The cold shower of the Trump cyclone has frozen some initial euphoria and today the ghost of yet another flop is the nightmare of the 50 thousand delegates from 198 countries. Five more days, and on Friday we will know if Baku will end up, as it seems, in the classic hole in the water, with the Conference of the Parties on climate archived as the twenty-ninth stage of the opportunities missed from the start.
If on the eve of the world there was a little hope, this was brutally overwhelmed and buried by the election of the denialist tycoon, and the most obvious signs of disengagement are also in the package of the major international leaders – United States, China, India, Brazil, half of Europe… – stayed at home for various reasons, and even the speeches of those who arrived were so far devoid of concrete commitments despite a Cop29 agenda full of commitments for emission reductions, adaptation, climate finance with aid to developing countries development, the fight against the impacts of the climate on land. But this UN conference just doesn’t take off, and in the stadium transformed by the restyling too many chairs remained empty. And the climate is quite «fossil fuel friendly».
The delegations have not yet absorbed the blow dealt by the election of the 47th President of the United States and by Donald Trump‘s announcement of the executive order for the second sensational exit from the Paris Agreement after his departure in his first term. Followed closely by the surprise exit of Argentina’s Javier Gerardo Milei, another proud denialist of the first hour who gave no explanations, and by the shock interventions of the representatives of the crude oil producing countries, starting from the host Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, who do not even remotely think about reducing Oil & Gas withdrawals and exports, convinced that they are a “gift from God” and are blocking any attempt at an agreement for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The UN Secretary General’s appeals to act in the face of the terrifying increase in “climate destruction” and not to reduce the ambitions of the global and local energy transition also go in vain. Unless there are improbable photo-finsh surprises, self-defeating choices will win.
However, Baku still had some surprises in store. Darren Woods has arrived, CEO of ExxonMobil which has accumulated dozens of lawsuits throughout the USA which hold it responsible for the acceleration of climate change, and in a sensational interview with the Wall Street Journal he distanced himself from Trump by explaining why he must not withdraw the United States since the Paris Agreement. The US oil giant on a collision course with the new President? We will see, but in the meantime it remains on record that Woods considers the second exit from the agreements not only as the opening of Pandora’s box of uncertainty and chaos in global efforts to stop the worst climate effects, but as disastrous for the business of companies «having the pendulum swinging back and forth as administrations change, I don’t think stops and starts are the right thing for businesses…They are extremely inefficient. They create a lot of uncertainty.”
But the United States’ retreat is now inevitable and it is enough to scroll down the list of Trump loyalists in the new government team who will control key roles. In the new administration there will be the New York deputy and proud denier Lee Zeldin placed at the helm of the legendary American environmental agency, the Environmental Protection Agency committed to the most rigorous controls and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and already promises environmental deregulation and downsizing of the powers of the EPA in the name of US fossil energy records. While Biden’s climate envoy, John Podesta, sought to reassure delegates by stating that the White House will nevertheless continue “to make progress on climate”, Zeldin explained that the Agency will instead “guarantee rapid deregulatory decisions to unleash the power of American business” in the name of “US dominance in energy” with greater “flexibility” in polluting. Trump will entrust the Governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, or the former Secretary of Energy Dan Bruillette, with the dual mission of managing the exit from the Paris Agreement and the expansion of drilling by canceling penalties on large producers of crude oil and gas for exceeding methane emissions thresholds. Drastic changes in direction on the horizon, climate scientists calculate. they risk causing the US to emit an additional 4 billion tons of greenhouse gases by the end of the decade, equal to a tenth of today’s global carbon dioxide emissions.
Chris Wright will join his government, among the founders of Liberty Energy, the corporation that pushed the production of fossil fuels with fracking, the extraction of oil and gas from unconventional deposits, defined as “one of the pioneers who contributed to launch the American shale revolution, spurred American energy independence, and transformed global markets and geopolitics.” He is the oilman who in 2019, live on Facebook, drank liquid extracted from fracking shale soils to demonstrate non-toxicity. And in 2023 on LinkedIn he explained that “there is no climate crisis, and we are not even in the midst of an energy transition”. Doug Burgum, pro-oil Governor of South Dakota, will have full control over federal lands and national parks, leading the Energy Council. And according to the Washington Post it could dismantle the “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration” considered “one of the main drivers of climate change alarms”. With these “pioneers” the USA will revive the old Republican slogan “drill, baby, drill”. What if “the oceans grow? We will have more properties with sea views.”
And if Brazil is also under accusation from the ecological front because it expects oil and gas production increases of 36% by 2035, there is little to hope for the next Cop30 in 2025 in the Amazon where in the meantime Joe Biden has visited , and it is the first time for a US President in office to witness a presidency that has, all things considered, respected its commitments against global warming, with 11 billion in funding for the climate in 2024.
We must hope in business, the only topic capable of changing the world’s suicidal choices, unlike the Trumpists. Because it was precisely the first US exit from the Paris agreements in 2017 that allowed China to start becoming a world leader in the green technology supply chains with cars or wind and solar technologies. Will Trump stop Tesla and his right-hand man Elon Musk’s zero-emissions business? Will the Europe of the transition towards carbon neutrality with the Green Deal and the rest of the world watch the titanic clash “USA against the rest of the world” from afar, and suffer catastrophes and catastrophic financial collapses without reacting?
Guest 1: Could you share your thoughts on the current state of the climate crisis and the role of international conferences like the one in Baku? How important is it for governments around the world to come together and address this issue collectively?
Guest 2: The current state of the climate crisis is dire, and it requires urgent action from all sectors of society, including governments. International conferences like the one in Baku play a crucial role in bringing together global leaders to discuss their strategies and commitments towards combating climate change. These gatherings raise awareness about the issue and provide a platform for countries to share best practices and hold each other accountable for their actions.
Given the lack of concrete commitments from some major emitters like the US, China, India, and Brazil, what do you think can be done to encourage them to take more ambitious steps towards reducing their greenhouse gas emissions?
Guest 1: We’ve seen efforts from other countries such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, who continue to push for stronger measures against climate change. Perhaps these nations can leverage their economic relationships with major emitters like the US, China, and India to encourage them to adopt more ambitious targets. Additionally, there could be incentives for these countries to reduce their emissions, such as the promise of economic assistance or trade deals with nations that prioritize environmental sustainability.
What is your take on the impact of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global efforts to tackle climate change? Do you think Biden’s administration will be able to reverse the damage done during the previous administration?
Guest 2: The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement sent shockwaves through the international community and severely set back global efforts to combat climate change. However, it’s important to note that the damage done cannot be fully undone by the Biden administration alone. It will require a concerted effort from all stakeholders, including businesses and civil society, to make up for lost time and accelerate progress. That said, Biden’s commitment to rejoin the Paris Agreement and implement domestic policies such as the Green New Deal provide a glimmer of hope for much-needed action on this front.
