Trump’s Ukraine Policy: what to Expect Under teh New Administration
As the United States transitions to a new administration under President-elect Donald Trump, questions about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine have taken center stage. Political scientist Taras Zagorodny, managing partner of the national Anti-Crisis Group, recently shared insights in an interview wiht UNIAN, shedding light on what Ukraine can expect from the Trump administration.
Campaign Rhetoric vs. Reality
During his campaign, Trump made statements about ending the war in Ukraine, which many interpreted as a potential shift in U.S. policy. however, Zagorodny argues that these remarks were primarily aimed at voters and political opponents, rather than signaling a change in stance toward Ukraine. “Everything that Trump and the Republicans said regarding Ukraine during the election campaign should be forgotten,” he advised.
Once in office, the new administration will start with a clean slate, gathering intelligence, forming a team, and assessing the global landscape. Zagorodny predicts that Trump will adopt a pragmatic approach, particularly in dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Pompeo Plan: A Blueprint for Ukraine
Zagorodny highlights the so-called “Pompeo plan,” named after former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as a likely framework for Trump’s ukraine strategy. This plan emphasizes strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities to deter further Russian aggression. It also calls for the demilitarization of Crimea and rejects the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territories.
Additionally, the plan advocates for Ukraine’s rapid accession to NATO and urges the European Union to expedite Ukraine’s membership while supporting its economic modernization. “No one is going to abandon Ukraine,” Zagorodny emphasized, adding that U.S.aid will remain at least at the level provided by the outgoing Biden administration, if not higher.
Trump and Putin: A Power Play
A potential meeting between Trump and Putin has been a topic of speculation. Zagorodny believes that such a meeting would be less about negotiation and more about asserting dominance. “Trump tells everyone that it is not he who wants a meeting with Putin, but it is the Russian dictator who initiates it,” he explained. This dynamic, according to Zagorodny, places Putin in a subordinate position, which “infuriates” the russian leader, who seeks equal partnership agreements.
Zagorodny also dismissed the notion of meaningful negotiations, stating, “There is nothing to negotiate. Putin has already laid all his cards on the table.” He pointed to Putin’s unrealistic demands, such as Ukraine ceding control of the Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Donetsk regions, as evidence of Russia’s weak negotiating position.
Russia’s Diminished Leverage
The political scientist argued that Russia has little to offer in negotiations. The international community will never recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories,and Moscow’s influence in the Middle East has waned. “Blackmail with a war in the Middle East will not work, as Moscow has lost influence in Syria,” Zagorodny noted. Moreover, the U.S. is poised to replace Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe with its own exports, further undermining Russia’s economic leverage.
A Flexible Approach to ukraine
Bloomberg reports that Trump is expected to take a more “flexible” approach to Ukraine than anticipated. He will not pressure Kyiv into premature negotiations with Russia, a move that could risk humiliation akin to the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan under President Biden.Supporting Ukraine, Zagorodny argues, is crucial to preventing a Russian victory that could embolden China to pursue more aggressive actions.
Key takeaways
| Aspect | Details |
|————————–|—————————————————————————–|
| U.S. Aid to Ukraine | expected to remain at or above current levels under Trump. |
| Pompeo Plan | Focuses on strengthening Ukraine’s defense and NATO/EU integration. |
| Trump-Putin Dynamics | Trump likely to assert dominance, with little room for meaningful talks. |
| russia’s Leverage | Limited due to international rejection of annexations and reduced influence.|
Looking Ahead
As Trump prepares to assume office, the world watches closely to see how his administration will navigate the complex geopolitical landscape. For Ukraine, the message is clear: U.S. support will continue, and the focus will be on strengthening its position against Russian aggression.
For more insights into Trump’s plans for Ukraine, read his latest statements and stay updated on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Ukraine relations.
