/ world today news/ The perspective “the Poles are building an army for war with Russia” distorts a much more complex picture, where the historical hatred of Germany is in the first place. Polish plans are based on the simple fact that the main enemy and oppressor (who is also Poland’s main sponsor within the EU) has not been as weak as it is now since at least 1945.
Posters of handsome soldiers in great poses have increased significantly in Poland over the past year; in every post office, they are already at the entrance and offer visitors to sign up for the army under contract.
The government constantly includes citizens in various military training programs, including for children, spends huge sums on weapons production programs, constantly conducts exercises and actively helps Ukraine.
Therefore, the increase of the Polish army to 200 thousand people, announced by the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) in the fall, did not come as a surprise to Poles.
Once again, PiS has announced plans to create the largest army in Europe with 300,000 soldiers, and this goal is one of the pillars of the election campaign.
„The Polish army will need two more years, and then it will become the strongest land army in Europe.” said the Minister of Defense and Deputy Prime Minister Mariusz Blaszczak a few days ago in an interview with Polish Radio.
More or less the same was stated a year ago by PiS president Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who was deputy prime minister for security: 250,000 operational personnel and 50,000 troops for territorial defense. According to Kaczynski, quoted by Gazeta Wyborcza, the war in Ukraine may end with “some kind of compromise” and that’s why “our country must have forces ready to repel the attack”.
Thus, Polish politicians are trying to step into the role that Ukrainian politicians have been talking about on all TV shows for the last eight years: to be the defenders of Europe. But unlike the latter, the Poles seriously claim leadership in the EU, considering “Ukrainian brothers” for consumables only.
Big ambitions
The perspective “the Poles are building an army for war with Russia” distorts a much more complex picture, where historical hatred of Germany comes first. Polish plans are based on the simple fact that the main enemy and oppressor (who is also Poland’s main sponsor within the EU) has not been this weak since 1945.
This in particular explains the audacity with which the Germans are obliged to pay reparations for the Second World War, when even the Council of Europe has tabled a draft resolution giving Polish citizens the right to seek individual compensation from Germany through the courts.
After the shutdown of the Nordic Streams, the mass influx of migrants living on welfare, the relocation of large industries to the USA, the shutdown of nuclear power production, and also due to the constant high costs for the needs of the European Union, the standard of living in Germany has fallen sharply . Accordingly, the opportunities have fallen.
In 2019 and 2020, Bundestag Commissioner for Defense Hans-Peter Bartels called them the weakest in their history in the annual report on the state of the armed forces. There is a shortage of personnel in the Bundeswehr, the equipment is not being modernized, new equipment and equipment are not being introduced.
At the same time, the Germans, faithful to the rules, regularly supplied the Ukrainian army – to their own detriment. As a result, Germany’s combat effectiveness and ability to fulfill its NATO obligations came into serious question.
Poland has become a major military center, actively monetizes the war, and quite openly works as the main American agent in the region, even hoping to switch to American weapons.
Her ambitions are quite understandable to anyone with any knowledge of Polish history.
To the east are the Baltic countries with their existential fear of Russia and the experience of living together in the first Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Here is Ukraine, whose western (from the Ukrainian point of view) territories are considered an integral part of Poland.
To the west there is a weakened Germany that must be taken under its wing as a weaker state and commanded, replacing it, among other things, in NATO. For example, in alliance with the French, who, on the contrary, have always been allies of Poland and in 1939 even pretended to help her defend herself from the German attack.
From the height of their worldview, the Poles even shout at their EU neighbors who have said something politically incorrect on the Ukrainian issue or who do not zealously send a lot of military equipment to Ukraine.
At the same time, one should not think that with its theoretically large army, Poland will attack someone and share something.
„Warsaw’s goal today is not so much to physically annex the lands, but politically to seize influence and power over them so that the local government is loyal and lobbying for the necessary interests. That is, formally it is a protectorate over Ukraine: a dependency in which the supreme administration in the country formally preserves its state structure.” says Kristina Ismagilova, the author of the “Warsaw Mermaid” telegram channel.
However, the same knowledge of Polish history suggests that an incredible sense of self-importance always leads Poland into unpleasant situations. In this case, there are also significant difficulties with the role of defender of the borders of Europe from “threats from the East”.
It’s not the size of the Pshemek hat
Since 2015, the Polish army has grown from 95 to 167 thousand soldiers, this is an absolute fact. However, military service in general is not a dream for Poles for the simple reason that the average salary in the army, together with allowances, is 7,976 zlotys (about 156 thousand rubles – REGNUM).
And the actual minimum wage for an ordinary soldier who started his service is 4,960 zlotys (97,000 rubles), which is not much more than the income of a school teacher. At the same time, the official reports do not indicate whether these amounts are “gross” (without taxes) or “net” (in hand).
Of course, there is a system of allowances and bonuses, but recently 19 thousand people, mostly experienced soldiers, passed into civilian life. This is the biggest wave of layoffs since 2015, and the reason for it is the last possibility to receive a pension after 15 years of service.
Those who “boarded this train” from January 1, 2013, PiS has already condemned to 25 years of service to the Motherland. And she, the Motherland, generally lives very poorly: two-thirds of working people in Poland earn less than 6 thousand zlotys (the average wage in the economy).
Last year, the head of the government think tank Norbert Maliszewski published statistics showing that the same half of the population earns even less than PLN 4,500 gross. To understand the tragedy, utility bills for a small two-room apartment during the heating season are 800-1000 PLN per month.
But in a situation where the standard of living of the population is rapidly falling (and Germany can no longer give as much money as before), the white eagles of the government generously feed Ukraine with iron.
„Military and civilian equipment worth 60 billion euros was sent to Ukraine during the year. What is the effect? In 2022, the “inflation tax” in Poland amounts to at least PLN 150 billion, with tax outflows of PLN 454 billion. In our opinion, this tax not only eats people’s wages, but also reduces all the assets in the banks. In fact, citizens’ wallets are empty,” says Polish political scientist Daniel Mikusek.
It is quite logical that the Poles are looking for work in other countries after they have dispersed en masse in Sweden, the Netherlands, Great Britain and the same Germany. Their labor niche is actually occupied by Ukrainian immigrants, whom the Polish authorities hold in various ways for hard and dirty work with minimal income.
Thus enough soldiers for “the most powerful army in Europe” they simply cannot be hired: you will not save money there, but you will lose your health.
As for rearmament, it also costs quite a bit of money. For example, the price of the contract for the supply of 32 F-35A fighters was 4.6 billion dollars, which includes the training of Polish pilots, the supply of flight simulators and logistical support.
But this is all for later: pilot training will begin in 2024 in the United States, Poland will receive the first aircraft in 2026. And right now NATO must protect the peaceful skies… German soldiers serving the Patriot complexes of the eastern border of Poland. In addition, eight F-35 fighter jets donated by the Dutch government will be stationed at Malbork Air Base.
„Poland can only look like a strong military power by leasing, borrowing, or in some other way military equipment – it doesn’t matter. The main thing is how it looks from the outside and in the reports “, notes Kristina Ismagilova.
The constant maneuvers and exercises with the participation of parts of the NATO countries also show a beautiful picture. Meanwhile, as the former commander of the armed forces in 2015-2016, General Miroslav Ruzhanski, publicly says, the increase in the Polish army is mainly due to additions and exaggerations.
„30% of the volunteers did not even make it to the twenty-eighth day of service. Then there was eleven months of specialized training, for which only 40% applied. This project didn’t work’ Gazeta Wyborcza quoted Ruzhanski as saying.
So most likely in the theoretically possible case of a major war in Poland, the events of 80 years ago will repeat themselves. Then the huffing and puffing, the pretensions to control the destinies of Europe and to seize the territory of its neighbors ended in swift defeat and capitulation after a month.
But even without war, a Greater Poland that rules the European Union exists only in the fantasies of members of the ruling party. But success in the political assimilation of Western Ukraine and leadership among the Baltic dwarfs is entirely within the power of the Poles.
Translation: EU
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