How much is ASPI worth? It is not a trivial matter. Because Autostrade per l’Italia is 88% owned by Atlantia. Atlantia is a stock listed on Piazza Affari, and is in the portfolio of many Italian savers. Knowing how much ASPI is worth determines, accordingly, how much the Atlantia title is worth. The Exchange Projection Studies Office made an analysis. And he discovered a potential profit of 4,000 euros, per thousand shares, under the Atlantia title. If these conditions occur.
The recent history of the stock
Let’s start with historical data. The title Atlantia (MIL-ATL) hit its all-time high in May 2018. The action then reached € 28.6. The tragedy of the Morandi bridge, which directly involved the company, saw prices drop to 17 euros.
Between autumn 2018 and winter 2019, Atlantia regained ground. In July 2019, exactly one year ago, prices had risen to 25 euros, so very close to the historic high of 28.6 euros. From the low of September 2018, after the collapse of the bridge, in July 2019, the stock has gained almost 50%.
From that moment a new progressive descent began. That is, since the rumors for the revocation of the concession to Autostrade have resumed with the new government. With direct damage to Atlantia. In February, before the Covid cleaver fell on the stock exchanges, an Atlantia title was worth around 19 euros.
A potential profit of 4,000 euros, per thousand shares, with the Atlantia share. If these conditions occur
Today, with the agreement between the state and the Benetton family, the title has been quoted for several sessions around 14 euros. But at these prices Atlantia is underestimated. According to analysts, it is a discount from a minimum of 10% to a maximum of 30% compared to the current values (14 euros in fact).
Where does this value come from? From a simple calculation. According to the agreements, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti will have to pull out around 4 billion in order to hold 33% of ASPI. Which means that Autostrade per l’Italia is valued between around 6 and 8 billion. This leads to an implicit value of Atlantia between 15.5 and 18 euros.
Thus, the shareholders who have the stock at 14 euros in their portfolio could soon resell it at 18 euros. They would make a gain of 4 euros per share. Imagining having a thousand shares would make a profit of 4,000 thousand euros.
to know more
Do you want to know how CDP will acquire the majority of Autostrade? Read who.
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