/ world today news/ A hotbed of diplomatic tension is brewing in South America, which could quickly escalate into an open war. The historic territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana (formerly British Guiana) is heating up as Caracas intends to “restore justice” and bring much of Guyana’s territory back under its control.
The determined Maduro
The Venezuelan government has stunned the international community, but especially neighboring Guyana, by renewing its claim to 160,000 square kilometers of the western part of neighboring Guyana. It is known as the Essequibo Zone, named after the full-water river that flows here.
The territory along the Essequibo River is the subject of a 200-year-old dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The river bisects present-day Guyana, flowing from south to north before emptying into the Atlantic Ocean. Venezuela considers the Essequibo River a natural border between the two countries. The authorities of Guyana – formerly British Guiana – naturally reject this.
The current escalation of the conflict is reflected in the fact that official Caracas announced a nationwide “consultative” referendum on the fate of the disputed territory on December 3. At the same time, the left bank of Essequibo, which Venezuela claims, is most of today’s Guyana – six of its ten administrative regions.
A bit of history
And so, the 200-year-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has never subsided. It smouldered, flaring up intermittently during these two centuries. In 1819, the Spanish colonies in South America achieved independence from Madrid, uniting in the new country of Colombia (historians tentatively call it Great /Greater/ Colombia, so as not to be confused with modern Colombia).
In 1831, Greater Colombia split into several countries, which are now known as Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. The emergence of a territorial dispute between Venezuela and neighboring British Guiana, a country now known as Guyana, dates back to this same period. Guiana itself became British in 1814: Britain acquired this territory, about 51,700 square kilometers, from the Netherlands.
It is important to note that the contract of sale between London and Amsterdam does not define the western boundary of the subject of the auction – Guyana. Venezuelans believe that the weak young country of Venezuela in the 1830s allowed the British, who at the time owned Guiana, to gain power over the Essequibo zone, which actually belonged to Venezuela.
Covering a larger area than countries such as the United Kingdom or Greece, this disputed territory in Western Guyana is a land rich in minerals and other natural resources of astonishing diversity. The main wealth of this region is the huge oil field discovered there in 2015.
Arbitration Disputes
Venezuela formally laid claim to the Essequibo region in 1841, but the dispute remained frozen. In 1895, the United States intervened in this dispute under its Monroe Doctrine. The US condemned the expansion of the border with Guyana in a “mysterious manner” and recommended that the dispute be resolved through international arbitration. In 1899, an arbitration court in Paris ruled in favor of Great Britain, according to which the territory “officially” passed under British rule.
Half a century later, in 1949, a memorandum of the American lawyer Severo Male-Prévot, a participant in the defense of Venezuela at the Paris Arbitration Court, was made public. In his memorandum, Malet-Prevost condemned the fact that the decision was “political” and that “the judges were not impartial”. The revelations of Severo Male-Prévo and a number of other documents still serve as a basis for Venezuela to consider the arbitration award “invalid”.
In 1966, three months before Guyana (now renamed Guyana) gained independence, Britain signed the Geneva Agreement with Venezuela, which recognized Venezuela’s grievances and expressed a desire to find satisfactory solutions to the dispute. But let’s note that the desire to find a solution to the conflict was signed by the United Kingdom, not by the future independent state of Guyana. There is legal casuistry. Who should Caracas ask now? He believes that Guyana should be the defendant.
What is the referendum about?
Although Venezuela’s claims have continued throughout this time, the government of President Nicolás Maduro has gradually raised the tone of its voice, and thus the degree of confrontation with Guyana, precisely since 2015, after the discovery of oil fields in Essequibo. And now Venezuela seems determined to disrupt the status quo by calling a national referendum on the disputed region on December 3.
In the view of the Government of Guyana, the referendum poses a real threat to the territorial integrity of Guyana. She appealed to the International Court of Justice in The Hague to stop it. Venezuela rejected Guyana’s move on the grounds that it was interference in its internal affairs.
After his visit to the region at the end of October, the President of Guyana, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, promised that his country “won’t give up an inch” territory. For his part, Venezuelan President Maduro said the other day that a referendum on the fate of the Essequibo region would be held “even in rain, even in thunder and lightning.” Maduro predicts massive participation of Venezuelans in this expression of the popular will.
The referendum will ask Venezuelans, among other things, whether they support the creation of the state of Guyana-Essequibo, whose 125,000 residents will be given Venezuelan citizenship. In addition, the ballots will ask, in particular, whether:
– Venezuelans agree with the 1899 decision of the Paris Court of Arbitration;
– Do citizens agree that the Geneva Agreement of 1966 is the only legal instrument capable of achieving a practical and effective solution to the territorial conflict between Venezuela and Guyana;
– Do Venezuelans agree with the historical position of Venezuela not to recognize the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in the resolution of the territorial conflict for Guyana-Essequibo?
The results of the referendum will not be binding under international law. But critics of the Venezuelan leader say the referendum has “nationalist connotations” and is directly linked to presidential elections scheduled for 2024, in which current President Nicolás Maduro will once again try to remain at the helm of the country.
Analysts expect massive support for the Venezuelan government’s proposals, which “will mobilize his electorate, as no issue unites both government supporters and members of the opposition like the demand to return the Essequibo region under Venezuelan sovereignty”.
Is there a great danger of war?
Given that what is at stake is the countryside, in the depths of which lies a giant oil lake and almost the entire periodic table of chemical elements, the possibility of an armed conflict between the two sides cannot be ruled out.
In addition, we must understand that the Venezuelan authorities once again have the opportunity to unite the entire nation under the patriotic slogan of returning the eastern Venezuelan lands that were once appropriated by Great Britain. Here again, the question of patriotism (or nationalism – as you like) is closely intertwined with colossal economic benefits for both Venezuela and Guyana. And neither side has any intention of backing down. At least that’s how it seems now.
For Venezuela, this bundle of interests is also intertwined with the issue of fighting neo-colonialism, epitomized by the transnational oil company ExxonMobil operating in Guyana. This company, according to President Maduro, “controls the Government of Guyana”, which in turn “attempts to tarnish the referendum in Venezuela and prevent it from taking place.”
So the situation is more than tense and borders on the danger of armed conflict. At the very least, Brazil, which borders both Venezuela and Guyana to the north, has increased its combat presence on its northern border. In a statement, Brazil’s defense ministry said it was monitoring the situation between the neighboring countries and had decided to “strengthen border security”.
In the region of the northern border of the country, defensive actions have been intensified, which contributes to an increase in the military presence,
– stated in a statement from the Brazilian Ministry of Defense.
Will the US intervene?
The question remains: Will the United States intervene in a potential conflict between Venezuela and Guyana?
First, it must be emphasized that President Maduro does not need a major war on the eastern border. This will only weaken his position at a time when the country is already experiencing a severe economic crisis provoked by US sanctions.
Moreover, it will give Washington a reason to attack Caracas with even greater criticism and under the guise of “defense of territorial integrity” of Guyana to consider invading Venezuela to topple the Maduro government.
Now, the likelihood of US military intervention varies, so to speak, in the hypothetical zone, as the Americans have a history of conflict in Ukraine, war in Israel and the looming military issue over Taiwan. Therefore, now Washington will simply monitor the situation carefully and make decisions depending on its development.
It seems that the Venezuelan authorities at this stage will limit themselves to harsh patriotic and military rhetoric in order to push for a diplomatic solution to the problem, the solution of which may be to allow Venezuela to participate in the production of oil, etc. minerals in the Essequibo region.
Translation: ES
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