US military expert Michael Coffman analyzes what the second phase of the war in Ukraine could be. The comment was published on the social network Twitter.
According to him, the attack on Donbass will be the last major one that the Russian military can undertake without joint mobilization. And regardless of the outcome of the battle, after Donbass the Russian army will be exhausted.
The current Russian attack so far resembles an attack on Slavyansk by Izyum, pushing the Severodonetsk ledge southwest of Izyum (west of Kramatorsk) in order to partially cover the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces in the northern part of Donbass. Russian forces need Severodonetsk to control Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
According to the expert, this is a risky operation. Ukrainians are strengthening positions around Kharkov and attacking to threaten the Russian communications needed for this offensive. Even if the occupiers achieve significant success, they will subsequently be vulnerable in these communications.
Ukraine’s armed forces appear to have retreated tactically in some areas, blowing up bridges. At the same time, they could take better positions on the counterattack to disrupt the Russian offensive.
Russian troops suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment, and there were far fewer combat-ready formations. It is not clear what is the current level of staffing of the battalion-tactical groups of the Russian Federation. Coffman is not sure that the reinforcements sent are enough to compensate for previous losses.
In the south, Russian troops were pressed into Mariupol until the last moment. Putin’s statement that they would avoid an attack on Azovstal suggests that the Russian Federation is saving strength for a further attack on Donbass.
It is not yet clear whether the southern axis of the offensive will be anything more than consolidating positions. The troops of the Southern Military District were defeated after two months of fighting. And the greater operational coverage is probably beyond their control. Russian troops southwest of Kherson are trying to strengthen their defenses west of the Dnieper. The units stationed there are relatively light and are under pressure from the Ukrainian armed forces. They may be forced to retreat beyond the Dnieper.
Ukraine is sending reinforcements to Zaporozhye, Donbass and Kharkiv. Russia has made little effort to disrupt land communications between Donbass and the mainland. Expanding Western support with armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery will allow Ukraine to compensate for losses and equip reserve brigades (especially with the artillery and ammunition that Ukraine needs).
But Coffman did not undertake to predict the outcome of the battle, saying the Russian Federation could both win and lose.
The next three weeks will be crucial, he said.
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