CORONAVIRUS. If the Covid-19 figures continue to move in the right direction, the prospect of a second epidemic wave again raises fears of a possible particularly acute deadly recurrence.
In France, as in many other countries, the time has come for the gradual lifting of the containment measures implemented several weeks ago to combat the spread of the coronavirus. If the deconfinement is motivated by figures in constant positive evolution, as well as by the need for a resumption of economic activity, it is not without risk. Confinement did indeed make it possible to limit the saturation of hospitals as much as possible, but it prevented immunity for the population. In France, the Pasteur Institute estimates the rate of the immune population at less than 6%. With people out again and despite masks and barrier gestures, a second epidemic wave seems inevitable. It remains to determine the moment when it will appear, but also and above all its intensity. Many voices are heard to speak of a second wave at the end of the summer, but some are more pessimistic than others. AFP quotes a senior American public health official, Robert Redfield, who said he feared for next winter an episode “even more difficult than the one we just experienced”, due to a coincidence with the seasonal flu. German virologist Christian Drosten, government adviser, also warned of the likelihood of a second wave more powerful than the first. Pierachille Santus, pulmonology professor in Milan also quoted by AFP, considers a contrario that we should expect a second wave “probably less than the first”. It is therefore time for uncertainty, even if it now seems inevitable that the coronavirus will cause further damage in the months to come.
A study by the Pasteur Institute, highlighted by Le Figaro, puts forward a new hypothesis as to how the coronavirus of Chinese origin settled in France. Assuming that Covid-19 gradually mutated while spreading over the territory, the researchers analyzed 97 genomes of the virus, drawn at random in France between January 24 and March 24. It appears that 90% of the strains circulating in France belong to the same strain family, scientifically called a clade. The Pasteur Institute revealed that the arrival of this clade could go back to mid-January in the Hauts-de-France, while remaining cautious on this scenario. “Other avenues cannot be excluded either,” warns Etienne Simon-Lorière, one of the researchers who worked on this study. From all this emerges the high probability that there was not a single “zero patient” at the origin of the epidemic wave experienced by France, but indeed several. “We do not find the first strains identified in France in the current epidemic in late January and early February,” said Etienne Simon-Lorière, still with Le Figaro. France was therefore struck by several strains of the virus, caused by the first “clusters” identified in the country, that of the religious gathering in Mulhouse being the one that would have caused the most damage.
It was expected given the figures this weekend. The number of coronavirus deaths in France has crossed the symbolic bar of 25,000 dead on Monday, May 4, 2020. There are 306 more deaths compared to yesterday’s assessment to reach 25,201 deaths. The latest deconfinement cards have also been revealed and changed little compared to the previous day. Here are the figures to remember this Monday evening:
- 131 863 cases confirmed by PCR (Ehpad included), or 576 more
- 71 390 cases in Ehpad, or 623 more
- 25 201 deaths in total (Ehpad included), or 306 more
- 15,826 hospital deaths, an additional 243
- 9,375 deaths in nursing homes, 63 more
- 25,548 hospitalizations in progress, 267 fewer
- 3696 people currently in intensive care, 123 less
- 51,371 people discharged from hospital, an additional 587
NB: the data relating to people hospitalized and in intensive care presented above correspond to the number of patients in the course of care and not to the accumulation since the beginning of the epidemic. In total, there were 93,372 hospitalizations. Similarly, hospitalizations and additional resuscitation cases in 24 hours correspond to net figures, taking into account cures and deaths. In the last 24 hours, roughly, 689 more hospitalizations have been recorded and 84 admissions to intensive care.
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12:23 – An inevitable second wave
Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva, shares the consensus opinion that a second epidemic wave is to be feared. “Mechanically, the end of confinement will lead to an increase in the number of contacts, but which can be offset by other interventions,” he explained.
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12:00 – The testimony of the infected patient in December
Four months after feeling the first symptoms, Amirouche Hammar was therefore identified as having coronavirus disease. His passage to the hospital dates back to the end of December 2019 and yet the first cases of Covid-19 were identified in France on January 24. He decided to testify with BFM TV.
???? “I was told: what you have is very serious”
The patient infected in December with the coronavirus testifies on BFMTV pic.twitter.com/vlvnFhKqBv
– BFMTV (@BFMTV) May 5, 2020
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11:47 – A mutant and therefore elusive virus?
The discovery by a team of Chinese scientists of 33 variants of the new coronavirus in a recent study, pre-published on the MedRxvid site, highlights that “the capacity of this coronavirus to mutate has been very underestimated so far”. A mutant virus would also make it more difficult to find an effective vaccine, each strain having different characteristics. It was widely believed that Covid-19 was stable, but these many variants, 19 of which had never been observed, “suggest that we have only a very limited understanding of the true diversity of forms of the virus in circulation” , points out the Chinese epidemiologist Li Lanjuan. Among the variants of the coronavirus discovered by Chinese scientists, some of them are more virulent than others, including one strain that has a viral load 270 times higher than the most harmless. This strain would be the same as that which is most widespread in Europe, and which also prevails in New York.
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10:58 – Covid in France in December? Details of Professor Cohen’s revelations
The head of the intensive care unit at Bondy Hospital detailed what was established in his hospital, with the discovery of a case of Covid-19 in December. He explained that tests were done retrospectively, which explains why he could not alert the authorities. “On an idea from Jean-Ralph Zahar, who is our professor of hygiene, we resumed all the PCRs that had been tested in patients who had pneumonia in December and in January for which the diagnosis was negative. patients, we had one that was positive at Covid-19, on December 27, when he was hospitalized with us, at Jean-Verdier, “he said. This patient has been tested twice, and tested positive twice.
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10:26 – Lyon: soldiers called in to reinforce hospitals
In Lyon, soldiers have been deployed to reinforce hospitals against the coronavirus epidemic. Logisticians from the 7th Equipment Regiment (RMAT) were assigned to a city hospital to help “their civilian counterparts in the fight against the virus, as part of Operation Resilience,” reports Franceinfo.
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10:02 – Encouraging results from Tocilizumab for treating severe cases
This medication, usually used to treat polyarthritis, has shown encouraging signs in patients severely affected by coronavirus infection. A single injection was enough to treat Marc-Antoine, who had Covid-19, according to his testimony on BFM TV. For the moment, this treatment is not yet recognized by the health authorities but tests are underway. At the Foch hospital in Suresnes (Hauts-de-Seine), more than 50 patients were treated with Tocilizumab, and the vast majority of them have recovered from coronavirus.
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09:50 – Reunion, the only French department with zero deaths
After the first death in Lozère a few days ago, La Réunion is now the only French department not to have had a single death from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic. The island has four hospitalizations and two people in the intensive care unit. 424 cases of contamination were identified.
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09:24 – “We could prove that the coronavirus has a smell”
At the Maisons-Alfort veterinary school, tests started a week ago to check if dogs can detect Covid-19. The first results are encouraging: “We were convinced by what we saw: two dogs detected samples, this already proves that the coronavirus has an odor”, explains Eric Gully, SDIS 77 departmental technical advisor, who however called for caution, the study not yet finished.
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09:05 – WHO on the hypothesis of a virus created in the laboratory
While several American leaders have claimed that the Covid-19 coronavirus was created in the laboratory, in this case in Wuhan, the World Health Organization intervened to deny these claims, deemed “speculative”. “We are focusing on the evidence we have, and the evidence we have from sequencing and everything that has been passed on to us is that the virus is naturally occurring. Science must be at the center. Science will find the answers, “said Michael Ryan, director of emergency programs at WHO.
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