For the first time since the start of the conflict, Ukrainian drones attempted to attack Russian ships in the Caspian Sea. Although the targets were not hit, the operation marks a strategic expansion by Ukraine into areas once considered secure for Russia.
A daring attack in the Caspian Sea
As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies on land, kyiv is trying to put pressure on Russia by increasing naval offensives. Since the spectacular attack on the cruiser Moskva in 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has suffered numerous losses, forcing the Russian Navy to redeploy several of its ships to more secure areas. This time, it’s in the Caspian Sea, explains Le Figaroat a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian borders, which Ukraine attempted to strike, targeting Russian military ships stationed in Kaspiysk, a strategic port in Dagestan.
The ships targeted by the attack are the Tatarstan and the Dagestan, two medium-sized missile ships with high strike capacity. Equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, these ships have the capacity to hit very distant targets, including on Ukrainian soil. This offensive on Russian soil therefore aims to remind Moscow that its fleet, even in regions far from the main battlefield, is not invulnerable.
A military failure but a strategic signal
Despite the ambition of the attack, tangible results remain uncertain. Videos circulating online show Ukrainian drones flying over the port of Kaspiysk, but there is no concrete evidence of damage to Russian ships. In several videos, we even see a drone shot down before reaching its target, while another device explodes near a ship without damaging it. Open source analysis (OSINT) confirms that several ships in the Caspian Fleet have left their docks to reduce their vulnerability.
Satellite images, released after the attack, reveal no trace of damaged or destroyed ships, and show that the ships remained operational. These elements therefore suggest that the offensive, although symbolically strong, did not inflict any real loss on the Russian Caspian fleet. However, it constitutes a clear warning and proof of Ukraine’s strategic reach, now capable of threatening targets located well beyond its borders.
Increased vulnerability for Russia
For Russia, this unprecedented assault in the Caspian Sea highlights a new challenge. Until now, the Caspian fleet, historically less exposed than that of the Black Sea, had rarely been targeted. This warning shot pushes Moscow to strengthen its defense measures in an area that it previously considered out of reach of Ukrainian forces. The Caspian Sea flotilla, which is an integral part of Russian maritime strategy due to its long-range missile capabilities, must now be protected from potential threats.
