Chinese Airlines Soar as European Carriers Struggle on China-Europe Routes
In a dramatic shift in the aviation landscape, Chinese airlines have emerged as the dominant force on the China-Europe route market, leaving their European counterparts grappling with operational challenges and financial losses. This transformation, driven by uneven access to Russian airspace and aggressive expansion strategies, has reshaped the dynamics of international air travel.
A Surge in Chinese Dominance
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) approved several new routes to european cities in the third quarter of 2023, including services to Bucharest, Dublin, Edinburgh, and Geneva. This expansion builds on earlier additions, such as Air China’s Chengdu-Milan service, China Eastern Airlines’ direct flight from Shanghai to Marseille, and China Southern Airlines’ Guangzhou-Budapest route.
According to data from aviation platform DAST, between November 27 and December 3, 2023, a total of 855 flights operated between China and Europe, marking a 21.6% year-on-year increase. Notably, over 84% of these flights were operated by Chinese carriers, a significant jump from approximately 60% in 2019.
The russian Airspace Advantage
The primary driver behind this shift is the uneven access to Russian airspace. In February 2022, Russia barred European airlines and other carriers from its airspace in retaliation for sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three years later, European airlines remain effectively locked out of the world’s largest country by landmass, forcing them to take lengthy and costly detours.For exmaple,Scandinavian Airlines flights from Shanghai to Copenhagen,which previously took around 11 hours,now stretch to over 15 hours due to rerouting. This not only increases flight times but also raises operational expenses, putting European carriers at a significant disadvantage.In contrast, Chinese airlines continue to enjoy access to Russian airspace, granting them a competitive edge. “If you want to go from Europe to Southeast Asia, for example, you go into India or the Middle East, generally flying across Turkey, through the Caucasus, and then around,” explained Bloomfield from Propelo aviation. “When all the airlines are flying the same way, it’s manageable today, but you could eventually face capacity issues.”
the Ripple Effects of Rerouting
The rerouting of European flights has led to overcrowding in choice airspaces, increasing the risk of delays and further operational costs. “There is usually an optimal flight path and level for fuel efficiency,” Bloomfield noted. “If airspace capacity nears its limits, planes might be asked to adjust their speed or route, perhaps impacting flight times and fuel burn.”
however, the reduction in European carrier activity to and from China has somewhat mitigated these effects.still, the situation remains precarious, with European airlines struggling to sustain their operations in the face of aggressive competition from Chinese carriers.
Financial Pressures and Uncertain Demand
European carriers are feeling the financial strain. “European carriers will lose money as the Chinese airlines have so much capacity and are very aggressive with their prices,” said Sobie from Sobie Aviation. “This is further exacerbated by the fact that the (European) carriers have longer flights. European carriers just cannot sustain flights into China in that environment, it’s pretty obvious.”
Simultaneously occurring,questions linger about the sustainability of Chinese airlines’ dominance. According to the earnings reports of China’s “big three” carriers—Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and china Southern Airlines—average revenue from international routes fell by approximately 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. This decline raises concerns about whether chinese carriers can maintain their presence in the European market amid uncertain passenger demand.
Key Data at a Glance
| metric | 2023 Data | 2019 Data |
|———————————|—————————–|—————————–|
| Flights between China and Europe | 855 (Nov 27 – Dec 3) | N/A |
| Chinese carrier market share | 84% | ~60% |
| Year-on-year flight increase | 21.6% | N/A |
| Revenue decline (Big Three) | ~30% (H1 2024) | N/A |
The Road Ahead
As Chinese airlines continue to expand their footprint in Europe, the aviation industry faces a pivotal moment.European carriers must navigate the challenges of longer flight paths, rising costs, and fierce competition, while Chinese airlines must address declining revenues and uncertain demand.
The evolving dynamics of the China-Europe route market underscore the profound impact of geopolitical tensions on global aviation. For now, chinese carriers are flying high, but the skies ahead remain uncertain.
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For more insights into the shifting dynamics of international air travel, explore our analysis of the emerging leaders in the Europe-China market and the EU’s response to China’s dominance.
