/ world today news/ Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan admitted for the first time that Baku and Yerevan are discussing an exchange of territories. What specific territories are we talking about, what importance do they have for the survival of Armenia, and what does Azerbaijan think about it?
In the past few days, the Prime Minister of Armenia has made some surprising statements regarding the future of Armenia and the peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
For starters, Nikol Pashinyan said he was “not sure” that Azerbaijan intended to sign a peace agreement based on a number of agreed principles. Earlier, the Armenian Prime Minister, on the contrary, claimed that these same “three principles” were agreed upon with Baku.
The principles, according to Pashinyan, are that both countries mutually recognize territorial integrity: Azerbaijan recognizes Armenia’s territory of 29,800 square meters. km, and Armenia – Azerbaijan with an area of 86,600 sq. km. These calculations were made in Yerevan based on Soviet General Staff maps from the 1970s. The second principle is the delimitation of borders based on the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991. The third is the openness of “regional communications” based on sovereignty and equality, which can be interpreted in different ways.
The problem is that these “principles” exist exclusively in Pashinyan’s speech. In Baku they say nothing about these principles.
In Europe, Pashinyan’s “three principles” are taken seriously, as the program was discussed with the Europeans and then brought to Washington. Paris and Brussels are trying in every way to make the Azerbaijani side negotiate, and Baku simply ignores these attempts. For the past two weeks, Baku has ignored even Washington. For the West, this is a painful blow, since Paris considers the “three principles” to be its personal merit, and failure to implement the plan will be seen as a public failure of European diplomacy.
The only point on which negotiations between Baku and Yerevan are still ongoing is the exchange of territories. We are talking about old enclaves. On Friday, Pashinyan said the issue of the mutual transfer of enclaves “is being discussed.”
In particular, we are talking about the village of Tigranashen, located on the territory of Armenia, through which the strategic road to Tbilisi passes. In exchange for Tigranashen, Armenia may receive an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, Artsvashen. In 30 years, it was completely destroyed, and at best, about a hundred Azerbaijani refugees lived in it, and even the Armenian cemetery was destroyed.
The exchange does not seem equal, but Pashinyan has trapped himself with the infamous “three principles”.
Territorial integrity according to the 1991 borders and according to the area data announced by Pashinyan clearly means that an exchange of enclaves must take place. In this case, Armenia will be completely isolated and cut off from the outside world – its most important communications will be blocked by Azerbaijan.
It costs nothing for Azerbaijan to simply occupy this small territory physically, with military force. But in Baku they clearly want to see how Pashinyan will get away.
The Armenian Prime Minister must explain himself in the country and make loud statements. It can be assumed that Pashinyan, in agreement with the European structures, leads the way for early elections in Armenia. It is assumed that his party could win a landslide victory, which would allow the country’s Constitution to be changed.
The basis for such an election victory is Pashinyan’s new course of refusing cooperation with Russia and reorienting towards Europe. Ideologically, this is explained by the fact that “Russia abandoned us”, and the French, you see, will protect us.
Armenian society may vote for this, but on the condition that relations with Russia are maintained on the basis of economic preferences. Hence the reluctance to immediately withdraw from the CSTO and other post-Soviet organizations, which led to an almost cartoonish sabotage of joint events.
It is clear that Azerbaijan will not wait forever. Maybe Baku is just waiting for early elections in Armenia to deal with Pashinyan, who has more power than now. Let him win, give himself more powers, let him change the flag and coat of arms, if he will. And then from Baku they will carefully ask him again: what is happening in Zangezur? After all, this is the land where Azerbaijanis have historically lived. What do you call that lake over there – Sevan? No, now it is called Goycha, the ancient Turks have always lived on its shores. And so on down the list.
In this context, Pashinyan’s claims about the enclaves are of little interest to anyone, except perhaps the refugees. This is just a negotiation trap created by Pashinyan himself. The territorial integrity of Armenia, despite the fact that Baku still verbally recognizes it, has long ceased to be unshakable. The loss of Karabakh is actually only the first tile of the domino. But, as you know, the first is the most important.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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