The order of the factors sometimes does alter the product. The announcements of the judicial reformsare the best proof that to achieve certain objectives the Government you are forced to do complex operations and you don’t always get the proposed result. Political arithmetic is not an exact science. Nor easily mastered, when power is distributed.
The sequence in which they met the initiatives states that Alberto Fernándezhad to subtract to try to add. The diffusion of Court reform committeebefore he announced the project for the federal criminal law it ratifies it. The first one has Christianist DNA. The second, that of Fernández. The first contaminated the second. “Cristina’s defender team and ten more” arrived earlier and made more noise.
How the public agenda was signed gives way to a great question: Did Cristina win, did Alberto win, did both win or did they all lose?
If something is clear it is that To close the internal front, the President opened two external fronts of conflict. On the one hand, with a part of the citizens, who expected something else from him. On the other, with the main opposition force, in which the hardest wing came out strengthened, just when everything advises seeking consensus.
The fear that some members of the cabinet harbored before the announcements seemed to materialize: the Government failed to impose the idea that it intends to improve the justice service. Still less was he able to dispel the suspicion that noble intentions hide the goal of solve Cristina Kirchner’s judicial problems and yours. For a sector of society it is called “impunity project”.
The plan to reform the Court and the presence there of Carlos Beraldi, As the alleged guarantor of the vice president, they tend to consolidate the imputation of a concession to Cristina Kirchner. Or a defection from Fernández. It is plausible. The President refused to advance on the Court until recently and said so. Did they run the bow again?
Fernández did not seem to mind that in order to present his project, he would have to make more concessions than he expected. The drive to clean up a stain that had been left from 16 years ago seemed stronger. The reform of the federal criminal jurisdiction would come to specify what it could not do in 2004, when SRL Néstor Kirchner & Jaime Stiusso dynamited his dreams. The Kirchner marriage is a difficult court in his legal career. Now he did not need to hand over any of his collaborators to continue, as in 2004. Gustavo Beliz had to go into exile after that failure. Arguably, the stellar role of the Secretary of Strategic Planning in developing the current project tastes of revenge (or late vent). But revenge is a dish that must be eaten cold (and sometimes distributed). It doesn’t taste the same.
So far it seems clear that the order of the factors negatively altered what the President intended. In his defense there is an argument, sustained from his environment and to which less partial observers adhere, that would improve the equation. It is worth considering.
Those who defend the safety of advance on the Court They affirm that this concession will not have practical effects, at least in the times that Cristina would seek. They are those who resort to Peronist axioms to maintain that creating a commission is a guarantee of delay or avoidance of what one does not want to do. To strengthen this argument, they add that it is unthinkable that the reform of the Court could be dealt with in the remainder of 2020. Still less in an electoral year like the next. Therefore, they say, “for Alberto it is win-win (win-win): move forward with the reform of the federal jurisdiction and make Cristina happy. “Nothing is so simple or linear. The vice president is not characterized by her credulity. The promises must be kept. There are people who are experts in dealing with bad debts.
The hardest sectors of the opposition, which came out stronger, they fear that those arguments are a trap to get support from some of their legislators when it comes to the Albertist reform. The Cambodian leadership is alert. If that gap were opened, the fragmentation would give the oficialismo sustenance to go for more. Including the Court. For this reason, they highlight some aspects of the reform of the federal jurisdiction that would expose immediate beneficial effects for Christianity.
The eyes are on the article that establishes how the new courts will be covered until the regular magistrates are appointed. A key issue when the final appointment of judges has become a Kafkaesque process. In the meantime, the names of the provisional magistrates will be proposed by a court that Kirchnerism considers friendly and the appointment will depend on the ultra-politicized Council of the Magistracy. It’s not little.
The synchronization that the times of the President and his vice found this time resembles a pyrrhic victory for each one. Or to a zero sum game. Those ties explain part of the government’s difficulties in moving towards some objectives. On many issues, Fernández and Cristina Kirchner are condemned to veto or give in, without anyone finishing. Although sometimes one seems to yield more than the other.
The President’s statements after the announcement consolidate that image. LThe words that had the most echo did not aim to promote the initiative that he cares about, but rather to defend the Christian project. A faithful Albertist recently observed that every time the vice president regains centrality, Fernández looks off-axis and ends up overdrawing. Timely reflection.
In the immediate the government appears to have embarked on an expensive battle in times of scarcity. Neither of the two projects in question appears in the surveys at the top of social demands. Rather the opposite, although the rejection is expressed by Teflon pans.
For this reason, more curious is the crusade to reform a jurisdiction (because that is what it is, and not a comprehensive judicial reform) when it is noted that it does not have assured positive results. Even if he got Congress to approve the late liquidation of power by some federal judges. It would make a wish too many years delayed. But that motivation should be ruled out. It would be too modest an ambition.
So, the big question remains open more than ever: Did Fernández win, did Cristina win, did both win or did they all lose?
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