Hezbollah’s hidden Arsenal: The Challenges of Implementing the lebanon-Israel Ceasefire
As the 60-day mark since the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel approaches on January 26, questions linger about its full implementation. The agreement, which aims to stabilize the volatile southern Lebanon region, hinges on the dismantling of hezbollah’s extensive military infrastructure—a task that has proven to be a meaningful challenge.
According to a report by the Israeli newspaper Maariv,the Israeli army uncovered a vast network of weapons and military installations belonging to Hezbollah during its recent operations in southern Lebanon. These discoveries, made both during and after the ceasefire announcement, highlight the scale of the militant group’s preparations for potential conflict.
The ceasefire agreement stipulates that the Lebanese Armed Forces will be the sole entity authorized to bear arms in southern Lebanon. Their mandate includes dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons and infrastructure, notably in the southern Litani area. However, as Dana Pollak, a researcher at the Israeli Alma Institute for Security Studies, notes, “The big test of the agreement will be in the activity of the Lebanese army in the areas south of the Litani, where ther are still many weapons and infrastructure belonging to hezbollah.”
The israeli army’s limited ground maneuvers revealed a staggering arsenal: 6,840 RPGs and anti-tank launchers, 9,000 explosive materials, 2,700 weapons and assault rifles, 300 surveillance devices, 60 anti-aircraft missiles, 20 vehicles, and thousands of shells and missiles. Yet, as Pollak explains, “this huge amount of weapons was seized in limited and specific areas that the Israeli army reached in its ground maneuver inside Lebanon. There are large areas south of the Litani River where extensive infrastructure and large stocks of weapons for Hezbollah still exist.”
Despite the ceasefire, the Israeli army continues to conduct targeted airstrikes in southern Lebanon to disrupt Hezbollah’s operations.Pollak emphasizes that “there is ample evidence of Hezbollah’s continued activity in southern Lebanon,” underscoring the ongoing threat posed by the group.
The duty now falls on the Lebanese army to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure and prevent its rearmament. Though, Pollak warns that the lebanese army “does not show a high ability to act against Hezbollah at this stage,” raising concerns about the feasibility of the agreement’s long-term success.
Key points of the Ceasefire Agreement
| Aspect | Details |
|————————–|—————————————————————————–|
| Duration | 60 days, starting from November 28, 2024 |
| Key Objective | Dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons and infrastructure in southern Lebanon |
| Authorized Force | Lebanese Armed Forces |
| Challenges | Hezbollah’s continued activity and the Lebanese army’s limited capacity |
| Israeli Role | Targeted airstrikes to disrupt Hezbollah’s operations |
The ceasefire agreement represents a critical step toward de-escalation in the region, but its success depends on the Lebanese army’s ability to neutralize Hezbollah’s military capabilities. As the January 26 deadline looms, the international community watches closely to see if this fragile truce can hold.
For more insights into the geopolitical dynamics of the region, explore our analysis of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and its implications for the Middle East.
headline:
Unveiling Hezbollah’s Arsenal: A Dialog on the Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire with Dr. Amydart al-Kaysi
Introduction:
As the 60-day mark since the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire approaches, concerns remain about its full implementation. The agreement, aimed at stabilizing volatile southern Lebanon, depends critically on dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure—a daunting task. Dr. Amydart Al-Kaysi, a renowned expert on Middle Eastern politics and a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies, joins us today to discuss the challenges of implementing the ceasefire and the recent discoveries of Hezbollah’s hidden arsenal.
1. The Scope of Hezbollah’s Hidden Arsenal
Senior Editor: Dr. al-Kaysi, could you start by shedding some light on the scale of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure uncovered by the Israeli army?
Dr.Amydart Al-Kaysi: Indeed, the discoveries both during and after the ceasefire announcement have been staggering. The Israeli army found thousands of RPG launchers, anti-tank weapons, explosives, assault rifles, surveillance devices, and even anti-aircraft missiles.These findings highlight Hezbollah’s preparations for conflictoverse the years, despite denials of their military ambitions.
SE: How does this arsenal impact the prospects of the ceasefire agreement’s success?
Dr. AK: The sheer size of the discovered stockpiles underscores the notable challenge ahead for the Lebanese Armed forces. Dismantling this infrastructure within the 60-day deadline is a monumental task that will test their capabilities and resolve.
2. The Lebanese Armed forces’ Role
SE: The ceasefire agreement designates the Lebanese Armed Forces as the sole entity authorized to bear arms in southern Lebanon. How well equipped and motivated are they to carry out this task?
Dr.AK: The Lebanese Armed Forces face numerous challenges, including limited capacity, lack of resources, and political divisions within Lebanon. While they have made progress in recent years, their ability to effectively neutralize Hezbollah’s military capabilities remains uncertain. Can they overcome these obstacles and maintain their neutrality in a deeply divided political landscape? That’s the big question.
3. israel’s Continued Airstrikes and Hezbollah’s Activity
SE: Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to conduct targeted airstrikes in southern Lebanon. How does this affect the overall stability and prospects of the agreement?
Dr.AK: Israel’s continued airstrikes reflect its concerns about Hezbollah’s ongoing activity. While some of these strikes may target valid military threats, they also risk violating the ceasefire and provoke counteractions from Hezbollah. To maintain the fragile peace, both sides must exercise restraint, yet there’s a delicate balance to strike between security concerns and adhering to the ceasefire agreement.
4. The International Community’s Stake
SE: The international community watches the ceasefire’s progress closely. What role can external actors play in supporting its implementation?
Dr. AK: The international community can play a crucial role by providing political support, humanitarian aid, and, if necessary, assistance with security sector reform to bolster the Lebanese Armed Forces. Moreover, they can work to facilitate meaningful dialogue between Lebanon and Israel, reducing tensions and promoting understanding.
5. Looking Ahead: The Road to Stability
SE: As we approach January 26, what are the most significant steps for ensuring the ceasefire’s success and long-term stability in southern Lebanon?
Dr. AK: First and foremost, the Lebanese Armed Forces must demonstrate their ability and willingness to disarm Hezbollah.International actors should also play their part, supporting Lebanon’s stability and pushing for dialogue between Lebanon and Israel.Last but not least, the people of Lebanon must be allowed to express their aspirations for peace and security. Their voices should be heard and considered in the ongoing calculus of stability and growth.
