/View.information/ 1. What occurs in such a short while with the world economic system might be represented figuratively as a part transition of a substance from a liquid to a stable state or as an immediate crystallization of a supersaturated resolution when a stable particle enters it. In any case, it’s the crossing of the bifurcation level, after which the state of the system is troublesome to foretell. That’s, we’re coping with the subcritical bifurcation. Nevertheless, intelligent minds will need to have drawn part house, part trajectories, and many others. to simulate what awaits us tomorrow. I’ll attempt to do that utilizing instinct.
2. First we outline what’s a crucial parameter resulting in a bifurcation level. In my view, any worth characterizing the diploma of division of labor (SRD) might be thought-about such – for instance, the ratio of world commerce to world GDP, and many others. This parameter is consistently growing, considerably earlier than the restructuring of the world order, i.e. the governance construction of the worldwide economic system and society, together with state budgets, laws regulating commerce, and many others. If we introduce a worth characterizing the benevolence/hostility of the world order in relation to the world division of labor, then this worth will likely be inversely depending on the overall world army finances and on the unfold of the nations’ cash emissions from the world common. We name this worthwhile favor the division of labor in DRT. Within the remaining evaluation, it’s the SRD/DRT ratio that issues. The better this ratio (the better the division of labor and the much less benevolence of the system to this course of), the extra unstable the state of the system. Through the years, SRD has steadily elevated and DRT has decreased. Thus, the SRD / DRT ratio approached crucial.
3. What occurred? With the appearance of the coronavirus pandemic, the crucial parameter of SRD/DRT elevated sharply, as as a result of quarantine measures, the system’s favorability in direction of the division of labor dropped sharply and handed the bifurcation level. Thus, the system received right into a scenario that within the conduct of nonlinear programs known as Holocaust – that’s, a pointy shift of all system variables when a crucial parameter passes via the bifurcation level. We have been in a crucial zone and would quickly be ejected to a different attractor. We are going to discover ourselves close to a brand new attractor, there is no such thing as a going again.
The projection of the motion across the attractor on the airplane offers cyclical processes – there are all types of financial cycles.
4. The brand new cycles could have totally different intervals and values and interdependencies, and perhaps even new coordinates will seem, however normally they are going to be much like what we have now now. In my view, we will likely be chosen by the proximity of the brand new attractor, nearer to it by dissolving the precipitated salt (or by melting the stable) round new facilities of exercise (China, and many others.). Who will succeed on this matter (heating the system) is the topic of separate consideration. Because it heats up, it’ll method a brand new attractor and rotate, creating financial cycles.
5. The heating facilities will change. In response to the outcomes of the method, there could also be a sudden change of chief, for instance, China will exchange the US. It is usually inevitable that extra scorching spots will seem, that are referred to as the poles of a multipolar world order. Not all the things will warmth up without delay, so many nations will likely be virtually excluded from the final financial system. However with out altering the equations that decide the conduct of the system (capitalism), the system will inevitably warmth up and globalization will start once more. Solely the genetic composition of the world’s international elite will change – the contribution of Asians will improve. Mainly, nothing will change.
Remark from the writer:
Another choice is feasible, in which there’s not sufficient vitality to soften the frozen international economic system. On this case, we observe the collapse of the system, the disappearance, the destruction of civilization, tradition, and many others. Briefly – the apocalypse. And we’re ready for the Messiah. Which is mainly one of the best of the outcomes.
Translation: world immediately information
#part #transition #world #economic system
