blue wall’. If the polls were good, there will be a margin of error. States will leapfrog. After the elections, that winding road will probably look a lot less tight.
Also read:
Is red Arizona turning blue in these elections?
In recent years, the former Republican stronghold of Arizona has turned into a Democratic state. Because of this, Joe Biden would sometimes be the eleven electors of this desert state can win on November 3.
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