11 september 2020
21:50
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Paul Magnette, Sophie Wilmès, Alexander De Croo or Koen Geens. Vivaldi has no shortage of open or covert prime ministers, but which party is willing to pay the price for the premiership? Are concessions and shitty privileges worth the Sixteen?
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Whether it was Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD), Yves Leterme (CD&V) or Elio Di Rupo (PS), when the real government negotiations started, there was little discussion in previous formations about who would become prime minister. In 2014, CD&V figurehead Kris Peeters seemed destined for the Wetstraat 16, but it became Charles Michel (MR). The Christian Democrats chose to send Marianne Thyssen to the European Commission. It is different in the negotiations for a Vivaldi government: no one seems destined to take up residence in the gold-leafed rooms of Rue de la Loi 16.
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As a royal negotiator, Open VLD chairman Egbert Lachaert found seven parties willing to negotiate a Vivaldi government. In the absence of a consensus on a formateur and later prime minister, King Filip appointed him, together with sp.a chairman Conner Rousseau, as preformateur. They must seek unanimity between liberals, socialists, greens and CD&V about who will become a formateur. Lachaert’s positive corona test has delayed everything and a definitive answer is not expected until September 21.
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The negotiators themselves will vehemently deny that the knot is at the posts. The content is central, it says. That is undoubtedly correct, but in order to weigh substantively it is important to fill the right posts. Regardless of prestige, the prime minister is extremely important for that reason. The head of government, former Prime Minister Charles Michel (MR) once remarked, sets the agenda. It makes the resident of Rue de la Loi 16 the director of the coalition, who is always one step ahead.
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Magnettes claim
The unwritten rule is that the coalition’s largest party supplies the government’s numero uno. At Vivaldi, that is the PS, which with 20 seats in the House leaves all other parties far behind. PS chairman Paul Magnette himself is not reluctant. “I am available, of course,” it sounded on French-language television last week. The mayor of Charleroi can add other arguments: the PS is not only the largest party, the socialists are also the largest political family. Moreover, he has ministerial experience and, unlike his predecessor Elio Di Rupo, speaks fluent Dutch.
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If Paul Magnette stays in Charleroi, his shadow threatens to hang over a Flemish prime minister.
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There are two obstacles on Magnette’s road to Wetstraat. The first is MR Chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez, who is believed to be able to barricade the Sixteen to keep his arch-rival out. “Paul Magnette’s candidacy surprises me,” he declared last week. The young liberal thinks that the current prime minister and his party colleague Sophie Wilmès should stay on. She would remain prime minister in any other country. She is by far the most popular. It would be good if we in Belgium respect the will of the people. It’s a matter of political decency. ‘
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Bouchez estimates the chance that Wilmès will stay on at 70 percent. At the other parties they are big eyes: MR lost six seats in the elections, the French-speaking liberals are a lot smaller than the French-speaking socialists and the liberals must also let the socialists take precedence as the largest political family. The Flemish parties are also not fond of Wilmès: she is accused of a lack of decisive leadership and she is not fluent in Dutch.
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Flemish resistance
More fundamental than the cock fight between Magnette and Bouchez is the resistance of the Flemish parties against a French-speaking prime minister. First of all, Open VLD and CD&V think that after Di Rupo and Michel it is time for a Fleming again. A Flemish prime minister must counter the image of a French-speaking dominated Vivaldi. On the Flemish side, the coalition does not have a majority, because the two largest parties in the country – the N-VA and the Vlaams Belang – remain on the side.
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At Open VLD, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is being looked at. He has been remarkably quiet in recent weeks, hoping to grab the win in the last meters, Caleb Ewan-wise. With twelve seats each, CD&V and Open VLD are the largest Flemish parties in Vivaldi. But the Flemish liberals think they have an advantage because with MR their French-speaking sister party is also in the government. As a plus, it sounds that De Croo speaks decent French, has earned his stripes as Deputy Prime Minister and he is the only candidate with international experience.
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When it comes to Prime Minister De Croo, they go into a spasm at CD&V. With him in charge, Vivaldi threatens to become a decidedly purple-green and thus progressive project, while chairman Joachim Coens pushes heaven and earth to sell Vivaldi – or Avanti, as he calls it – as a classic tripartite complemented by the greens. With a Christian Democratic prime minister, the party can make the ‘synthesis’ between left and right, something it feels more comfortable with.
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CD&V has the same seats as Open VLD, but received 20,000 more votes. In the game it is used to claim the premiership, which will probably go to Koen Geens. Although everyone recognizes his intelligence and he is perfectly bilingual, he is distrusted by future coalition partners as well as by some CD&V members. Due to a lack of support, his opportunities seem limited.
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Not only is there a discussion about which Flemish prime minister should be, some are also wondering whether a Flemish prime minister is desirable at Vivaldi. The same construction error as under Michel threatens to creep into government. Then, to the chagrin of Michel, N-VA chairman Bart De Wever was portrayed as the shadow prime minister, who only had his thumbs up or down.
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If Magnette stays in Charleroi, his shadow threatens to hang over a Flemish prime minister. It is reminiscent of the second Verhofstadt government, of which then PS chairman Elio Di Rupo made it clear that he could make them fall with a snap of the finger. With a Flemish prime minister, the image of a government dominated by French speakers threatens to be strengthened rather than compensated.
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The premiership does not come for free. It will be difficult for CD&V to get their way about euthanasia and deliver the prime minister, Open VLD can be demanded a trophy of assets in exchange for the Sixteen. In addition, the prime minister is paid dearly in other posts. If the prime minister becomes Flemish, Open VLD, CD&V, Groen and the sp.a are entitled to two portfolios. The Flemish party that receives the Sixteen can only claim a ‘flut post’. This can be a problem not only in terms of visibility, but also in terms of content.
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No premier bonus
If the prime minister is the director of a coalition, then ministers are the actors. They implement agreements made, but can give their own interpretation. For example, the N-VA and Open VLD hoped to implement ambitious labor market reforms in the Michel government. They thought they had received the necessary guarantees for this, but constantly ran into Minister of Work Kris Peeters (CD&V). In order to please his supporters, he put the brakes on implementation. Therefore it may be more useful to bet on strategically important posts than the Sixteen.
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Leterme, Di Rupo or Michel: the Sixteen always proved to be a guarantee for a loss of votes in the next elections.
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Finally, premiership in our country is less attractive than in many other countries, because there is hardly any electoral bonus. Abroad, good governance often leads to an electoral victory. Because Belgium as a complex country is difficult to govern, the opposite happens. Whether it concerns Leterme, Di Rupo or Michel, the Sixteen always proved to be a guarantee for a loss of votes in the next elections. ‘Whoever enters the Wetstraat 16, comes out with 16 percent,’ says Bart De Wever with a quip.
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The question is, who really wants to be a prime minister? And who is pretending to pry the concessions? If there is too much poker, a stalemate threatens and surprises cannot be ruled out. For example, the name of former sp.a minister Johan Vande Lanotte keeps popping up – a Fleming with tons of experience and a member of the largest political family – although he laughs that away himself. The names of CD&V toppers Hilde Crevits and Joachim Coens and even those of preformateur Lachaert are mentioned. By September 21, the battle for the Sixteen must be fought and a formateur would enter the arena, so that Vivaldi finally gets a conductor.
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