Last February, when President Putin announced the start of the invasion of Ukraine in a chilling televised speech, the Kremlin was so confident of success that the first wave of Russian troops was ordered to pack special uniforms for a victory parade in Kiev. It didn’t take long for it to become clear that Putin’s plans were falling apart.
Almost a year after the war began, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed, hundreds of thousands of men have fled the country to avoid conscription, and some Russian regions bordering Ukraine are under near-daily shelling. In the past two weeks, Russian forces have suffered their highest casualty rate since the start of the war, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence.
Instead of triumphant speeches in the Ukrainian capital, Putin’s image as a master strategist was shattered, leaving him arguably weaker than at any time during his 23-year rule. His failure to secure a quick victory cost him the respect and unquestioned loyalty of senior officials, Gennady Gudkov, a former KGB colonel and former Russian lawmaker living in exile, told The Times.
“Putin cannot run the Kremlin as before. He made many stupid mistakes and everyone from the General Staff of the Armed Forces to the leadership of the FSB and his close associates understand this,” he added.
“Officials are becoming bolder and brazen and infighting has escalated. There is no longer that obedience to Putin that existed a year ago,” said Gudkov, who cited conversations with relatives of Kremlin insiders, aides to political figures in Moscow and unnamed Russians tycoons. “It’s a quiet rebellion against him.”
Tatyana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst whose research focuses on the Kremlin, says that while there is little chance that officials will be bold enough to criticize Putin directly, many are disillusioned with his disastrous handling of the war. “A lot of them respected him,” she opined. “No longer.”
In addition to the humiliating twists and turns on the battlefield, the Russian economy is also straining under the weight of Western sanctions, including the imposition of a price cap on Russian oil. Last month, Russia posted a budget deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles – the biggest for January since Putin took power in 2000. Sanctions have stripped members of Russia’s elite of foreign assets, including property in Europe, while doing much for their children more difficult to study in prestigious Western schools and universities.
Still, Putin remains confident in his belief that he is fulfilling his “historic mission” to bring Kiev under Moscow’s control, says Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council, which sometimes advises the Kremlin. The council is believed not to have been consulted on the decision to invade Ukraine, with key decisions being taken exclusively by Putin and a small group of hardliners.
Despite the setbacks his army has suffered, Putin appeared at ease when answering questions at a forum in late October, according to Lukyanov, who moderated the discussions. “He was as confident and calm as ever,” he says. “There was no irritation, no matter what questions were asked. He seems to be 200 percent sure that what he is doing and what Russia is doing is necessary and that it was inevitable. That we are on the right side of history, whatever to happen.”
Lukyanov also revealed that many Russian politicians were puzzled as to why the Kremlin had not retaliated “properly” against the supply of Western arms to Ukraine. Putin warned at the start of the war that Western countries that tried to come to Ukraine’s aid would “face consequences greater than any you have faced in history”. He has also threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend occupied territory in Ukraine that Russia claims as its own.
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric was a key factor in the recent decision by a panel of international scientists to move the hands of the Doomsday Clock, which illustrates threats to humanity’s existence, to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to 12 midnight since its inception in 1947
“Russia could retaliate not only with nuclear weapons, but also with massive cyberattacks or by targeting Western arms delivery routes,” Lukyanov explains. “The problem is that the longer Russia doesn’t respond, the more likely that response will have to be extremely powerful to demonstrate commitment. That it will use the best argument.”
“Suggestions that Putin is being misled by his advisers about the grim realities of the war appear to be inaccurate,” added Lukyanov. “He doesn’t seem like he’s unaware of what’s going on. He seems to have the right information. But that information doesn’t bother him much.”
Once portrayed by Russian propaganda as an outspoken man of the people, Putin is an isolated figure. On Orthodox Christmas Eve, he attended the liturgy alone in the Kremlin Cathedral, which had been emptied of all other worshippers. In December, he abruptly canceled his annual press conference and annual televised question-and-answer session with the Russian people, as well as his State of the Nation address to parliament. Critics say Putin is reluctant to answer tough questions about the war because he knows he can’t give meaningful answers.
“A year later, Putin has nothing to answer the main question: ‘How does he see a way out of the situation he created?'” wrote Leonid Volkov, a former top aide to Alexei Navalny, the imprisoned Russian opposition leader, on social media. Generals and businessmen ask themselves this question: Putin’s entourage does not understand what all these losses and deprivations were for. But Putin has no answer. The silence is deafening.”
Putin spent much of the pandemic at his residences near Moscow and in Sochi. Visitors were required to pass through disinfection “tunnels” before entering, and officials were ordered to quarantine for up to 14 days before being allowed to meet the president. The self-isolation order is believed to remain: Andrei Bocharov, governor of Volgograd region, was not seen in public for almost two weeks before meeting Putin this month.
The measures coincide with ongoing speculation about Putin’s health. Ukrainian military intelligence told ABC News recently, citing unnamed sources, that the Russian leader is terminally ill with cancer. The Kremlin insists that Putin is in good health.
Before the war, he was reportedly seen dozens of times by a cancer specialist. He is also believed to take baths of deer antler blood, a traditional remedy in the Altai region of southern Siberia for a range of ailments. There are also concerns about Putin’s state of mind. “He was reacting to pictures in his own head,” Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser, told The Times at the start of the war.
During his televised New Year’s address, traditionally delivered against the backdrop of the Kremlin, Putin stood before a row of grim-faced people in military uniforms. In a nine-minute speech, his longest on New Year’s Day, he attacked the West, accusing it of using the war in Ukraine to “weaken and split” mother Russia.
Putin’s personal life remains a secret. He has been officially a bachelor since 2014, when he divorced Lyudmila, a former Aeroflot flight attendant. Putin is unofficially believed to be in a long-term relationship with Alina Kabaeva, a former Olympic gymnast who was appointed head of a pro-Kremlin media company in 2014. Kabaeva, 39, has been sanctioned by Britain, the European Union and the United States. Last week, she described Russian state television as a “military weapon” comparable in power to a Kalashnikov assault rifle. “Let’s work!” she said at a media event with a Z symbol in support of the war pinned to her black business suit.
Putin’s two grown-up daughters from his marriage to Lyudmila, Maria Vorontsova, 37, and Katerina Tikhonova, 36, were sanctioned by Western countries last year. The Kremlin has never publicly acknowledged its relationship with Putin, but the US has said there is evidence that people around them have taken advantage of their status. Tikhonova was previously married to Kirill Shamalov, a businessman whose fortunes skyrocketed after he became Putin’s son-in-law in 2013.
Putin is also believed to have three children with Kabaeva, but their identities have never been confirmed. The Russian leader is also believed to have a teenage daughter named Elizaveta from an affair he had during his first term with Svetlana Krivonogikh, a former cleaner from St Petersburg. Kryvonogih, who became massively wealthy after her relationship with Putin, was sanctioned this month by Britain.
There is little hope that Putin will cut his losses and withdraw from Ukraine, according to Stanovaya, a political analyst. Cornered and resentful, he is convinced he has no choice but to try to crush what he sees as an unacceptable threat to Russia from a pro-NATO government in Kiev, she said. According to Putin’s worldview, the West bears full responsibility for provoking the war, and an end to the conflict is realistically possible only if Western countries abandon their support for Ukraine.
“Putin and the Russian elite see this war as existential. If Russia loses, if there are strikes in Crimea, I think they are psychologically prepared to use nuclear weapons,” says Stanovaya. “Putin thinks he gave Ukraine too much time to arm himself. Now he believes that if he does nothing, Russia will cease to exist in a few years. His only regret is that he didn’t start the war sooner.”
