The coalition agreement of the Vivaldi government sets a number of ambitious goals. For example, more people have to work, CO₂ emissions have to go down and a lot of money has to come from the fight against fraud. How can the De Croo government make this happen?
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1. An employment rate of 80 percent by 2030
At the moment, 73.6 percent of Belgians between 25 and 64 years of age are in work. The employment rate expresses the number of people in work versus the number of people of working age. There are two ponds from which to fish to increase employment.
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On the one hand, the unemployed can be helped to find a job. Job seekers can be linked to open vacancies, through retraining and activation programs. In our country, 8.8 percent of the population of working age is unemployed. On the other hand, there are inactive people, people of working age who are not available to the labor market due to illness, early retirement or discouragement. This concerns 22.8 percent of the population of working age. ‘To increase the employment rate, we have to look at the latter group,’ says labor economist Stijn Baert (UGent).
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The coalition agreement mentions few concrete measures to increase the employment rate. The government wants to organize a conference with the social partners and the federal states to develop action plans. She herself has various instruments to influence employment. “She can phase out early retirement, introduce degressivity of unemployment benefits or implement a tax shift from labor to consumption or capital,” says Baert.
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Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia are responsible for the activation policy. With an employment of 78 percent, Flanders is almost on the federal target. Brussels and Wallonia are at 65.8 and 68.4 percent respectively. ‘You will have to push Flanders above 80 percent by 2030 to achieve the national target. Bringing Brussels and Wallonia to 80 percent is utopian, ‘says Baert.
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The bad economy does not make this any easier. ‘The employment rate has increased by 2 percentage points under the Michel government, in good economic times. Then 10 percentage points would seem difficult to achieve at the moment, ‘says Baert. The De Croo government is aiming for a limited increase in the coming years. In her budget tables, she is counting on payback effects of 400 million euros by 2024. ‘If she counts on an average improvement in the budget of 40,000 euros per unemployed person who finds a job, she estimates that 10,000 people will be added. That is an improvement of barely 0.3 percentage point, ‘says Baert. Unless the government adjusts its employment policy during the term of office, the greatest efforts will be made after 2025.
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2. Strong climate ambitions, but not the key
The De Croo government wants to fully draw the climate map on the European stage. After the Brussels and Walloon governments, the federal government is now also showing itself to be an advocate of the European climate goals for the member states. The government will support the European Commission in its attempt to reduce European greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030, instead of by 40 percent. It also subscribes to the Paris goal of climate neutrality by 2050.
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However, the federal team must get the Flemish government on board to achieve the more ambitious European targets. If Europe tightens up the targets for the member states, the keys to achieving them lie mainly with the regions. The De Croo government will then face the N-VA with its climate voluntarism. Zuhal Demir (N-VA), the Flemish Minister of Energy, is a cool lover of the more ambitious goals, while the previous goals have not even been achieved.
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‘Most of the ambition is not in the hands of the federal government’, says Mathias Bienstman, policy coordinator at Bond Beter Leefmilieu. ‘Most of the levers can be found in the regions, such as buildings, transport, agricultural emissions, renewable energy and energy saving. That does not alter the fact that the federal government wants to take important steps forward in the powers it has in its hands. ‘
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The De Croo government wants to boost the development of Belgian offshore wind farms and will investigate whether wind energy can also be ‘harvested’ in international waters. Substantial investments will be made in the NMBS and in rail infrastructure. From 2026 onwards, only electric and emission-free commercial vehicles may be purchased and De Croo and co will commit without any timing. to ban the sale of gas and diesel cars in the long term.
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The government also wants to support the development of a hydrogen grid, focus on green gas and CO₂ capture projects, and invest in Elia’s electricity grid to transport the growing amount of renewable energy across land and across borders.
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Whether that is enough to bring down greenhouse gas emissions will mainly depend on the extent to which the government succeeds in joining forces with the regions. In the past, the Belgian climate plans have always tended to get bogged down in years of tug-of-war about who should make which efforts. The fact that Europe wants to release billions for countries investing in the transition can be a lever to make real work of it
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3. Health gap reduction by 25 percent
Highly educated and well-to-do people live on average 18 years longer in good health
health than low-educated and poorer people. That gap must be reduced by 25 percent. Healthy years of life are years that people spend without illness or disabilities. At 18 years, the gap in healthy life expectancy is significantly wider than the gap in biological life expectancy of five years. Which
the government will raise the growth standard of the health budget from 2022 to 2.5 percent on top of inflation should reinforce that ambition.
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A number of measures are needed to tackle the health gap. ‘First of all, it is necessary to reduce income inequality. Income is closely related to health, ‘says professor of general practice Jan De Maeseneer (UGent). ‘In addition, the care system must be accessible and high-quality.’ One measure to increase accessibility is the abolition or reduction of the patient contribution. ‘This is certainly necessary in primary care so that people can go to the doctor without a financial barrier.’
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Health economist Lieven Annemans (UGent) advocates an extensive application of the global medical file. “Everyone should be monitored by a doctor.” The government statement also strives for a smoke-free generation. ‘Smoking is an important cause of a loss of healthy years of life,’ says Annemans.
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4. Get 1 billion extra from the fight against fraud
Next year an extra 200 million euros, 400 million in 2022, 700 million in 2023
and a total of 1 billion in 2024. The De Croo government wants to use these amounts to increase the proceeds from the fight against tax and social fraud during this term of office. But that seems especially wishful thinking if you know what amounts have been collected from the fight against fraud in recent years.
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For example, last year the Special Tax Inspectorate was able to collect 294 million euros from the tax assessments and recovery orders that had been established in previous years. This means that each BBI official raised an average of 487,084 euros last year. So 200 additional officials are needed to collect EUR 100 million more.
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The fight against social fraud has already improved in recent years by better cooperation between the inspection services, but even then, spread over several years, between 2015 and mid-2019, this yielded ‘only’ 1.1 billion.
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The coalition agreement states that, among other things, the government wants to stop tax regularization by the end of 2023, which could convince tax sinners to regularize quickly. But whether this, together with a few other measures, will generate an extra EUR 1 billion is doubtful.
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