a new “national adaptation plan” to the dry regime – Libération

So here it is finally, this “Pnacc-3”! In work for almost two years, postponed numerous times by crises deemed ever more urgent at the top of the State, the third “national plan for adaptation to climate change” was ultimately unveiled, this Friday, October 25, by Michel Barnier. Accompanied by his Minister of Ecological Transition, Climate and Risk Prevention, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Prime Minister took advantage of a trip to the Rhône, a department victim of flooding last week, and a meteorological situation critical again this weekend in the South-East (the Gard, the Var and the Alpes-Maritimes are currently on alert storm rain flood), to put the spotlight on this strategic document, supposed to prepare the country for current and future effects of climate change. “There are people here and there who turn a blind eye to the vulnerability of our territories in the face of extreme and increasingly frequent phenomena, declared the head of government. We must face the truth. Adapting does not mean resigning yourself, it does not mean giving up, it means opening your eyes and together improving things.”.

This new plan, much more ambitious than the two previous ones, described as “empty shells” by adaptation experts, is made up of 51 measures. Even if Michel Barnier did not cite this figure, they were all designed based on the hypothesis of a 4°C rise in temperatures in mainland France by the end of the century compared to 1990 (today , we have already reached +1.7°C).

Mandatory “vulnerability studies” in certain sectors

Given the weakness of international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this trajectory is considered to be “optimistic” by certain scientists, like the French climatologist Christophe Cassoumember of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But it is of course on this level that “all public planning documents” will have to be based on which to think about the future.

So, what does this Pnacc-3 contain? They are very few in number, but certain measures relating to transport systems (energy, transport), the wood industry and schools have precise objectives and dates. In this way, “large transport and energy companies” will have to carry out, from 2025, a “vulnerability study” to define a “plan for adapting their operations” – as EDF or SNCF were able to begin to do. This constraint will extend the following year to all “operators of vital importance” (these public or private entities which operate essential installations in the country). Regarding the low voltage electricity network, the “the majority of structures sensitive to heat waves” will, for their part, have to be replaced by 2040. The wood processing industry will have to get into battle order to develop a “adaptation action plan” no later than 2029. And from next year, the terms of school exams (dates and locations) will be “systematically adapted during periods of extreme heat” or during peaks “orange or red heatwave”. Another provision that seems to be going in the right direction: the “Adaptation Mission”, which should also be launched in 2025, will allow communities to benefit from tailor-made assistance from expert State authorities.

“There are some good measures, which will, I hope, allow a dynamic of adaptation in several areas, reacts Adèle Tanguy, researcher specializing in adaptation policies at the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations. But what about actions for our coastlines, our mountains, our seaside resorts, our agriculture, cultural tourism, our cities and our housing? If we do not initiate systemic transformations now, we will find ourselves adapting piecemeal, and continuing to be in reaction to crises.” The executive aims to publish, by 2027, a “mapping of exposure to natural risks”. But the researcher fears that “we will stick to strengthening knowledge” and that this will replace the “operationalization” of actions. “It is important to make diagnoses and collect scientific data, comments Adèle Tanguy. However, in concrete terms, what roadmap is proposed for the coming years? This question could be asked in many areas, including that of building renovation. The Pnacc-3 plans to conduct a “study” between 2026 and 2028 for “check the relevance of the work to guarantee summer comfort”. Postponing actions for at least three years.

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“Since taking office, Agnès Pannier-Runacher has been talking to us about “popular ecology” but this plan does not prioritize precarious, isolated, elderly, marginalized people, even though they are the most vulnerable to change. climatic. This Pnacc-3 is blind to inequalities.”

— Quentin Ghesquière, campaign manager at the Oxfam France association

In fact, a large number of the plan’s proposals seem to be intentional, and impose neither timetable nor constraints. The government mentions, for example, without further details, the establishment of a “device” in order to encourage insurers to “maintain an affordable offer” et “do not neglect the areas most at risk”. And mentions the completion of yet another inventory, this time with the “health, social and medico-social establishments”. Estimated measurements “too blurry” by Quentin Ghesquière, campaign manager at the Oxfam France association. “Since taking office, Agnès Pannier-Runacher has been talking to us about “popular ecology” but this plan does not prioritize precarious, isolated, elderly, marginalized people, even though they are the most vulnerable to change. climatic, he expresses. This Pnacc-3 is blind to inequalities.”

Palpable disagreements between the Minister of Ecological Transition and Matignon

No specific financial fund will be created to implement the fifty measures of the new plan. This Friday, the head of the executive announced that the “Barnier fund” will be supplemented next year by 75 million euros to arrive at an envelope of 300 million in 2025. At the beginning of July, in a version which made the subject of back and forth between Gabriel Attal and the Minister of Ecological Transition at the time, Christophe Béchu, there was talk of topping it up to 650 million. Furthermore, the former tenant of the Roquelaure hotel had suggested setting up a budget of 150 million euros intended for “financial support for households” faced with the phenomenon of “swelling shrinkage” of clayey soils, which threatens more than eleven million houses in France. This amount simply disappeared from Pnacc-3.

“This issue of clay swelling shrinkage will be dealt with in the Green Fund, a Green Fund which will be focused as much as possible towards adaptation issues”, tries to reassure the cabinet of Agnès Pannier-Runacher. “Should I remind you that the envelope of the Green Fund goes from 2.5 billion euros to 1 billion next year? area Quentin Ghesquière of Oxfam. That the government is also asking for five billion euros in savings from communities when they are the most operational to carry out the transformations?

According to the Institute of Economics for Climatewhich in April carried out an initial quantification of the cost of adaptation by reviewing several sectors, between 1 and 2.5 billion euros should be invested each year in the field of new buildings alone, 4.4 billion for the renovation of housing, and at least 1.5 billion euros per year for that of agriculture. But the financial shortcomings of the plan are not surprising in the context “extremely urgent” budget put forward by Michel Barnier on Friday. Since the presentation of the finance bill (PLF) for 2025, examined by parliamentarians, dissensions have been palpable between the Minister of Ecological Transition and Matignon regarding the lack of resources allocated to her portfolio. “We need a budget that is up to the situation and that is not the case today”tackled Agnès Pannier Runacher a week ago on BFM. And to say in particular: “I don’t know if we have to wait for more tragedies to understand that it is an absolute necessity to invest in adaptation to climate change.” On Wednesday, the Center for Studies and Expertise on Risks (Cerema), a public establishment specializing in supporting the State in adapting to climate change, was alarmed by a drop of 4.3 million euros of its allocation in 2025.

Consultations with the general public, union and employer organizations, and insurers

And now ? Unveiled in its “Matignon compatible” version, this Pnacc-3 will now be the subject of consultations until the end of December. THE «grand public» may, by means of a “dedicated website”, give your opinion on the document (a “summary of contributions will be published”, promises the government). And “sectoral consultations” will be carried out by different ministries, which will be responsible for taking the pulse of “stakeholders from each sector” (union and employer organizations, as well as insurers, in the lead). It is difficult to know if real modifications will be made to the document. On the other hand, the Prime Minister’s office has already made it known “that no legislative developments were planned”and therefore that no measure would be submitted to a vote by Parliament. A second bad signal sent, after that of the lack of financial security.