/ world today news/ Although there is still a year and a half until the presidential elections in the USA, the main composition of the participants has finally been determined – they will be only four. Two contenders will try to intervene in the rematch between Biden and Trump: Robert Kennedy Jr. of the Democrats and Ron DeSantis of the Republicans. The latter announced his nomination on Wednesday. Could DeSantis become President of the United States?
Maybe, but not this time. He’ll be just 46 in November 2024 — and a loss to the 77-year-old Trump (if DeSantis doesn’t make it through the primaries) or the 81-year-old Biden (if DeSantis does win the Republican nomination) won’t be the end of his political career for him. The main question is another: why did DeSantis decide to run? Why should he, until recently a loyal Trumpist – both in the House of Representatives and in 2018, elected governor of Florida – enter the battle between the two old heavyweights? To stop Trump?
Although Trump mocks his opponent in every way – he recently coined the nickname “DeSanctimonius” (in English – “Defiled”) – he is, of course, extremely irritated by his nomination. Because it distracts him from the main thing – the fight against Biden. And this despite the fact that Trump and DeSantis have practically nothing to argue about – ideologically their positions are very close. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. criticized Biden on domestic policy issues from more leftist positions and on foreign policy from isolationist positions (including speaking out against unending support for Ukraine), then DeSantis has nothing to criticize Trump for. Besides moving to personal attacks that Trump is eccentric, he doesn’t know how to put together a team, that age is taking its toll.
Initially, the idea of nominating DeSantis suited most of the “Washington Swamp,” the bipartisan elite, because the plan was that he would be able to wrest the Republican Party from Trump’s hands. And then either lose to Biden in the election, or in the last resort become president, but not a non-systemic rebel like Trump, but a more or less controlled occupant of the White House. In order to remove Trump, the “deep state” was even ready to turn a blind eye to the fact that Desantis’s views on many issues (for example, abortion) are even more radical than those of the former president – yes, he is more conservative, but he will be under control.
That plan seemed entirely feasible to many last year when, after another wave of Trump discrediting and DeSantis publicity, polls unexpectedly began to show a narrowing gap between them: the governor was catching up with the former president. Moreover, the same polls show that if DeSantis is nominated, he will confidently beat Biden, but Trump will not be able to do that. The governor turned out to be the Republicans’ only hope for victory, and it was presented that way. Trump must give way to the young, including in the name of the victory of Trumpism.
But the rise in his ratings was a temporary phenomenon – Trump regained ground (especially after he was indicted and appeared in court), and now his lead over DeSantis has almost doubled. And even worse, Trump now confidently outperforms Biden as well. So all the seemingly reasonable arguments in favor of DeSantis’ nomination are gone – but he’s still running. Why?
Because, alas, he does not understand that he is becoming a mere puppet in the hands of the “Washington Swamp”, which must at all costs weaken Trump, and since there is no other Republican with a decent rating besides DeSantis, he will be promised a bright future and convince him of the possibility of winning first in the primary elections, and then in the presidential elections. As a result, he won’t be able to wrest the party from Trump’s hands, but it will shake his nerves and his ratings.
What does this bode for Russia? During the campaign, both Trump and DeSantis would criticize Biden for excessive support for Ukraine and the risk of nuclear war with Russia (DeSantis generally referred to the conflict as a “territorial dispute”, although he was later forced to correct his words). That is, the claims to the authorities on the Ukrainian issue will be the number one topic in the foreign policy part of the pre-election agenda (although it will be inferior in importance to the internal political one, this time it will play a significant role) – especially since Biden’s position on Ukraine will also be criticized by Kennedy Jr. This, of course, will not lead to a change in the US position – Washington will not abandon its pledge to keep Ukraine in the hands of the West, but it will affect the attitude of the Americans to the endless support of Kiev. Roughly speaking, the number of Biden’s supporters on this issue will decrease and force him to somehow react, to take some action to demonstrate his “peacefulness”. And this, in turn, will unnerve not only Kiev, but also the Europeans – who, the closer November 2024 gets, the more nervous they will be about the possibility of Trump getting revenge.
It is impossible to predict the outcome of the election now, but it is possible to confidently predict that Biden will receive the Democratic nomination and Trump will be nominated for the Republican presidential nomination. DeSantis won’t be done with his career — and if he doesn’t screw up, he could be president of the United States in four years or the next decade. Under one basic condition – until then, the States themselves remain as a truly unified state, and not enter into the process of distinguishing blue and red states.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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