Basic metal industries fell 14.8% in October (iStock)
The manufacturing industry is going through one of the worst crises of the last decade, but little by little it is beginning to show some signs of recovery. According to a study published by the consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreresindustrial activity grew 1.4% in October, compared to the same month in 2010. Although it is a discrete improvement, it is a very significant result, because it is the first positive after 17 consecutive months of numbers in the red .
However, despite the recovery in October, the cumulative figure for the first ten months of the year showed a drop of 7.5%. Furthermore, after the expansion observed in September, the measurement without seasonality recorded a monthly decrease of 0.5% in October, reflecting a volatile performance of industrial activity.
Although the overall balance was positive, when analyzing the October result by branch of activity, the study finds that there were only two sectors that grew in the tenth month of the year. It is about the Food and the Refinerieswhich presented better than 44.6% and 12.4% respectively.
In the case of food, the increase is explained almost exclusively by the 110.2% annual growth recorded in oil production, and to a much lesser extent by the expansion in cattle slaughter (+9.0%), and poultry. (+4.2%). Regarding refineries, the increased activity is tied to a substantial improvement in crude oil production levels, largely oriented toward export, thanks to the boost from Vaca Muerta.
The truth is that both sectors grew strongly. As these are pronounced increases and these are items with a high impact on the general weighting, the total result is positive. However, the rest of the activities continued to decline and in some cases the declines were very marked.
According to the consulting firm’s survey, the branch of activity that fared the worst is non-metallic mineralswhich presented a drop of 21.1%. This is a logical result, taking into account that this item covers the production of construction supplies. In fact, the manufacture of materials for the works presented a contraction of 21.1%, accumulating for the period a level of activity 26.7% lower than the same period last year. Similarly, Portland cement production showed a decrease in the annual measurement of 20.0% in the tenth month, and a contraction of 1.1% when compared to September. It is important to remember that construction continues to work at “half machine” due to the decision of the national government to practically stop public works at zero.
Another branch of activity that fell sharply is that of tobacco (-16.8%), followed by pharmaceuticals (-15.1%) and basic metal industries (-14.8%). Regarding the latter, the consulting firm highlighted that, among the production lines, the 21.6% decrease in the production of raw steel and the 17.1% falls in the production of hot-finished rolled and 2, 4% in cold finished ones.
In addition, industrial production of drinks and that of plastic products (-8.5%). The health sector also adds to the list of bad results. “machinery and equipment”with a drop of 8%. This item showed a slowdown compared to the falls in August (-21.5%) and September (-17.2%), and accumulated a contraction of 21.4% for the period. In the automotive detail, Adefa reported a production 0.9% higher than that of the same month last year, managing to record a positive figure for the first time in the year in the annual measurement.
Finally, we must mention the fall of the manufacturing industries. paper (-7,7%), textile (-5,9%) y chemical (-5,3%).
What specific policy changes could the government implement to effectively address the challenges facing sectors like Non-Metallic Minerals, which are linked to the construction slowdown and have experienced significant decline?
## Recovery in Sight? A Discussion on the State of the Manufacturing Industry
Welcome to World Today News. Today, we have with us two esteemed guests to dissect the recent activity in the manufacturing industry.
**Our guests are:**
* **Dr. Elena Rodriguez, Economist specializing in Industrial Development**
* **Mr. Javier Lopez, CEO of a mid-sized manufacturing company**
Thank you both for joining us.
**Section 1: The Glimmer of Hope**
* **Moderator:** The article highlights a welcome 1.4% growth in industrial activity for October, the first positive figure after 17 months of decline. Dr. Rodriguez, how significant is this uptick, and what are the potential factors driving it?
* **Moderator:** Mr. Lopez, from your perspective as a business leader, are you witnessing these positive trends within your own company? What gives you confidence, or concern, about this potential recovery?
**Section 2: A Sector-Specific Look**
* **Moderator:** The article highlights the contrasting performances of various manufacturing sectors. While Food and Refineries showed significant growth, sectors like Non-Metallic Minerals and Basic Metal Industries experienced sharp declines. Dr. Rodriguez, can you elaborate on the factors driving this disparity?
* **Moderator:** Mr. Lopez, how has your company navigated these divergent trends within the manufacturing landscape? What strategic decisions have you made in response to the challenges faced by specific sectors?
**Section 3: Construction and Government Policy**
* **Moderator:** The article explicitly points to government policy and the slowdown in public works as a contributing factor to the slump in the Non-Metallic Minerals sector. Dr. Rodriguez, what are your thoughts on the role of government policy in shaping the trajectory of the manufacturing industry?
* **Moderator:** Mr. Lopez, how has the construction sector slowdown impacted your business directly, and what measures would you like to see the government implement to support the recovery of this critical sector?
**Section 4: Longer-Term Outlook**
* **Moderator:** Despite the positive October figures, the cumulative data for the year still paints a picture of decline. Dr. Rodriguez, what are your projections for the manufacturing industry moving forward? What are the key indicators we should be watching?
* **Moderator:** Mr. Lopez, what steps are you taking within your company to ensure resilience and future growth, given the uncertainties facing the manufacturing sector? What are your biggest hopes and concerns for the industry moving forward?
**Concluding Remarks**
* **Moderator:** Thank you both for sharing your valuable insights. It’s clear that while the manufacturing industry faces ongoing challenges, there are glimmers of hope and areas for optimism. We look forward to witnessing the continued evolution of this crucial sector.
