The Ministry of Climate and Environment (MKiŚ) presented an assessment of the effects of the Energy Voucher Act. It follows that in the second half of this year, electricity prices will increase by nearly 30% compared to the first half.
Meanwhile, just a month ago, the Minister of Climate assured that “there will be no increase in energy prices of 50 percent or even 40 percent” and the increases will reach a maximum of PLN 30.
– Let’s not scare people. Changes to bills will be in the order of PLN 30 – she argued.
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The scale of increases from July will also be higher than experts estimated.
The analysis of the BNP Paribas bank, presented in March this year, showed that in the second half of 2024, electricity bills will increase by approximately 15-25%.
“In turn, full price liberalization from July to the level consistent with the tariff approved by the Energy Regulatory Office in December last year (PLN 739) would mean an increase in bills by approximately 65% (including distribution costs and taxes),” the economists pointed out in the analysis.
So where does such a large discrepancy in the scale of the energy price increase come from?
An increase of PLN 30. What did the minister mean?
– When the head of the Ministry of Culture and Environment gave the value of PLN 30 for the first time, she did not put it in context. Therefore, it was not known whether it was an increase of PLN 30 per megawatt hour, or PLN 30 on the household bill (if so, which one and in what settlement period) or PLN 30 per person – says Jakub Wiech, editor-in-chief of the Energetyka 24 website.
Only later the minister admitted that she wanted to ensure that “after July 1, the monthly electricity bill for a household would not increase by more than PLN 30.”
But according to Wiech, this can also be misleading and imprecise. – Different households have different disposable income, energy budget and needs in this area. Therefore, it is much better to provide the expected scale of energy price increases in relation to the price per gross kilowatt hour. This way, everyone can estimate what increases to expect and then deduct from them, for example, the value of an energy voucher – he points out.
Our other interlocutors, in turn, point out that the first information provided by the government in April about the energy voucher act indicated many unknowns.
– It was not known whether the distribution tariffs added to the bill would be calculated according to the tariffs approved for 2024 or according to frozen rates, and if so, according to what limits – says Łukasz Czekała, president of Optimal Energy, an energy price comparison website.
According to him, theoretically – assuming that distribution fees do not increase – it could be assumed that the declaration of the Minister of Climate can be fulfilled.
However, it is worth remembering that the price of electricity is only one of the components of the bill, excluding distribution costs. I don’t want to play fortune teller, but I suspect that the minister’s declaration did not include these elements of the bill – reserves our interlocutor.
Łukasz Czekała reminds that There are eight different distribution fees on our account and these will increase: network fee, transition fee rate, subscription fee, variable component of the network rate, quality rate, renewable energy rate, cogeneration rate, capacity rate.
Derski: we have been living in the “matrix” in recent years
Bartłomiej Derski from WysokieNapiecie.pl predicts that The main reason for the increase in bills will be the unfreezing of energy distribution prices.
This will bring an increase of approximately 17 cents. The energy prices themselves are still partially frozen, so the increase will be approximately 10 cents. The rest is due to higher VAT – he explains.
Why are electricity bills going up again? – Over the last few years, we have been living in a kind of “matrix”, thinking that energy prices are not rising. Meanwhile, they were growing, but we didn’t feel it, because the state introduced a subsidy mechanism and compensated energy producers for higher prices. However, this was mainly done through taxation of renewable energy producers – solar and wind farms – he points out.
Further price freezing contrary to EU law?
The higher scale of increases than indicated in previous announcements is not the only problem we will have to face in Poland. The extension of maximum electricity prices from mid-July 2024 for households and micro-enterprises may be inconsistent with EU law.
Paulina Grądzik, an expert at Lewiatan, points out that energy sales contracts concluded by consumers in Poland ceased to be valid at the end of last year at the latest. Then the EU emergency intervention regulation to deal with high energy prices expired.
In her opinion, there are therefore no grounds for further legal interference by the state in energy prices.
Such actions may therefore result in financial penalties imposed on Poland by the European Court of Justice. Another issue may be the order to pay compensation for damage suffered by energy sellers, the expert points out.
Energy increases only postponed
Wojciech Graczyk, president of the Association of Private Energy Employers, believes that further extension of the system freezing prices will have a negative impact on the state’s debt and the condition of energy companies.
Let us remind you: the costs related to freezing energy prices over the last two years amounted to PLN 200 billion. The bill on the energy voucher increases this debt by over PLN 8 billion.
Meanwhile, subsidizing energy prices does not solve the problem of rising prices, the increase in bills is only postponed. The government’s latest announcements indicate that shields and covers will cease to apply from mid-2025. The current reductions will therefore be covered by compensation and higher electricity prices in 2025.
– There is no doubt that this debt will be repaid from taxes paid by consumers and entrepreneurs in the coming years – comments Wojciech Graczyk.
Agnieszka Zielińska, journalist at money.pl
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