Given the specificities of the Scottish electoral system, gaining an absolute majority for the Scottish National Party (SNP) was a difficult task that it failed to accomplish. Of the 129 seats, 73 are distributed in single-member constituencies and 56 in a regional vote on party lists, with the more seats a party has gained in single-member constituencies, the fewer seats it receives in the regions. As a result, the SNP, whose candidates won in 62 single-member constituencies, won only two seats in the regional vote, despite the support of a majority of voters. The scales were weighed in favor of the pro-independence by the local Greens, who received eight seats in the regions. Overall, the pro-independence parties voted 50.1% in the regional vote.
It is not clear how the cooperation between the SNP and the Greens will turn out, because ultraliberal ecosocialism is not the ideology that would delight the majority of supporters of the SNP, but it is already a nuance. The course towards the referendum has been taken, and it remains to be seen what steps London will take to counter Edinburgh’s intentions. For Britain, Scotland’s desire to leave the kingdom is an impressive blow internationally, as it is leveling plans to play a major role in the emerging world order, as well as creating a real threat of a constitutional crisis (although there is no constitution in Britain, other terms are difficult) and .
The argument that the September 2014 referendum, in which 55% of Scots chose to remain in the kingdom, was a “generations” vote does not work in this case, as the SNP initially stated that it reserved the right to hold a repeat referendum if the political situation changed radically. Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, which was voted against by the majority of Scots, cannot be described as a radical change. It is also unthinkable to ban the referendum following the example of Catalonia – previous decisions and the fact that opinion polls show that this is not the case – a majority of people in all regions of the kingdom believe that the Scots have the right to vote.
As a result, London’s main weapon clearly promises to be economic arguments – claims that Scottish prosperity will decline after it leaves the kingdom, combined with generous investment in the region’s economy. This weapon was already in use in 2014, partly because concerns about the decline in welfare have led some Scots, especially the younger generation, to re-evaluate their desire for independence, and it is possible that this will work again. Although the Scots will have every opportunity to prove otherwise.
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