A national Times/Siena poll reveals that Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Voters are more likely to see her, not Trump, as a break from the status quo.
Voters are now more likely to see Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald Trump as a representative of change and a candidate who cares about people like them, as Harris holds a slight lead nationally in the race for the White House, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
It is the first time Harris has led Trump in the Times/Siena poll since July, when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Democrats rallied around Harris as his replacement. It comes as the race enters its final month, and polls in battleground states call the election some of the closest in modern history.
Although the Times/Siena poll shows some solid leads for Trump, the results suggest that Harris is gaining ground, however slightly, on issues such as temperament, confidence and change, which can be critical in a presidential race.
The poll, conducted between September 29 and October 6 among 3,385 potential voters, revealed that Harris led Republican Trump by 49 percent to 46 percent, a slight advantage that is within the poll’s margin of error. .
Trump and Harris were even, at 47 percent each, in a Times/Siena poll in mid-September, after the two candidates faced off in their first – and probably only – presidential debate.
Since then, Harris has strengthened her support among older voters and begun to make inroads among Republicans: 9 percent said they planned to support her, up slightly from 5 percent last month. It also appears to have closed the gap on the question of change, a critical factor in an election in which voters have repeatedly told pollsters they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Trump, 78, who was not reelected in 2020, has presented himself as an agent of change, and has regularly tried to hold Harris accountable for unpopular parts of Biden’s record. But the Times/Siena poll found that voters said Harris was the candidate who represented change in this election, 46 percent to 44 percent. The result was a first for Harris; In previous Times/Siena polls, Trump has been identified as the candidate of change.
Harris, who is 59, was seen by a wide margin, 61 percent to 29 percent, as the candidate of change among nonwhite voters. Younger voters see her as the candidate of change by a wide margin: 58 percent to 34 percent.
“The age difference between the two candidates makes a big difference in terms of change,” said Darry Knox, 58, a Democrat from Memphis who said he intended to vote for Harris. «They see the world differently. “They look at the world differently, and they have different points of view on the world.”
Trump remained a strong leader, albeit by a narrow margin, which could prove crucial with a Middle East in crisis.
But Harris was, by a wide margin, considered more honest and trustworthy than Trump. And Harris, whose campaign has promoted videos and memes of her laughing, joking and dancing, was seen as the funnier of the two candidates. The poll found that 43 percent of likely voters – and 13 percent of Republicans – thought Harris was funnier.
But Trump has some clear advantages. She leads among male voters by 11 points; among that audience he beat Biden by two points in 2020. And 42 percent of respondents said Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to 22 percent who said the same about Biden’s policies.
More voters said they trusted Trump than Harris to manage what remains the biggest area of concern: the economy. (Abortion and migration were a distant second.) The country’s economic mood remains gloomy: 75 percent of respondents said the economy was in fair or poor condition, the same as last month. And nearly three-quarters of respondents said they had cut back on food purchases in the past year because of its cost.
“As a businessman, I think Trump can look at the big picture and say, ‘Oh, maybe we can do this to help people,'” said Barbara Storesina, 65, a retired school secretary in Canton, Ohio. “While the Democrats and Harris, I don’t feel like they care about the average person like me. “They don’t care if we have problems or if we need help with something.”
But even on the critical question of who voters trust to handle their most important issue, Harris has made some small gains: Trump’s lead on that question is just two points, 48 percent to 46 percent, compared to five points in September.
“I can’t trust Donald Trump,” said Rance Johnson, 54, a construction manager in Houston, who said he did not identify with a party and intended to vote for Harris. “He’s trying to get into office and I’m thinking he wants to be in office for his own benefit.”
With economic concerns prevalent, Harris was seen as more likely to “help people like you,” 48 percent to 43 percent. He had a slightly narrower lead over voters who said he would help them personally.
National polls are a good barometer of voter mood and attitude. But those numbers are not necessarily indicative of the Electoral College result, which will be determined by the most contested states, such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the polls have been very close.
In a sign of the sharp realignment of presidential battlegrounds in recent years, Times/Siena polls also show Trump holding a 13 percentage point lead in Florida, a state that was only recently considered competitive for presidential candidates. Democrats; and he leads by six percentage points in Texas, a state that Democrats have long hoped will swing their way.
Nationally, however, the race remains close and remarkably static. The percentage of voters who have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of both candidates has not changed since September. The group of undecided or persuadable has shrunk slightly to 17 percent of voters, down from 20 percent at the beginning of September. When asked which candidate they preferred, they were evenly divided. In early September, this group was leaning slightly toward Trump.
“I can’t vote for Trump,” said Elizabeth Mella, 64, a Republican from Utah, who said she was leaning toward voting for Harris. «Kamala is a decent human being, and I feel like she will work hard and, you know, I think I could be her friend. “I don’t know if I necessarily agree with all the changes you want to see.”
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