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I don’t want to be alarmist, but there is a risk that a new Cold War – due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine– extends to Latin America and increase political divisions in the region.
There are signs that this is already happening. Russia has openly sought to expand its influence in the region in recent weeks, as tensions with United States by Ukraine. And Washington may not sit idly by.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently gave a red-carpet welcome to the presidents of Brazil and Argentina in Moscow, suggesting he will increase military aid from Russia to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
The deputy prime minister of RussiaYuri Borisov visited Venezuela on February 16 and promised to deepen bilateral ties. Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro said after meeting with the visiting official that they had made plans for “powerful military cooperation.” From Venezuela, Borisov traveled to Nicaragua and Cuba.
Also in January, the deputy foreign minister of RussiaSergei Ryabkov said he could “neither confirm nor exclude” the possibility of sending Russian troops to Venezuela and Cuba if United States The US and Europe were not reducing what he described as their growing military activities in Eastern Europe.
In the past, Russia sent fighter jets and military ships to Venezuela on at least three occasions for short-term missions. Venezuela also bought at least 24 Sukhoi fighter planes and 50 helicopters and tanks from Russia during the regime of the late Hugo Chavez, causing anxiety in neighboring Colombia.
In Washington, US officials are taking note of the offensive by Russia in the region. Although White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last month that the Russian deputy foreign minister’s veiled threats to send troops to Venezuela and Cuba were “bravado,” White House officials are taking more seriously. Russia’s latest steps in the region seriously.
While Washington should not fall asleep while Russia expands its military presence in the region, an escalation of tensions between the superpowers in Latin America It would be bad news for the region. It would increase political divisions and further hinder growth economic integration.
Furthermore, an escalation of the East-West confrontation over Ukraine could lead to a world recession that would harm the exports of Latin America. Although Latin American countries would benefit from a temporary increase in the world prices of oil, metals and grains, these gains would be offset by a decrease in imports of United StatesEurope and China by a global recession.
US President Joe Biden will have a great opportunity to improve ties with Latin America –and regain lost ground against Russia and China during the years of former president Donald Trump – when the Summit of the Americas takes place in June.
But if there is a full-scale war in Ukrainethere is a great possibility that Russia continue to increase its military presence in Latin America as a way of saying to Washington: “If you come into my neighborhood, I come into yours.”
–Glossed and edited–
© The New Herald. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC
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