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KDI Economic Outlook 2023-2nd Half – Korea Development Institute
The global economy is assumed too persist in its slow growth in 2024, following 2023’s trends. · The IMF forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.9% for 2024, a slight decrease from 2023’s 3.0%, amid extended periods of high interest rates in major economies and a slowdown in China’s economy.
South Korea’s top think tank lowers economic growth projection, citing …
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s top economic think tank slashed its growth forecast for the country’s economy for the second time in four months on Tuesday, expressing concern about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s expanding tariffs. The state-run Korea Development Institute …
KDI Economic Outlook 2023-1st Half – Korea Development Institute
A deceleration in the global economy is projected in 2023 and 2024, relative to 2022. · According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth is poised to decline to 2.8% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022, and remain subdued at 3.0% in 2024, attributable to persistent high interest rates in major economies and escalating financial market uncertainty.
which was high, has been adjusted due to the recent delay in domestic recovery. Private consumption growth forecasts dropped from 1.8% to 1.6%. It is expected that consumption will be sluggish due to high interest rates and the shrinking of psychological affairs. Construction investment is also expected to be reversed (-1.2%) due to accumulated orders.
Exports are expected to increase only 1.8% due to the deterioration of the habitat. KDI pointed out that the uncertainty of trade policy has soared as the election of US President Donald Trump. The sluggishness of other export industries is expected to offset the strong semiconductor, and the outlook for the export export growth is lowered from 1.9% to 1.5%.
However, KDI maintained a 1.6% increase in consumer prices this year due to sluggish domestic demand. The company predicted that employment would slow down due to sluggish domestic demand.
KDI usually believes that the growth rate may be lower if conflicts are worse or longer anxiety. Inside,”Korea’s regeneration is prolonged and delayed economic psychology can lead to limited domestic improvement,” he said. I did it.
Expert Interview: Economic Outlook for 2023-2024
Editor: What are your key insights from the [KDI Economic Outlook 2023-2nd half – Korea Advancement Institute](https://www.kdi.re.kr/eng/research/economy?pub…)- especially concerning the global economic growth rate forecasted for 2024?
Guest: The IMF expects the global economy to continue its slow growth traction in 2024,projecting a growth rate of 2.9%. This slight dip from 3.0% in 2023 is primarily due to sustained high interest rates in major economies and a decelerating Chinese economy.
Editor: How does the influence of trade policies, particularly those affecting Korea, contribute to this economic forecast?
Guest: Trade policies, especially post the election of US President Donald Trump, have significantly impacted the global economy. While the semiconductor industry remains strong, the sluggishness in other export sectors is likely to mitigate these gains, leading to an adjusted export growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%.
Editor: What implications does this have on domestic consumer prices and employment within Korea?
Guest: Analysts at KDI anticipate a 1.6% increase in consumer prices this year,driven mainly by weak domestic demand. Similarly, employment growth is expected to decelerate due to sluggish domestic demand.
Editor: are there any other factors that KDI identifies as potential determinants for future economic stability or instability?
Guest: KDI anticipates that prolonged conflicts and heightened anxiety can deepen economic issues. The mood ”Inside Korea’s regeneration” can mitigate or exacerbate these challenges. Prolonged and delayed [economic psychology](https://www.kdi.re.kr/eng/research/economy?pub…) can result in limited domestic gains.
Guest Statement: “Korea’s regeneration is prolonged and delayed economic psychology can lead to limited domestic improvement,” he said.
Editor: Could you elaborate on the psychological aspect influencing economic recovery and sustainability?
guest: The economic psychology suggests that consumer confidence and business outlook are key drivers of economic activity. Extended periods of uncertainty and anxiety can hinder recovery efforts and limit potential growth opportunities.
Conclusion:
The main takeaways from this interview emphasize the global economic slowdown anticipated in 2024, the impact of geopolitical trade policies on domestic economies, and the potential consequences of prolonged economic anxiety on recovery efforts. These insights underscore the importance of both macroeconomic policies and psychological factors in shaping economic prospects.
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