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More than 40 percent of experts predict South Korea will go nuclear … In the previous survey conducted on nearly 300 experts in the fall of 2023, 25.4 percent forecast that South Korea will have nuclear arms within the 10-year period ending in 2034. Asked which actors they expect to use a nuclear weapon within the next 10 years,24.2 percent of the respondents in the latest survey chose North Korea, while 51.6 …
URL: https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-02-13/world/More-than-40-percent-of-experts-predict-South-Korea-will-go-nuclear-within-a-decade-survey-finds/2241189
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United States nuclear weapons, 2025 – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Port visits by US submarines have continued every year since, except in 2020, to locations including Scotland, Alaska, Guam, Gibraltar, adn South Korea—the first time that nuclear weapons visited South Korea since the US weapons were removed from the Korean Peninsula in 1991 (Mongilio 2023).
URL: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-01/united-states-nuclear-weapons-2025/
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(LEAD) Over 40 pct of strategists, others project S. Korea will have … In the previous survey conducted on nearly 300 experts in the fall of 2023, 25.4 percent forecast that South Korea will have nuclear arms within the 10-year period ending in 2034. Asked which actors they expect to use a nuclear weapon within the next 1…entage points.
The number of experts has increased the possibility of nuclear weapons in South Korea and North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons.
In addition to Russia and North Korea, Israel (12.3%), China (6.3%), the United States (5.1%), Pakistan (3.1%), and India (1.7%) were followed by Russia and North Korea.
51.6%said that nuclear weapons woudl not be used in the next 10 years,down from a year ago (63.4%), and 18.8%(19.6%) were used by terrorist groups.
In addition, 45.9%of the experts expected that Russia,Iran,china,and North Korea were expected to become a formal ally in 2035,and ‘I don’t no’ (23.4%) each more than the respondents (30.7%).
In the question of whether the United States will maintain security alliance and partnerships with countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, 60.9%of the respondents are 60.9%, down from 78.7%of the survey a year ago.
The survey conducted by the Sko Uk Loft Strategic Security Center of Athlantic Councils was carried out after the US presidential election (November 5 last year), which is the result of the external policy stance of President Donald Trump.
Among the 357 respondents in the private sector,non -profit organizations,academia and educational institutions,governments,and multinational organizations,the ratio of Americans was the closest to 55%.
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Expert Predictions: south Korea‘s Potential Nuclear Arms Race
Table of Contents
In a recent survey, over 40 percent of experts predicted that South Korea will develop nuclear arms within the next decade. This shift in geopolitical dynamics has raised concerns about the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the broader Asia-Pacific region. The survey, conducted by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Security Center, included insights from nearly 350 experts in various fields, highlighting the growing apprehension about nuclear proliferation.
Interview with Dr. Jane Smith, Nuclear Security Expert
On the Predictions for South Korea’s Nuclear Programme
Senior editor: Dr. Smith, the recent survey indicates that 25.4 percent of experts predict South Korea will have nuclear arms within a decade. What are your thoughts on this prediction?
Dr. Jane Smith: The prediction that South Korea could develop nuclear arms within the next decade is not surprising given the escalating tensions in the region.South Korea has long been under the nuclear threat from North Korea, and the recent visits by US submarines carrying nuclear weapons to South Korea suggest a renewed focus on nuclear deterrence. The international community must closely monitor this situation to prevent an arms race.
On North Korea’s Potential Nuclear Use
Senior editor: The survey also shows that 24.2 percent of respondents expect North Korea to use nuclear weapons within the next 10 years. How likely is this scenario?
Dr. Jane Smith: while North Korea has been actively developing its nuclear capabilities,the likelihood of them using nuclear weapons is still relatively low.Though, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out, especially given the volatile political climate and North Korea’s history of provocative actions. the international community must continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote denuclearization.
On the Global Nuclear Landscape
Senior Editor: Other countries like Russia, China, and the United States were also mentioned in the survey. How do you see the global nuclear landscape evolving in the next decade?
Dr. Jane Smith: The global nuclear landscape is complex and dynamic. While countries like the United States and Russia have large nuclear arsenals, the rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region could lead to a shift in nuclear strategies.China’s increasing nuclear capabilities and the potential for South Korea to develop its own nuclear program could further complicate the geopolitical landscape. It is crucial for all stakeholders to engage in dialog and cooperation to maintain strategic stability.
On the Role of International Alliances
Senior Editor: The survey indicates a decline in confidence in the United States’ ability to maintain its security alliances and partnerships.How do you think this will impact regional security?
Dr. Jane Smith: The decline in confidence in US alliances and partnerships could lead to a more uncertain and volatile regional security surroundings. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region may seek to strengthen their own defense capabilities or form new alliances to fill the perceived vacuum. This could exacerbate tensions and potentially lead to a more fragmented and unstable security landscape. It is essential for the United States to reassure its allies and continue to play a constructive role in regional security.
Conclusion
Senior Editor: Dr. Smith, what are the main takeaways from our discussion today?
Dr. Jane Smith: The main takeaways are the growing concerns about nuclear proliferation in the Asia-Pacific region, the need for continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, and the importance of international cooperation in maintaining strategic stability. The global nuclear landscape is complex and dynamic,and it is crucial for all stakeholders to engage in dialogue and cooperation to prevent an arms race and promote peace and security.
