Tight Race Predicted as Voters Head to the Polls

The political landscape in Greenland is currently uncertain,with no clear frontrunner emerging in the lead-up to the election. The only survey published more than a month ago indicated a potential victory for the socialist Individuals at the Attachment (IA), led by President Múte B. Egede. The survey showed IA with 31% support,ahead of the social democrat Forward party. However,a important 30% of voters remained undecided,making the outcome challenging to predict.

Both IA and Forward have governed together for the past three years. However, projections suggest that both parties may see a decrease in their vote share compared to the 2021 elections.

Democratitis and naleraq Vie for Influence

Beyond the leading parties, other political forces are vying for influence in Greenland.The Democratitis party is projected to be the third-largest force, with nearly 19% of the vote. Meanwhile, Naleraq, a party advocating for a swift break from Denmark, is also looking to gain ground, despite climbing several points.

Aviaq Pedersen, a student in Nuuk, highlighted the importance of the election, stating:

The future of Greenland is going to be decided. And the parties want different things,so we will see what direction Greenland takes.
Aviaq Pedersen, student in Nuuk

Trump’s Interest Looms Over the Election

The recurring interest expressed by former U.S. President Donald Trump in acquiring Greenland has cast a long shadow over the electoral campaign. This interest has compelled the main political parties to articulate their positions on the matter, with most expressing opposition to the idea.

In a recent social media post on Sunday,Trump reiterated his support for Greenland determining its own future,promising security and “billion dollars” in investments should they choose to align with the U.S.

President Egede addressed Trump’s overtures in an interview with Danish public television DR, recorded before Trump’s latest comments. Egede struck a more assertive tone, requesting “respect” and emphasizing the importance of a “robust” government and a strong economic foundation as Greenland progresses toward independence, without specifying a timeline.

Economic Realities and the Path to Independence

Greenland’s economy is heavily reliant on Denmark, which provides approximately 40% of the island’s income. Fishing accounts for 90% of its exports, underscoring the importance of this sector to the Greenlandic economy.

the Siumut party, a long-time dominant force in Greenlandic politics, has also felt the ripple effects of Trump’s interest and the broader discussion on independence. While all parliamentary parties support independence in principle, the liberal Atassut party expresses some reservations.

Forward has presented mixed messages during the campaign, and Aki-Matilda Høegh-Dam, one of Greenland’s two representatives in the Danish Parliament, has left the party.

Naleraq Gains Prominence with New Allies

Høegh-Dam has since joined naleraq, as has Quana Olsen, a well-known Greenlandic influencer who creates English-language videos about Inuit culture. This influx of new figures could bolster Naleraq’s support base.

Naleraq has previously served as a junior partner in two governments, most recently with IA in 2021. However, that coalition dissolved after only a year due to controversies, including a proposal by Naleraq’s leader, Pele Broberg, to restrict voting in an independence referendum to people of Greenlandic origin.

Naleraq is the most vocal proponent of strengthening ties with the U.S.,advocating for a free association treaty in exchange for financial support and security,despite the U.S. already maintaining a base in Greenland.

Concerns Over Social Welfare

Beyond the political maneuvering, many Greenlanders are primarily concerned with improving social welfare.

Politicians must work more in the social and health area. You have to solve the problem of the great lack of doctors.
Lilly Michaelsen, a social welfare worker

Deficiencies in healthcare and education are contributing factors to the increasing number of Greenlanders residing in Denmark, which has risen by 23% as 2008, reaching approximately 17,000.