According to data from Indec During the first half of 2023, poverty rose to 40.1% and, within it, the indigence rate also increased, affecting 9.3% of the population. But although these data are not surprising given the inflationary regime that degrades household income, in the context of the crisis we are going through, they are data that are becoming old. During the last few months, the situation has worsened even more, and this continues to happen despite the barrage of social relief measures given by the ruling party. Now, the problems we face are much more complex.
If we unravel the official data, the world of poverty is made up, on the one hand, of a 25%-30% of chronic poor (between two and three generations), among whom the risk of extreme poverty has doubled in the last 10 years; and, on the other hand, at least 15% of new poor ex-middle class (6 million people). Far from any paradox, 48% of the population lives in a home that receives public assistance and we only have 6.2% open unemployment. Without a doubt, the situation would be much worse if there were not, behind inflationary consumption – largely generated by social spending – an increase in the aggregate demand for informal self-employment of very low quality, from which poor families They fight for their survival.
That is to say, a stagflationary economic regime that inhibits investments, blocks the creation of good jobs, extends informality and, as a consequence, generates more poor people and fewer middle classes every day, is what makes it possible for those at the bottom to survive in the marginality, and that the system moves through relative social peace. However, this is not the case of the popular and middle sectors, of an aspirational nature, for whom the fall – both relative and absolute – does not seem to have a floor, and, worse still, has no way out.
For this reason, poverty is just the manifestation of much more crucial problems, both economic and political. Behind the poverty data is the persistent economic failure of an Argentina that only offers opportunities for progress to the upper third of the social pyramid, while marginality is perpetuated in the lower third, and is pushed down to the middle third, defenseless and vulnerable. In this framework, expressions of rejection of politics in electoral behavior should not be surprising. Perhaps what should be surprising is that the reaction has not been and is not even greater.
Argentine society accumulates several decades of malpractice in terms of growth, social progress and income distribution. The situation is fundamentally explained by the little or no will of the political elites to assume the task of collaboratively assembling agreements that will allow us to both get out of the crisis and guarantee sustained development with social inclusion. An enormous political vacuum that continues to deepen in the midst of the current crisis. Although tense speeches, feverish promises or electoral measures for social relief try to distract fatigue for a moment, annoyance and citizen anomie dominate. Neither liberals, nor republicans nor populists can escape the responsibility of having reached this state of affairs.
In this framework, not only poverty, marginality and inequality are perpetuated as a result of a lack of economic policy, but distrust in the leaders, the parties, and the powers of the Republic also deepens. The loss of social legitimacy extends to the media, private companies, unions, social movements and even churches. Anti-system feelings are growing, making possible the emergence of authoritarian and irrational discourses. The situation is frankly critical, but not only in terms of maintaining social peace, but also the legitimacy of democracy and its institutions.
We are transiting a fractal crisis, an end of the cycle, the end of a failed economic and political regime. But not to be confused, the problem is not democratic institutions, since they constitute only a valuable toolbox that requires skillful goldsmiths; far from it a people who struggle patiently and decently every day to survive in peace, but who demand solutions that political action does not guarantee.
And central commitment of democracies Mature actions have been, within a framework of political freedoms, to create conditions for growth, progress and social mobility, raising the floor of well-being opportunities and reducing social injustices. In our young democracy, this commitment has not yet been established, either as a political practice or as a moral mandate among the leadership. The struggle for power in itself -immediate particular interest-, and not for itself -collective strategic interest-, has dominated the political scene.
It is the leaderships of all kinds that must reconvert and urgently face an “agreement” on economic, political and social reforms that will get us out of the crisis. The good news is that more out of fear than love, the incentives and material conditions are given for this to happen. The bad news is that the signals in the direction of this objective within the political class are still insufficient. Until this happens, poverty, inequality and social unrest will continue to grow, and democracy will weaken, even in its ability to find ways of self-preservation.
The chief author of the Argentine Social Debt Observatory/UCA – UBA/CONICET
