First-time buyers on the housing market hardly benefit from new rules, while, for example, the reduction of transfer tax should actually help them. Instead, incumbent owners in particular will benefit from the changed regulations. ABN AMRO says this on Tuesday.
In order to give beginners in the housing market a better chance, the government introduced various measures at the beginning of this year. For example, on 1 January the transfer tax was reduced for those who buy a home for the first time and are younger than 35 years old. In addition, the maximum mortgage amount for starters with a student debt has increased.
According to ABN AMRO, these and a few other new measures will only ensure a better position for starters in the short term. Unemployment is expected to increase later this year and the housing market will continue to be tight because little new construction will be added. In addition, the favorable effect of the low mortgage interest rate diminishes when it no longer falls.
At the same time, the new rules ensure that the demand for housing increases. That is beneficial for existing homeowners, while the rules were intended to help starters in the saddle. The persistent housing shortage is also pushing up the price.
Building many new homes is the solution to this problem, according to the bank. However, it is unlikely that much new construction will be added in the coming years. “Given the limited number of building permits and the ongoing nitrogen crisis, the construction of new houses will continue to be disappointing in the coming years,” said ABN AMRO in an explanation.
The bank has therefore adjusted its expectation about the rise in house prices upwards. Where ABN AMRO initially assumed a plus of 5 percent this year, according to the new calculations this will probably be 7.5 percent.
Prices will also rise faster in 2022, by 2.5 percent instead of the previous expectation of 1 percent. The number of transactions will decrease this year and will be about 10 percent lower than last year, the bank thinks.
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