Russian Submarine Sighting in South China Sea Stirs Tension
Manila, Philippines – The presence of a Russian submarine in the South China Sea last week has sent ripples of concern through the region, sparking debate about its intentions and potential impact on regional security.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) reported that a Russian UFA 490 submarine was observed approximately 80 nautical miles from the Philippine coast on November 23rd. Upon detecting the vessel, the Philippine Navy dispatched an aircraft and a warship to monitor the situation and establish communication.
According to the AFP’s Facebook post, the Russian submarine responded to the Philippine inquiry, stating that it was awaiting favorable weather conditions before proceeding to the port of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed deep concern over the incident, describing any "intrusion" into the West Philippine Sea—the Philippines’ name for its waters in the South China Sea—as a matter of "grave worry."
This latest development comes amidst mounting tensions in the South China Sea, withputes between China and the Philippines intensifying this year. The region witnessed clashes between Chinese and Filipino coast guard vessels, including one instance where swords and knives were brandished by opposing sides.
The United States, a treaty-bound ally to the Philippines, has pledged to defend the Southeast Asian nation if attacked.
While the motive behind the Russian submarine’s presence is not entirely clear, analysts offer varying perspectives.
Hunter Marston from Australia’s National University posits that the submarine might have chosen this route for its speed and efficiency as the fastest path between Malaysia and Russia. Alternate routes, Marston suggests, could involve circumnavigating the intricate archipelagos of the Philippines and Indonesia or traversing the Taiwan Strait, each posing their own geopolitical risks.
Other analysts, however, see this as a deliberate move with geopolitical implications.
Eduardo Araral, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, asserts that the Russian submarine’s appearancecould be a message intended for the United States.
"It could be a way for the Russians to signal to the Americans that: ‘If you threaten us, we can threaten you back,’" Araral stated in an interview.
This stance is echoed by Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at The Royal United Services Institute, who perceives increased cooperation between China and Russia as a strategy to heighten the anxiety levels of US regional allies and partners.
Havrén Elaborated:
"These actions also ‘demonstrate how China would not necessarily be alone should any crisis escalate.’"
This incident coincides with a trend of closer military ties between Russia and China. Earlier this year, both countries conducted joint naval drills in July and September, solidifying their strategic partnership amid growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. The Philippines’ Armed Forces and Philippine Navy have yet to comment on the incident.
This Russian submarine sighting has undoubtedly raised the stakes in the already sensitive South China Sea. The world watches closely as this regional power play unfolds, with potential ramifications for global security and stability.
