On Saturday, October 19, a “day of silence” was announced in Moldova: before the presidential election, any pre-election campaign is prohibited. In addition, they decided to combine the elections of the head of state with a constitutional referendum. On October 20, the country’s citizens must decide whether they agree with Moldova joining the European Union. We looked at which one of the 11 candidates running was preferred by voters, according to preliminary social studies, and what the results of the referendum are they predicting.
Who is running for the post of President of Moldova?
There are 11 names on the list of candidates for the presidency of Moldova. Here are representatives of the political opposition Renato Usatii, Ion Chicu, Irina Vlah, Natalia Morari, and a representative of the bloc coalition Octavian Ticu, and Vasily Tarlev and Alexander Stoianoglo, characterized by their obvious views that are outside of Russia, career diplomat Tudor Ulyanovsky and career prosecutor Victoria Fortune, and former friend of the current president Andrei Nastase, who became her strong critic, and the head of state herself, Maia Sandu, decided to run for a second term.
However, the front-runners in the presidential race in Moldova itself are considered to be two candidates with diametrically opposed views – the current President Maia Sandu, who is advocating closer integration with the EU, and the former Prosecutor General of Moldova Alexander Stoianoglo, who was supported by ex- President Igor Dodon is with the opposition Party that is outside of Russia leading socialists.
In order for the Central Electoral Commission to recognize the presidential election as valid, the turnout must be higher than 33%. In this case, the winner is the candidate who receives an absolute majority of votes. If a candidate does not manage to win a majority of votes (and this is the scenario that political observers consider most likely), Moldova will have to hold a second round of presidential elections in another two weeks.
Although Moldova has had one of the highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates in Europe in recent years, it is still one of the poorest countries in the region. Currently, the country’s authorities have to deal with high inflation, constantly rising energy prices and low incomes of citizens (the minimum wage for 2024 is 5,000 lei, which is equivalent to about 930 rubles Belarus).
Who is expected to win in the polls?
Since the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the leaders of this Soviet republic have repeatedly changed their political course – from strictly pro-European to pro-Russian and back again. Under Maia Sandu, the country accelerated its move towards the European Union, and the active phase of the war in neighboring Ukraine only strengthened the current leadership in the path to she chose. The current president is determined to achieve Moldova’s accession to the EU and has even set a target year for accession – 2030.
As The Guardian said, preliminary opinion polls indicate that Sandu will win the elections, and in the first round. The same polls show 65% of voters support joining the EU.
However, some political observers are convinced that a new head of state will not be confirmed without a second round of voting. Supporters of this position note that dissatisfaction with the current government is growing in the country as a result of growing economic pressure on the country. The fact is that the war between Moscow and Kiev directly affected ordinary Moldovans: the country now has to buy natural gas in the West, and not in Russia, and this costs much more.
Moldova’s financial problems have fueled opponents of European integration, who are using the current crisis as an opportunity to plead for renewed ties with the Kremlin, portraying Moldova’s problems as as a result of her pro-Western policies. This is exactly the position taken by the pro-Russian candidate Alexander Stoianoglo. According to the results of the polls announced by The Guardian, at least 10% of the voters are ready to vote for him today, based on which political observers have decided that the person -this particular politics is the most likely candidate to bring Sandu to the second. round In an interview with The Guardian, Stoianoglo called on people to boycott the referendum or vote “no” on European integration.
- Maia Sandu – 45.86% – 4561 votes,
- Alexander Stoianoglo – 25.49% – 2535 votes,
- Renato Usatii – 8.95% – 890 votes,
- Irina Vlah – 7.99% – 795 votes,
- Ion Chicu – 3.38% – 336 votes,
- Natalia Morar – 2.38% – 237 votes,
- Vasily Tarlev – 1.78% – 177 votes,
- Octavian Tsycu – 1.65% – 164 votes,
- Victoria Fortune – 1.14% – 113 votes,
- Tudor Ulyanovsky – 0.73% – 73 votes,
- Andrei Nastase – 0.64% – 64 votes.
In addition, the course of the presidential campaign, according to Sandu’s supporters, could not help but be influenced by the pro-Russian campaign launched by some opposition forces. Therefore, Sandu’s foreign policy adviser, Olga Rosca, accused Russia of “injecting millions of dirty money,” bribing voters and “full-scale intervention aimed at the the future of its instability” Moldova. Official Moscow, however, definitely denies any accusations of interference in the elections in Moldova.
Earlier, Telegraf.news reported that the European Commission announced that it had approved a “Growth Plan” for Moldova, which provides for the allocation of 1.8 billion euros, as well as measures to accelerate the country’s – into the European Union.
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