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Will the “Polish Deal” end the crisis in the United Right?
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After activating the “Polish Deal”, Nowogrodzka knows that Jarosław Gowin is in a difficult situation.
Jarosław Kaczyński’s associate says: – By signing the “Polish Order”, Jarosław Gowin signed a death sentence for himself.
A person from Gowin’s circle: – Unfortunately, he is killing his political DNA.
“Order” of disagreement in the Agreement
There is dissatisfaction in the ranks of the Agreement after the signing of the “Polish Deal” by the deputy prime minister. He himself came to the conclusion after the fact that signing it in this form was a mistake. Because the Covenant electorate – although small (about 1 percent) – is primarily small entrepreneurs and the middle class, and the “Polish Deal” in the signed form is just taking them money.
Today, Gowin is fighting for relief for the middle class, i.e. for people earning up to 13,000 in full-time jobs. PLN gross did not pay more. He also talks about relief for people running a business. However, she is afraid that Nowogrodzka may, together with the Left, pass higher taxes for the better earners. And secondly: The agreement has always presented itself as a pro-government formation, and “Order” deprives local governments of billions. So Gowin is fighting for compensation.
“It exploded again”
Shortly after Gowin signed “Lada”, the deputy prime minister began loudly demanding corrections to it. PiS politicians, in turn, compete in pointing out to him in the media that he signed it.
PiS politician: – Gowin and his people behave as if they have lost their minds. One day, Gowin subscribes to something, and then a spokeswoman says it is unacceptable to them.
Co-worker of the PiS chairman: – Kaczyński and Morawiecki are starting to lose their patience with Gowin.
Magdalena Sroka, a spokeswoman for the Gowin party, emphasized that the current provisions of the “Governance” on taxes “are unacceptable” and changes will only be forged. Gowin has a lot of ideas that he presents to the public for adjustments in taxes, so that the middle class and entrepreneurs do not pay extra to the budget. If Gowin allowed for the actual weighting of the middle class and small entrepreneurs, he would be burned in the eyes of his electorate. Therefore, he does not let go and threatens that the alliance between PiS and Left in favor of a tax increase will mean the end of rule United Right.
The new crisis in the ZP is thus kicking in motion again. Gowin Associate:
It exploded suddenly. It seemed that the crisis was under control, but after the signing of the “Polish Deal” it exploded again
Nowogrodzka wants to go around Gowin
Adam Bielan wants to bring Gowin’s head on a tray – which he promised to the PiS president. PiS hawks would also like to get rid of Gowin from the government, but the deputy prime minister still has a dozen loyal deputies in The Seymso it is indispensable to securing a majority for the government.
Nowogrodzka, however, hopes that it will be possible to build a majority in the Sejm so large that Gowin’s “sabers” will no longer be necessary.
Politician from Nowogrodzka:
During the summer holidays or shortly after, PiS may get a small, but still most, without Gowin
From Kukiz along the Mejzę
For now, Nowogrodzka is getting ready for the PiS congress – on July 3. This will be the culmination of the political season. Nowogrodzka dreams of having about 240 deputies in the Sejm. Bielan, who is at war with Gowin, is particularly excited about this. However, PiS politicians from Nowogrodzka have a distance to the vision that Gowin is about to end and his MPs will soon leave him. However, if this had happened, champagne would be launched at the PiS headquarters.
The road to such an advantage is still long. Who would this 240-strong majority consist of? From PiS MPs, Solidarity Poland, Agreements and – these are the planned reinforcements – Kukiz’15 (four MPs) and from the planned circle of MP Łukasz Mejza (here in the power camp you can hear about three), if any of them hatch after taking over someone from the opposition.
If the government gained such support in the Sejm, Jarosław Gowin would be on the verge of being necessary to form a majority, which would weaken his position in the ruling camp. According to Bielanists, a few deputies who are today at Gowin’s side may still get stuck – but such a scenario is not being realized.
A dozen or so members of Gowin for the importance of power
Today the situation is as follows: Gowin has 13 MPs, but it is not a penal group. Anna Dąbrowska-Banaszek (her son is the president Chełm, and the city receives a lot of money from the state) and Wojciech Murdzek, Deputy Minister of Science. Nobody will be cut off for Mieczysław Baszko, because he has already betrayed the PSL, and Stanisław Bukowiec Nowogrodzka tempts him with a good place on the list. Despite their approach, they remain with Gowin. For example, what could happen to Gowin’s loyalists, the deputy prof. Wojciech Maksymowicz (after allegations of experiments on aborted fetuses, Szymon Hołownia left for Poland in 2050) – he himself denies doing anything non-toxic, but he is already burned in the right-wing electorate.
If Gowin lost a few MPs to PiS, he would no longer be necessary to form a majority. Adam Bielan’s followers strive to build a majority without guiltists. Bielan and Gowin are at war.
PiS politician from Nowogrodzka: – Bielan has a plan, but most of all it has a plan to oppress Gowin. Jarosław Kaczyński looks at this war of theirs with a certain amount of amusement.
Although Kaczyński publicly stipulates that this is a matter of feuding Covenant politicians, and not his, he still keeps the green light for the offensive, which is to weaken Gowin and “pluck” him from the MPs. There is no doubt in the Gowin Agreement that it is the PiS president who is behind the endless “coup” in the deputy prime minister’s party.
Bielan creates a party. Willing people will get places on the lists
Bielanists are preparing for a long court battle with Gowin for control over the Agreement. After the first instance judgment, the deputy prime minister is in the lead. Bielan, therefore, begins to create a new formation. It is to have a congress in June, and it will be created from the merger of part of the Agreement with the friendly Republican Party. And then he wants to join the United Right as the fourth coalition partner. However, Gowin does not intend to sign any alliance with Bielan.
PiS politician from Nowogrodzka: – You will have to sign a receipt for cooperation with Bielan’s party. They can also sign up to the “Polish Order” and it will stop there.
Hostile scenario towards Gowin
However, there is also a scenario hostile to Gowin on the table, to first surround Gowin (building a large majority in the Sejm without him), and then force his influence in the government to be trimmed.
Politician from Nowogrodzka:
Gowin will be faced with a choice whether to stay in the government, but under different, changed conditions, or to leave the government himself. Rather, he would stay. It may even last until the next election in the government. Kaczynski would probably leave him as well, but emotions are involved and it is impossible to predict people’s behavior
Today, Gowin has less influence in the government than assumed in the coalition agreement with PiS. The latter guarantees him deputy ministers and a minister in the prime minister’s office, but PiS does not fulfill this obligation.
PiS politician from the environment of President Kaczyński: – We will see what the dynamics will be. It’s hard for him to just take some departments from the ministry, because that would be a slap for him. We do not care about going to war with Gowin now.
Currently, the Gowina resort is a giant, because it has the following departments: economy, construction, tourism and work. Trying to take one away from him would be like an act of declaring open war.
The PiS politician from the president’s entourage: – There are no decisions to reduce the Gowin ministry. He obviously has fewer MPs today than at the beginning of his term of office, but we would prefer him to keep the 11 that he still has today, not that Adam had the satisfaction and they left the opposition.
Bielan and Nowogrodzka will, however, tempt “gowinowców”. The argument is simple: some places on PiS lists in 2023 or earlier to the Sejm and in local elections for those who betray Gowin. – And they ultimately want to expel Jarek from the government – says a person from Gowin’s circle.
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