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Allow us to remind you: the 2 finest groups from every Euro 2024 group will probably be chosen. Moreover, third groups have an opportunity: on this approach, 4 of the six groups with the most effective file will advance to the 1/8 finals (factors are counted first, then objective stability and objectives scored).
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If Poland received towards the Netherlands, it could have as a lot as 73 p.c. probabilities of development, and within the occasion of a draw, 37 p.c. Nevertheless, Michał Probierz’s crew misplaced and due to this fact its probabilities dropped to 19%.
The Polish nationwide crew ought to help France within the match towards Austria
Now quite a bit will rely upon Monday’s match between Austria and France. In response to the evaluation introduced in Channel Zero:
- if France wins, Poland can have 20 p.c. probabilities for promotion
- in case of a tie, 16 p.c
- and if Austria wins, the Poles’ probabilities will drop to solely 12 p.c.
To consider promotion, Poles should rating not less than three factors and with objective stability (Euro 2016 and Euro 2020 present {that a} 0 or -1 stability is required), and we described it in additional element on this textual content >>
Because of this, we now have to beat Austria (Friday, 6 p.m.) or France (Tuesday, 6 p.m.), as a result of it is extremely uncertain that two attracts will permit us to go away the group. Theoretically, Austria is a weaker rival, so Friday’s match will probably be essential for the Polish nationwide crew.
If Poland loses to Austria, it can most likely lose any probability of advancing to the knockout part of Euro 2024
There may be additionally a doable situation during which we lose the prospect to advance even earlier than the final match towards France. For this to occur, the French should rating not less than 4 factors in matches towards Austria and the Netherlands, and the Poles should lose Friday’s match. Then even a victory within the final match, even 100-0, is not going to give something to Probierz’s crew.
It’s because in UEFA competitions, when the variety of factors is equal, it’s not the objective stability that decides (as in FIFA competitions, i.e. primarily the World Cup), however direct matches.
On this case, France can have not less than 4 factors, and Austria and the Netherlands can have not less than three factors every. Due to this fact, the Poles will be unable to overhaul the French. Theoretically, they might equal the variety of factors with Austria and the Netherlands, however in a small desk together with direct matches with these two groups, they might positively take final place (because of two defeats).
To place it otherwise: if Poland loses to Austria, its solely hope of advancing to the 1/8 finals of Euro 2024 will probably be to defeat and overtake the French nationwide crew. A draw with Austria will protect our probabilities of advancing to the final spherical, identical to a victory between the Austrians and the French (as a result of then we will definitely have an opportunity to overhaul the Tricolors due to a direct match).
There are a lot of eventualities, and we are going to know rather more on Monday after the Austria – France match. Within the easiest and finest situation for us, we should always help the French after which beat Austria.
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Supply: Przegląd Sportowy Onet
Created date: June 17, 2024 05:30
Journalist of Przegląd Sportowy Onet
