After a short period of calm experienced by the opposition “Umma” coalition due to its “internal turmoil”, and the coalition parties’ agreement on one candidate for the opposition, they were surprised by the candidacy of another leader, which could split the votes in the Turkish presidential elections scheduled for May 14.
A few days ago, the head of the opposition “Al-Watan” party, Muharram Engeh, announced that the elections would be held, in a move described by opposition supporters as a “stab in the back” by their former comrade, which will disperse the voices of the opposition.
Hours ago, Engh refused demands to withdraw from the candidacy.
Ince split from the Republican People’s Party, the party whose president, Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu, agreed to be nominated by most of the major opposition parties, and established the “Kingdom” party in 2021.
A few days ago, a storm subsided within the Ummah Alliance, with the return of Meral Aksner, the head of the Good Party, to the coalition table from which she had withdrawn. In protest of Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, she then agreed to run in return for the coalition’s response to other demands of her.
“Presentiment”
Turkish political analyst, Javad Gök, describes Muharram Ince’s candidacy as a “bad omen” for Kılıçdaroğlu because some of the votes that were guaranteed in his favor will be split in favor of several candidates.
Gok adds to “Sky News Arabia” that the media affiliated with the ruling party “rejoiced at Ince’s candidacy, but rather tries to support him with all its might, and talks about great chances for him to mobilize the largest number of votes in his favor, with the aim of further fragmenting the opposition.”
Nation Alliance move
The opposition coalition took steps to prevent the fragmentation of votes.
- Leaders of the Republican People’s Party asked him to withdraw, but he refused, saying: “Do not convince me, but convince the people who want me to be the candidate first, if you can convince them,” and “convince the 80,000 young people who applied for membership in our party just last week.”
- He stated that he could support Kilicdaroglu if he reached the elections for a second round.
- Despite this, the deputy of the Republican People’s Party in Elazig, Gursel Erol, expects Ince to withdraw from the candidacy, describing him as “a smart and rational man”, and also inviting him to return to the ranks of his old party.
Cavat Gök comments on Muharrem Ice’s sayings: “If you intend to support Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round, why are you running in the first place and crumbling the votes?”
The Turkish analyst points out that Kilicdaroglu wants to win in the first round, and that the elections do not reach a run-off; because his chances will be less then; Because the nation’s alliance that supports him will work strongly during the first round, and may not find this support in the second.
chances of success
- The latest opinion polls conducted after the announcement of Ince’s candidacy for the elections showed that there are 3 percent who intend to vote for him.
- According to the head of Max Research Foundation, Mehmet Ali Kulat, Muharrem Ince’s share of votes has started to increase, and he will soon witness a significant increase in votes.
- Kolat adds that the name of Muharram Ince “is always heard among young people,” and if he gets 5 or 7 percent, it will have an impact on the elections going to the second round, and on the nation’s coalition losing the elections.
Who is Muharrem Ince?
- He was born on May 4, 1964 to an immigrant family from Greece that settled in Lofa State.
- He was the candidate of the Republican People’s Party, in the 2018 presidential elections, and won more than 30 percent of the vote.
- He was one of the opponents of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu assuming the leadership of the Republican People’s Party and lost to him in the party elections.
- He promoted his secular nationalist model on a nationwide tour called The Homeland Movement in 1000 Days in 2020.
- He defected from the Republican People’s Party and founded the Kingdom Party in 2021.
