It seems that there will be a hot summer, and most likely the early elections will be on July 11. Will there be a shift in the configuration in the parliament, political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov told flashnews.bg.
– What political summer to expect and what election campaign?
– The campaign this time will be different. At least, because the epidemiological situation has a clearer prognosis. The wave passes. Now the political parties will conduct a more active election campaign. Politicians will continue to indirectly target the media and social networks.
– Do you expect a different configuration in the next parliament?
– I expect the patriotic parties to unite in the near future. Even if they do not unite, they will reach a consensus on a pre-election agreement. They saw that they were scattering the vote in the previous elections. Their result will not be a mechanical sum of the results on April 4, but it will certainly guarantee their return to parliament. This means that other parties may not enter.
It is likely that the movement around Manolova, Doncheva and Babikyan will not generate this protest vote, which they channeled in the previous elections. The parties on the edge do not repeat their results unless something sensational is produced. Apart from the Audit Committee, they did not produce anything and did not leave a clear imprint in politics. However, there are 2 months and nothing is known what will happen. Otherwise, the other participants in parliament will be the same. There is a possibility of shifting first, second, third place. Sociologists have yet to say what will happen.
– What are the chances in this case for the next regular government? Constitutional law experts even predict a caretaker government with a functioning parliament.
– It is possible that this will happen. This is not scary. After all, things are happening around the world – we are still learning democracy in essence. I can give Belgium and Italy as examples. It is not a problem for politicians not to understand each other and for there to be political shifts, but it is important for the state to go and for the institutions to work. It is important not to fall into a situation of free fall, because politics is not hang gliding.
There are important things to solve in the country – the end of the year is coming, we need a new budget, new sanitary measures, a recovery plan. And there are presidential elections before the end of the year. It is good for our politicians to start behaving as such, and not as participants in neighborhood quarrels.
– What is your forecast for the turnout? Will the summer season have an impact?
– There may be fewer voters. But we may also miss something and the events so far in the parliament to mobilize people who did not vote on April 4 and turn out to be more than the people who did not go to the polls because of the holidays. Maybe instead of 51% we can see 61% voting. There is such an option.
Will machine voting refuse people to vote and what will be its impact on turnout?
This question is used for election use. The machine that saw it up close and voted with it on April 4 knows that voting is easy. It’s easier than an ATM when you withdraw money. However, the CEC needs to make a campaign, videos on how to vote for people in three or four steps and see that it is easy.
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