Alexandra Ferguson
(CNN) – As a historic “cyclone bomb” drifts down the west coast, computer prediction models point to a possible autumnal northeast system on the east coast as of Tuesday.
Only it won’t have all the snow that is usually expected from these types of storms. Instead, this intensifying storm will bring extreme winds and heavy rain, the last thing New Yorkers want to see after this year’s devastating flash floods.
“A rapidly developing low-pressure system south of Long Island is likely to produce heavy rainfall throughout the region,” says the National Weather Service in New York.
There are flood and flash flood alerts from southern New Jersey to northern Massachusetts.
25% of all critical infrastructure in the US is at risk of failure due to flooding, new report finds
There is no doubt that the rainfall in the Northeast over the next two days will be due to this strengthening low pressure system. But uncertainty remains about how strong it will be and how close it will be to shore.
“As long as there are two low-pressure zones trying to combine in the warm Gulf Stream off the northeast coast, the models will differ in their solutions,” says Chad Myers, a CNN meteorologist.
Meteorologists are sure there will be showers, but they are not sure how much yet. The Center for Weather Prediction issued a level 1 of 4 “marginal risk” of excessive rainfall on Monday and a level 2 of “slight risk” of excessive rainfall on Tuesday.
“Rain totals at this time appear to be on the order of 50 to 100 millimeters,” wrote the weather service in New York. But some computer weather models show isolated amounts of 127 to 178 millimeters of rain.
Rain forecast for the next 48 hours, in inches.
“Hopefully this scenario does not come true as it would lead to widespread flooding problems,” wrote the New York Weather Service.
Winds are the other problem: the closer the storm is to the northeast coast, the stronger the winds will be for the coastal dwellers. A closer storm also means stronger winds will spread inland.
It is not ruled out that winds exceed 80 km / h in eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, and the wind gusts will be near hurricanes on Cape Cod and the islands.
The winds will be accompanied by coastal flooding, which is possible during high tide cycles on both Tuesday and Wednesday, the weather service said.
A similar system, immortalized by a movie with George Clooney in the 1990s, turns 30 this week. Although meteorologists do not believe that the current system will become “The Perfect Storm”, it will share some similarities in the types of conditions that can be expected.
The National Weather Service in Boston has an interesting article on the anniversary of the storm.
Another storm similar to Tuesday’s Northeast system will try to develop for the weekend, Myers says. “But the power for that one is still off the west coast and it will take a little longer to accurately forecast.”
A “cyclonic bomb” and an “atmospheric river”
Speaking of the West Coast “cyclone bomb”, this storm strengthened to the strongest in history, in terms of pressure, to form off the coast of Washington.
The center of the storm passed just above an ocean buoy, which recorded the record pressure drop.
A cyclonic pump is a system that drops at least 24 millibars of pressure in 24 hours or less, and typically the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
What is a cyclone bomb?
But, as mentioned in last week’s weather bulletin, the related “atmospheric river” is the one that has caused the greatest impact on the West Coast.
An atmospheric river is a narrow band of concentrated moisture that travels more than 2 miles above the ocean and releases rain or snow when it makes landfall, and this was the highest possible level: 5 out of 5.
The atmospheric river has brought more rain in 24 hours in Sacramento, California, than the maximum recorded in one day. And still raining. In San Francisco, they experienced their fourth rainiest day in history.
But the most significant impact has been debris flows and landslides in this drought-stricken region.
You can read more about the atmospheric river impacts and when it will decrease here.
Level 5 atmospheric river could trigger flooding in drought-stricken California
Severe threat increases during the week
Threat level for this Tuesday.
As the storm in the west continues its path east through Tuesday, it will bring with it the threat of severe storms in the central states.
A level 3 out of 5 “increased” risk of severe storms was determined in the central and southern Plains for Tuesday. Overall, the threat of severe storms affects more than 20 million people, including in the cities of Wichita, Kansas; Oklahoma City; and Fort Worth, Texas.
“Severe scattered storms associated with large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from late Tuesday afternoon into the evening,” said the Prediction Center. of Thunderstorms on Monday morning.
This storm system comes on the heels of another system that triggered damaging tornadoes in parts of Missouri and Illinois over the weekend.
On Wednesday, this threat of a severe storm will move south towards the Gulf Coast, where a level 2 out of 5 “mild” risk of severe storms has stood out. This risk zone includes Houston, New Orleans, and Mobile, Alabama, where damaging winds and some tornadoes are possible during the afternoon and evening.
Meteorologists predict a warmer winter
Forecast of general temperatures during the boreal winter. The blue areas are expected to have colder than normal weather, while the orange areas are expected to have warmer temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the outlook for the boreal winter of 2021 last Thursday.
A warmer and drier-than-normal winter is forecast for the southern region of the country, along with a wetter-than-normal winter for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, the agency said.
Overall, cooler and wetter conditions are expected in some parts of the north of the country, and warmer and drier in much of the south, in line with the typical “La Niña” weather pattern.
However, the Southwest may be the hardest hit by this winter’s forecast, as no relief from the drought is expected.
Read more about the winter forecast here.
Iconic palm trees slowly disappear in Florida
When you think of Florida, images of beaches and palm trees immediately emerge. But what if those palm trees were slowly replaced by other trees?
That’s what could happen over time thanks to climate change. Some groups in Florida are choosing to plant oak trees instead of palm trees.
Florida’s beloved palm trees are much less effective at capturing carbon compared to other types of trees.
Read more about how South Florida communities are trying to save the world from the climate crisis, one tree at a time.
Halloween time won’t make you say “boo”
Weather forecast for the weekend. Green means rain; Red means ice; Violet a mixture of rain and ice and Blue means snowfall.
Like many of you on a Monday, we are already looking forward to the weekend. And it is that Halloween time seems to be quite good for most this weekend.
Not counting the aforementioned second storm moving away from the northeast bringing rain from the Appalachians north on Saturday and lingering in New England on Sunday and some scattered showers in the mountainous west, the rest of the country has a dry forecast for the end. of week.
Temperatures will be above normal in the central US on Saturday, but will cool rapidly in the northern plains and the center of the country on Sunday, between 7.5 ° C and 11 ° C cooler than the yesterday.
The southeast will be on the cool side with maximum temperatures between 10 ° C and 15 ° C, and similar temperatures are expected in the northeast, warmer than normal. On the west coast there will be temperatures close to normal, around 15 ° C.
– Monica Garrett, CNN meteorologist, contributed to this report.
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