Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat to Earth in 2032
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked global attention as scientists assess its potential to collide wiht Earth on December 22, 2032. While the probability of a safe passage is estimated at 99%, the remaining 1% chance has prompted international space agencies to closely monitor its trajectory.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) telescope in Chile, this asteroid is currently 45 million kilometers from Earth and moving farther away. Observations are expected to continue until early April, after which it will not return near Earth until 2028 due to its orbit around the sun.
With an estimated diameter of 40 to 100 meters, 2024 YR4 is large enough to cause meaningful regional damage if it were to collide with Earth. According to NASA, asteroids of this size strike Earth approximately once every thousand years.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) are actively collaborating to track and characterize the asteroid. IAWN, led by NASA, is developing strategies to evaluate potential impacts, while SMPAG is set to meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss mitigation methods. These could include deflecting the asteroid or evacuating affected areas on the ground.
A researcher from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) emphasized, “If 2024 YR4 remains a threat at the end of the observation period, it will be considered to be considered.” The priority, however, is to “keep observing and reduce the uncertainty of the 2032 position.”