In the military field, relatively little has changed in recent days, says Zandee. The Russian appeal to Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their weapons in Mariupol has been rejected by the Ukrainian government. “There will be no capitulation, weapons will not be laid down,” the Ukrainian government said. That message had already been passed on to the Russians before.
Stinger missiles
There is some movement around Slovakia, says Zandee. “Ukraine has asked for anti-aircraft defenses, in order to be able to harass the air force of the Russians flying at high altitudes more. There are many reports about the donation of Stingers, also from the Netherlands. But these portable anti-aircraft missiles do not reach higher than 5 kilometers. If you want to hit the air force of the Russians, who drop the precision bombs, you need bigger installations, like the S300, a Russian system.”
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The fighting power of the Russian army seems to be dwindling. The great weakness of the Russians is mainly visible on the ground, says Zandee. “And that situation has only gotten worse in recent days. All kinds of own reservists and Syrians, Chechens and mercenaries are coming to support the Russians. The fact that the Russians deploy these people in Ukraine also says something about their own troop stock.”
precisionbommen
The only thing where the Russians still mean something is in the field of the air force. “But then they must have enough precision bombs and not just free fall bombs. For the latter you have to fly lower and then you are also more vulnerable. The Russians therefore mainly use those bombs where they have more control over the land, and that is the south. The situation is very different in the capital Kiev. I suppose that Ukraine has still set up a number of anti-aircraft defenses around the capital. You can therefore see there that no Russian planes are bombing.”
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The goal for Putin remains capital Kiev, says Zandee. “I expect that the Russians will make another attempt. That they will regroup and then try to conquer the city again.”
River crossing
One option for the Russians is to enter the city from the northeast. “Then you can take the east side of Kiev, but the heart of Kiev is still on the other side of the river Dnieper, that is on the west side. So you will first have to cross the river. Perhaps the Ukrainians will build the bridges then blow up. The resistance will be fierce.” From the southeast side there is still little to see of the Russians.
Meanwhile, humanitarian misery continues to be great. Zandee finds it difficult to predict how this war will continue. “There are people who say: Putin will start negotiations now that so little progress is being made. But for Putin, there are still far from reaching enough goals to really start negotiating. In his view, his negotiating position is not good enough.”
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The chance that Putin will use chemical weapons is quite unlikely, according to Zandee. Russia is part of the Chemical Weapons Treaty, which entails a worldwide ban on the use and stockpiling of chemical weapons. “So the Russians will not have a lot of stock. Of course this happened in Syria at the time, but I do not expect this in this war, also because it makes the deployment of your ground troops more difficult. Soldiers then have to go to work with all kinds of masks while they are already poorly supplied.”
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Four battlefields
1. Around the capital Kiev
Around Kiev, the situation is basically unchanged since the start of that large column arrived. Heavy fighting continues in Irpin, a suburb of Kiev.
2. The Northeast
In the northeast, from Belarus, the Russians made some progress towards Kiev. Last week, images showed that such a reconnaissance unit was shot away by Ukraine. Then the Russians didn’t come back.
3. Battle around the cities of Sumy and Kharkov
Then there is the battle over the cities of Sumy and Kharkov. Almost nothing happens there. Kharkov is defended by the Ukrainian army and the Russians cannot get through.
4. The South
The most progress has been made for the Russians in the south. Kherson has been taken, as has the nuclear power plant in the south. Now there is the battle for Mikolayiiv and Mariupol . Mariupol has been bombed and surrounded, but there too it has been quiet for a while in terms of progression. Odessa, in the south of the country, is not yet in the hands of the Russians. The beach at Odessa is full of mines. So the Russians can’t land there. From the country, the Russians still have a long way to go to Odessa.
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