(CNN) — The chances of a return of President Donald Trump are running out. He continues behind former Vice President Joe Biden, whose lead remains nationally and in key states with just days to go.
But perhaps most concerning for the president is that he is clearly behind his 2016 pace. By now, four years ago, he was rapidly closing the gap with Hillary Clinton. No such progress can be seen in the 2020 poll against Biden.
Right now, Biden is up between 9 and 10 points nationally, depending on which average one reviews. He is, what is more important, above 50%. Biden’s lead may be down a point or so since early October, though it’s well within the historical average since the beginning of the year.
The 2016 campaign, on the other hand, was in a big turn at this point. Among a host of factors, James Comey’s letter “investigating emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop that were potentially related to an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server” had just been published at this point in the report. 2016 campaign. This year no bombs of that magnitude have come off.
Clinton’s lead dropped to just 4 points in the national average with 9 days left before the 2016 election. His lead had been as high as 7 points with about 21 days to go.
Clinton’s 45% share of the vote was low enough to leave Trump with plenty of room in the final week of the campaign to corner voters who were not favoring either candidate at the time.
All Biden really needs to do right now to win is retain the voters he has.
But the differences go beyond national face-to-face surveys. An ABC News / Ipsos poll conducted after the final debate between Biden and Trump and released on Sunday found Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable – unfavorable) very weak, at -22 points.
The fact that Trump has a profoundly negative net favorability rating is nothing new. It has been the norm during his presidency and it was also the norm during his 2016 White House bid.
The most interesting data from the survey is that Biden’s net preference was +1 point. A positive net favorability rating is the norm for Biden these days.
Yet Clinton had almost universally negative net favourability ratings in the past month and nine days into the 2016 election. That is, she disliked her more than she liked.
To achieve a victory in 2016, Clinton would have had to have won over voters who did not like her and Trump. Clinton ended up losing the 18% of the electorate who had an unfavorable opinion of Trump and she by 17 points.
Today, Biden doesn’t need to do any of that. All you need to do is win over voters who already like you.
Our latest CNN / SSRS poll found that Biden would beat Trump by a 93% to 6% margin among likely voters who had a favorable opinion of Biden.
Three state polls released Sunday by CBS News / YouGov also indicate that there has been little movement in the polls toward Trump.
Many of these polls were conducted before Thursday’s debate, although they were completed on Friday after the debate.
What is key to note here is that they are almost identical to what CBS News / YouGov found the last time they were on the field.
In Florida, Biden is 50% to 48% for Trump. Last month, it was 48% Biden versus 46% for Trump.
In Georgia, Biden is 49% to 49% for Trump. Last month, it was 47% for Trump versus 46% for Biden.
In North Carolina, Biden is 51% to Trump’s 47%. Last month, it was Biden 48% versus 46% for Trump.
(Democrat Cal Cunningham holds a 6-point lead over Republican Senator Thom Tillis in this Senate race poll. This is less than a 10-point lead last month in a key race for Democrats’ hopes of retake the Senate).
I should note that all of these results are within the margin of error, although they are consistent with the poll averages that give Biden a 2-3 point lead in Florida and North Carolina and an even run in Georgia.
Keep in mind that Trump almost certainly needs to take all of these states to win. Biden would like to win at least one, although it’s easy to fill up his map without considering any of them.
The failure of state polls to show rapid movement toward Trump is again the opposite of what was happening in 2016.
As political analyst Bill Scher has shown, state polls pushed Trump up in the closing weeks of the 2016 election.
Apparently, people just didn’t believe the polls then.
Today those same polls have Biden ahead and in a clear position to win unless there is a development in the next few days.
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