With experts who spoke to “Sky News Arabia” suggesting that the military confrontation is the closest between China and Taiwan, they also pointed out that there is a scenario through which the crisis can be resolved peacefully without war.
In recent weeks, the parties to the crisis (China and the United States) have taken measures described as escalatory, including Washington’s announcement of new arms deals with Taiwan worth $619 million, particularly strengthening its air force, while Beijing increased its military budget by 7.2% for 2023.
Taiwan accused China of raising the budget in preparation for the invasion of the island, while China said Washington was fueling conflict in the region by providing Taiwan with advanced weapons.
According to the principle of “one China”, which Beijing considers a red line that cannot be crossed, Taiwan is part of its territory, although Taipei runs itself with a system of self-rule, accusing Washington of encouraging “separatists” on the island to impose influence on it and the surrounding global trade corridors instead of China.
Beijing has repeatedly threatened not to rule out the use of force and the invasion of the island, and the imposition of direct rule on it, if the separatists responded to the “incitement” of Washington.
Peaceful solutions exist
Dr. Jasser Matar, a specialist in international affairs, takes the initiative to say: “Of course there is a peaceful solution to the crisis, as was the situation in Ukraine, but the question here is whether the parties are ready to establish frameworks to be agreed upon to resolve the crisis politically?”
Briefly explaining the reason for the insistence of each party (China and the United States) on their positions at the present time, and the possibility of overcoming it to a peaceful solution that protects the world from evils and new crises, Matar says:
• China believes that Taiwan is part of its territory, and that its complete separation from it is a violation of its sovereignty, and threatens its influence in the South China Sea and its straits through which 60% of world trade passes.
• As for Washington, which is moving Taiwan in this crisis, it believes that China’s influence in that region threatens its trade, and China’s complete acquisition of Taiwan means the consolidation of Beijing’s influence in the South China Sea; This explains the US leaders’ statements of their intention to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion.
• The solution, then, is to hold direct negotiations between Washington and Beijing, which define regulatory frameworks for the movement of trade there, and establish international supervision over the corridors to be neutral, and for China to stop its military maneuvers that disrupt trade, in exchange for the United States adhering to the principle of “one China”, which means the subordination of Taiwan China’s territory while retaining special power and autonomy.
• Diplomatic and political norms say that this is the available peaceful solution. Otherwise, confrontation will inevitably flare up between the two parties.
time element
“China is a country that is difficult to easily provoke or drag into war, and it is taking the natural paths to confront the Taiwan crisis before any confrontation,” as the writer specializing in Chinese affairs, Abdul Majeed Al-Seasi, reveals from its movements.
Among these paths, according to the politician, is “betting on time” and “developing its military and economic capabilities so that it is difficult for Taiwan to think of taking measures that would anger Beijing.”
The analyst specializing in this file expects that “the United States’ attempts to exploit Taiwan to provoke China will not work,” and Washington “will not be drawn into a war with China,” wondering: “Can Taiwan confront Beijing as Ukraine did before Russia?” Taiwan’s ability to bear the bill to wage a proxy war.
He concluded by saying, “Resorting to the military option is possible, but the thinking of the leadership in China will make them exhaust all solutions before resorting to this option.”
