A couple of days earlier than the elections, BSP is 2% forward of GERB. Watch out to not lose them within the final week!? – 2024-07-10 18:39:19

/ world at the moment information/ In response to the most recent sociological survey by the “Mediana” company, BSP leads GERB by 2%.

Primary extracts

• The space between the 2 principal competing events – GERB and BSP – has elevated by 1.5% in comparison with the month of April and is at the moment (Could 8, 2019) 2% in favor of BSP. There isn’t any vital enhance within the electoral weight of the BSP (influx of latest voters), however an outflow of voters from GERB (the so-called “mushy periphery” is disappearing).

• On the identical time, the core of GERB-voters is very motivated to defend their get together and take part within the elections. A month in the past, they have been considerably extra hesitant than BSP sympathizers. Now the mobilization in each teams is virtually the identical. This most likely marks the top of the erosion of confidence in GERB (in fact, within the absence of scandals, “gates” and different extraordinary occasions). GERB has partially restored the boldness (or persistence) in itself that was hit laborious by Residence-gate.

• Two weeks earlier than the European elections, the 2 events face one another with virtually equal positions and extremely motivated voters. The dominance of 1 or the opposite within the elections might be determined by “trifles”, together with the buildup of holidays on election day.

• The third get together that may make certain that it is going to be in a position to move the electoral barrier (5.89%) is DPS. The affect of DOST has been visibly overcome. To the extent that there’s rigidity, it’s within the association of individuals on the get together record and a excessive chance of utilizing preferences (with the intention to rearrange or categorical disagreement).

• Two events are near the electoral barrier for European elections – VMRO (4.7%) and “Volya” (4.9%). They’re adopted by NFSB (3.9%); “Coalition for Bulgaria (3.8%); Democratic Bulgaria (3.4%) and Ataka (2.6%). Normally, none of those events might be excluded from the possibilities of crossing the barrier. The explanation for that is that as of now (Could 8, 2019), practically a million voters say they may vote, however are nonetheless undecided for whom (and possibly undecided whether or not to vote in any respect). “Swinging” this enormous mass of voters in a single course or one other can launch virtually any get together over the electoral barrier.

• Because the marketing campaign progresses (and the property scandals surrounding the federal government subside), the need to vote additionally appears to lower. In only one month, the variety of individuals defining these elections as vital for Bulgaria has decreased by 13% (from 51% to 38%). There appears to be fatigue (and disgust) with scandals and political propaganda mixed with a scarcity of a transparent imaginative and prescient for change.

• The declared electoral turnout continues to be excessive (about 70%), however the aforementioned raises doubts as as to whether it is going to be realized. In all probability about 2.5 million voters will go to the polls (After all, within the absence of scandals, “gates” and different extraordinary occasions. Nevertheless, any such occasion can blow up this relative calm).

• The info present a weak want to make use of the voting preferences (8.5% say they may use them). There’s prone to be no reordering of the lists on account of preferential voting.

Belief in authorities

„THE MANAGEMENT OF THE THIRD GOVERNMENT OF BOYKO BORISOV DOES IT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE OR DISAPPOINT YOU?”

% from everybody

GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT OF THE SIX-TABLE SYSTEM

„WHAT IS YOUR SCORE ON THE SIX POINT SYSTEM FOR THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT?”

from everybody

European elections

Requested electoral exercise for the European elections

„ARE YOU MORE LIKELY TO GO TO VOTE IN THE UPCOMING EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OR MORE LIKELY NOT TO VOTE THEM?”