/ world today news/ On the morning of November 24, a four-day truce began to operate in the Gaza Strip. Let’s recall that according to its terms, Hamas released 50 hostages (women and children) in exchange for Israel’s release of 150 prisoners (also women and minors).
In addition, Israel pledged to limit the bombing of the northern part of the Gaza Strip (declaring a “quiet hour” from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.) and also completely abandon the bombing of the southern part.
As part of the agreements, it all started with a ceasefire. Then (Israel insisted) Hamas terrorists were the first to free the hostages: a group of 13 Israelis left for Egypt. In addition to them, the Palestinians also released foreigners (12 Thai citizens). The Israelis responded by freeing 39 Palestinian prisoners (24 women and 15 teenagers), who were handed over to the Red Cross.
The next release will most likely take place tomorrow – as part of the next truce day. Unless, of course, it’s broken. “The truce is very fragile. Any breach, any shelling or killing may lead to its destruction” international political scientist Elena Suponina reminds IA Regnum.
As The New York Times notes, the history of hostilities between Israel and Hamas is littered with cease-fires and truces that have been broken or barely kept. In 2014, the military conflict between them lasted for 51 days, during which a ceasefire agreement was reached 9 times.
The parties will now use the truce to strengthen their positions. Israel will redeploy its troops, Hamas will strengthen its shelters, and international organizations will be able to deliver humanitarian aid and at least some medicine to Gaza (according to the World Health Organization, 21 of 24 hospitals in Gaza are completely out of order).
And the question is who will use this time better. Who benefits the most from this?
„Each side interpreted the truce as its own tactical victory. The Israelis claim they have so weakened Hamas that the radicals have made concessions. The Palestinians, for their part, argue that Israel has failed to achieve its goals. He failed to free the hostages by military means, then entered into negotiations, “ says Elena Suponina.
Overall, the Palestinian side is now the biggest gainer. For Hamas, winning the conflict will be a matter of mere survival, as well as forcing Israel to stop the military operation – and the current truce is being positioned by the terrorists as an important step in that direction.
„Israel thought it could free the captives through unprecedented killing and destruction and announced that it would not accept a cease-fire. After about 50 days and in the face of popular struggle and resistance on all fronts, we managed to reach a truce in accordance with the terms of Hamas and the resistance groups, ” said Hamas Politburo head Ismail Haniyeh.
From this perspective, the truce became the “Overton window” – it moved the possibility of a cease-fire from the impossible (as the Israelis imagined it) to the negotiable.
According to Elena Suponina, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now in the most difficult situation. He is the biggest loser. Netanyahu constantly talks about the need to completely destroy the radical groups in Gaza. Going into negotiations, however, he admitted that he had set himself impossible goals.
Yes, Netanyahu himself denies changing his position. He called the deal “difficult but right decision” and added that the path to destroy Hamas will continue. “We will continue the war until we achieve all our goals. Until we eliminate Hamas, return all the kidnapped and disappeared, and ensure that there are no elements in the Gaza Strip that threaten Israel”said the Prime Minister.
His problem, however, is that the very idea of a truce has already caused unrest in the cabinet. A number of radical parties (notably Otzma Yehudit, which has 6 seats in the Knesset, headed by National Security Minister Itamar ben Gvir) have already said that the decision was wrong.
That it is impossible to choose children from children and women from women, that Netanyahu should have demanded the release of all hostages. And that the deal will only increase international pressure on Israel to finally end the operation.
Some political forces even threatened to leave the ruling coalition. Yes, they have so far refrained from such radical steps, but the vacillation over the truce has shown how fragile Israel’s war-hardened power is.
Finally, the truce brings Israel out of war madness and forces the world to think about what Tel Aviv will do with Gaza after a war, even a successful one, that ends with the destruction of Hamas.
„The Israelis come up with one strategy after another. Some are very strange – for example, about the resettlement of most Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to neighboring Egypt. Of course, Cairo accepted such proposals with irritation, ” says Elena Suponina.
According to her, there is an obvious stalemate here for Tel Aviv – yet Hamas is not so much a problem as a consequence of the real problem. The Israelis are not ready to create a Palestinian state, and without one, instability in the region will continue. Here, both countries and the international community are at a dead end, the expert believes.
Fortunately for Netanyahu, he has every chance of once again driving the Israeli cabinet and population into a war frenzy – because the truce won’t last long.
Yes, the agreement provides for the possibility of extension. For each additional day, Hamas will release 10 more hostages, receiving in return 30 prisoners from Israeli prisons. The problem, however, is that Hamas’s “exchange fund” is limited.
Initially, it was reported that the terrorists managed to kidnap about 240 people. However, some of them died of their wounds and another 50 (according to Hamas) were killed during the Israeli bombardment. About 35 more are in the hands of Islamic Jihad, and some are controlled by other groups.
Some of them are basically foreign citizens and that is why they are not particularly interesting for Israel. That is, simply put, after the release of 50 people, Hamas will have enough hostages to extend the truce for a week, two at most.
And then Israel will again be able to resume war for the sake of war. Well, or for the sake of elusiveness and unrecognized clearly goals like the exodus of the Palestinians to Egypt. And these goals, as they believe in Tel Aviv, can only be achieved if the Gaza Strip is occupied by Israeli troops.
Translation: ES
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