Experts link the crisis facing the ruling Likud Party in Israel to the possibility of “deliberately” prolonging the ongoing war in Gaza. To save the party’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, from accountability for his political “mistakes.”
Political analysts, in Israel and the United States, also attribute the deterioration of the Likud Party’s popularity and the further threat to its political future. As a result of Netanyahu’s ambitions, which they said prompted him to exclude anyone who dreamed of becoming prime minister as his successor; This led to the party being emptied of suitable “heirs” to win in upcoming elections.
Likud retreated
An opinion poll, the results of which were published by the Israeli newspaper “Maariv” on Friday, and which was conducted in cooperation with the “Lazar” Research Center, showed that the “Likud” party declined to 17 seats in the Knesset (Parliament) after it had 18 seats in the last elections.
On the other hand, Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party won 42 seats in the poll, a record number since its formation.
If elections are held after the war, Likud and its right-wing allies will not be able to form a government, as they are expected to obtain 42 seats together.
According to the same poll, the former head of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad, Yossi Cohen, is the most likely to lead Likud in the future, with a 24% vote, doubling over the current Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, who received 12%.
Fears that Israel will launch a ground attack on the southern Gaza Strip
The American researcher in international relations, Irina Zuckerman, does not see any surprise in the popular crisis facing Likud, saying that “the expected leadership struggle is not surprising,” and considers this part of “Netanyahu’s political legacy.”
She adds, explaining Netanyahu’s policies and personal qualities that led the party to this result, in her estimation:
- Netanyahu is known for maneuvering in the face of obstacles skillfully, and at the same time he does not identify or prepare a clear successor to continue the path after him.
- Besides, promising young politicians who could pose a political threat to him are quickly eliminated.
- Therefore, the line of succession within Likud is unclear. Although the country in general has moved towards the right, especially after October 7, the future of the party itself is not clear.
- If Netanyahu has any interest in preserving the remnants of his legacy, he would push for a successor now rather than engage in an unseemly battle for his position, and at least discuss a timeline that would allow him to resign in a sensible manner, and without further partisan polarization.
Savior from abroad
The Israeli writer, Moshe Nestelbaum, supports what the American researcher said, saying in an article in the Maariv newspaper that Netanyahu does not encourage the presence of heirs, even Likud ministers Yisrael Katz, Nir Barkat, and Avi Dichter, who aspire to the position of prime minister, have realized this. And their dreams were thwarted.
Regarding the Likud Party’s possible way out of this crisis, the Israeli writer says that the party’s decline in popularity may mean the necessity of seeking help from an outsider to lead it, citing as an example the former head of the Mossad, Yossi Cohen.
Prolonging the war “deliberately”
Irina Tsukerman doubts Yossi Cohen’s ability to lead Likud because he did not hold any political leadership position, and the hostage negotiations (Israeli and foreign detainees held by Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip) that he led did not succeed in reaching a result.
The researcher believes that Netanyahu will prolong the war in Gaza “in order to avoid being held accountable for his political and security failures, especially since there are already pressures inside and outside the party demanding that he resign. Therefore, we expect that the war will not end in the near future.”
She also points out that the Likud crisis is not the result of the current war, but that Netanyahu is responsible for its formation over the years, referring to “his unwillingness to listen to warnings regarding Hamas, his refusal to resign for years, and his preference to remain prime minister rather than lead the opposition, all “This irreparably tarnished his image and political legacy.”
Accordingly, “other than the remaining time he has as war prime minister, Netanyahu has no political future, and it will be difficult for him to exercise his influence behind the scenes, because he made many mistakes that he refused to admit until it was too late,” according to Irina Zuckerman.
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2023-11-19 20:42:16
