Revolutionary theory explains why the fifth wave in the country melted sharply
A Japanese scientist has come up with a revolutionary theory about the coronavirus, which is likely to raise many (so far unjustified) hopes around the world. Scientists are looking for an explanation for the fifth wave in the country, which was the worst since the beginning of the pandemic, but dropped sharply from its record peak and melted.
Yesterday the cases reached their lowest number for the year – 50, and only two died. There are only six cases in the metropolis of Tokyo – at least since May 31, 2020. On November 7, for the first time in 15 months, no deaths were registered from COVID-19 in the whole country. And just three months ago, Japan was under tremendous pressure, with the daily number of new infections reaching almost 26,000.
How did this unexpected end come about after such a relentless increase in cases? And what distinguishes Japan from other developed countries, where the pandemic is currently on the rise? Some scientists give a surprising answer to these questions – according to them, the delta option in Japan has self-destructed.
We know the usual hypotheses for such a decline. Japan, for example, has a high level of vaccination – over 75%. Other potential factors are social distance and wearing masks, which are natural for the Japanese. However, the root cause may have nothing to do with it, but may be related to the genetic changes that the coronavirus undergoes when it reproduces. It is thought to mutate at a rate of two mutations per month.
This is the basis of the revolutionary theory proposed by Ituro Inoue, a professor at the National Institute of Genetics in Japan. According to the teachings,
the delta variant in Japan has accumulated too many mutations
of the key protein nsp14, which is responsible for error correction. As a result, the virus begins to lag behind in correcting these errors and eventually self-destructs.
According to research in Asia, there are more people who have the protective enzyme APOBEC3A, which attacks RNA viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. This enzyme is less common in the populations of Europe and Africa. That’s why researchers at the National Institute of Genetics and the University of Niigata are working to find out how the APOBEC3A protein affects the nsp14 protein and whether it can inhibit the activity of the virus. As part of this study, genetic data on alpha and delta variants from infected people in Japan in the period June-October were analyzed, says the prehistory. Japan Times.
The alpha variant that is
the main engine of the fourth wave
in Japan from March to June this year, shows five main groups of mutations with many others deviating in different directions. In other words, this variant has a fairly high level of genetic diversity. Scientists suggest that the delta variant, which is twice as contagious as the previous ones and causes more severe disease among the unvaccinated, will have an even brighter genetic diversity.
Surprisingly, however, it turns out the opposite. The delta network has only two main groups, and mutations seem to stop abruptly in the middle of their evolutionary process. When they tested the enzyme nsp14, the researchers found that many of the samples had many genetic changes in mutation regions known as A394V.
“We were literally shocked by this finding,”
explains Ituro Inoue to the Japan Times. “The delta variant was highly contagious and pushed out all other variants in Japan. But we think that with the accumulation of mutations it eventually becomes defective and unable to reproduce. Given that the cases have stopped increasing, we believe that in at some point during these mutations, the virus has reached its natural extinction, “said the scientist.
If the virus were alive and well, the cases would certainly start to increase again after the end of the last lockdown, as happened in many other countries with a similar level of vaccination, the geneticist said. His theory, as well as what is happening in Japan, has been the subject of heated debate in recent days.
“Nsp14 interacts with other viral proteins and plays a key role in protecting the RNA of the virus,” explains Prof. Takeshi Urano of the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Shimane. He confirms that there are studies that
a virus with a mutilated protein
nsp14 is almost impossible to reproduce and this may be the explanation for the decline in cases. Substances that neutralize this virus, in turn, can become powerful drugs against it, and according to scientists from Shimane, such a project is already underway.
However, Japan is an anomaly even compared to other countries in the region. As early as the end of August, the delta variant had pushed out the alpha and other variants, while in countries such as India and Indonesia (both were severely affected by the delta variant), the delta was raging in parallel with the alpha variant.
According to Japanese scientists, a similar natural disappearance of the virus can be observed in other countries, although at present there is no evidence that as many mutations in the key protein have accumulated elsewhere as in Japan. However, similar mutations in the A394V region have been found in at least 24 countries.
Ituro Inoue’s theory may also explain why the previous SARS epidemic (SARS) disappeared abruptly in 2003. Experiments with nsp14-induced mutations in the virus that causes this syndrome at one point stopped the virus from reproducing.
Can we
to hope for something similar elsewhere?
“The chances are not zero, but it would probably be overly optimistic, as we have tried to find similar data in other countries, but in vain,” said the scientist. And other variants of the virus are not missing, so in the absence of the dominant delta variant, the terrain is free. Therefore, according to him, control at the external borders is especially important.
When asked if it is possible for the Japanese to have something that other nations lack, scientists say no – ethnic people in East Asia are the same, they say, and yet the phenomenon is only seen in Japan.
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