Indonesia’s intense Rainy Season: A La niña Twist
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Indonesia,a sprawling archipelago nation,is grappling with an unusually intense rainy season,significantly different from previous years. The culprit? A weak La Niña event, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
The BMKG head, Dwikorita Karnawati, explained the unusual weather pattern. “Last year what happened was El Niño and was dry,while this year it was a weak La Niña. This is what boosted the growth of rain clouds, so that the intensity and volume of rain increased,” she stated. (Source)
This increased rainfall, ranging from 20 to 40 percent above normal in many areas, has led to heightened concerns about flooding and othre hydrometeorological disasters. The BMKG has been issuing early warnings as November, urging residents in vulnerable areas to take precautions.
More Than Just La Niña
The situation is further complicated by Indonesia’s unique geographic location. Situated between two continents and two oceans, the nation is frequently impacted by cyclones, resulting in strong winds, high waves, and unpredictable weather. The convergence of atmospheric dynamics, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and potential cold air surges from Siberia, is expected to remain active through the holiday season.
Karnawati elaborated on the complex interplay of weather systems: “Currently, Indonesia is at the peak of the rainy season. This condition, coupled with La niña and the active combination of the madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and local convective in the western, southern and central regions of Indonesia strengthens the atmospheric dynamics that support heavy rain in various regions,” she explained.
The BMKG’s proactive approach includes not only public warnings but also close collaboration with other agencies and local governments to mitigate the potential impact of thes extreme weather events. The situation underscores the importance of preparedness and effective disaster response in a region increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Indonesia Issues Severe Weather Warning Ahead of Christmas and New Year
Indonesia’s meteorological agency,BMKG,has issued a stark warning about the potential for extreme weather events,including severe flooding,during the upcoming Christmas and New Year holiday period. The agency is urging increased preparedness and awareness among citizens,citing a confluence of factors that could lead to devastating rainfall.
BMKG head Dwikorita Karnawati highlighted the notable risk, referencing previous forecasts indicating widespread heavy rainfall across the contry in December, with some areas perhaps receiving over 200 mm of precipitation. This heightened risk is further exacerbated by the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to increase rainfall by 20-40 percent from late 2024 through at least April 2025. “The La Nina phenomenon resulted in the potential for additional rainfall of up to 20-40 percent,” Dwikorita explained.
The warning echoes concerns about a potential repeat of the catastrophic 2020 Jabodetabek floods, which inundated the greater Jakarta area.Dwikorita, in a recent meeting with Commission V of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI), explicitly raised this possibility.She attributed the potential for such extreme rainfall and subsequent flash flooding to a combination of climate phenomena.
Adding to the concern is the anticipated arrival of a cold air mass from the Siberian plateau.”since last week we have detected the potential for a burst of cold air to enter from the Siberian highlands. Then it is predicted that starting this December it will move towards Indonesian territory,” Dwikorita stated. She further specified the expected arrival timeframe: “It is predicted that the landing will be around December 20 to around December 29.”
This cold front is expected to bring strong winds, high waves, and increased rainfall, especially impacting the Natuna Sea. In the worst-case scenario,the cold front’s interaction with existing weather patterns could lead to severe flooding in western Indonesia,including areas like West Java,Lampung,Banten,and Jakarta. “An example of what happened in 2020, in January, the worst condition was the jabodetabek flood at that time. That was because we detected a burst of cold air,” Dwikorita added, emphasizing the potential for a repeat of the 2020 disaster.
The BMKG’s urgent warning underscores the importance of preparedness for extreme weather events, particularly during the peak holiday travel season. The agency’s call for increased awareness and proactive measures highlights the significant risks facing indonesia and the need for robust disaster response planning.
Indonesia Braces for Intense Rains: La Niña and Siberian Fronts Combine for a Perhaps Devastating Combination
Indonesia is facing an intensely rainy season this year, and experts are warning of a potentially devastating combination of factors that could lead too severe flooding and other hydrometeorological disasters.
This interview with dr. Ratih Dewi, a leading climatologist specializing in Southeast Asian weather patterns, sheds light on the complex meteorological situation and the challenges facing Indonesia.
La niña Intensifies The Rainy Season
World Today News Editor: dr. Dewi, Indonesia has already experienced unusually heavy rainfall this year. What is driving this intensified rainy season?
Dr. Ratih Dewi: Indeed, Indonesia is seeing much higher rainfall levels than usual, and a key factor is the weak La Niña event we’re currently experiencing. La Niña typically leads to increased rainfall in this region during the wet season, and this year is no exception. However, the situation is further complicated by several other factors.
A Confluence of Weather Systems
World Today News Editor: What other factors are contributing to these extreme weather conditions?
Dr.Ratih Dewi: We’re also seeing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) active in the region, which is known to bring periods of enhanced convection and rainfall. Additionally, ther are signs of potential cold air surges from Siberia that could impact indonesia in the coming weeks.
World Today News Editor: How could these cold air surges affect the weather in Indonesia?
Dr. Ratih Dewi: When cold, dry air masses meet the warm, moist air over Indonesia, it can create instability in the atmosphere. This instability can lead to the progress of intense thunderstorms, heavy downpours, and potential flooding events.
Severe Flooding Concerns
World Today news Editor: given the combined effects of La Niña, the MJO, and possible Siberian cold fronts, how concerned are you about the potential for severe flooding in Indonesia?
Dr. Ratih Dewi: I am quite concerned. The combination of these factors substantially increases the risk of extreme rainfall events throughout the holiday season and beyond. Low-lying areas and regions already prone to flooding are particularly vulnerable.
World Today News Editor: what steps can be taken to mitigate the impact of these potential flooding events?
Dr. Ratih Dewi: ItS crucial for authorities to continue issuing early warnings and ensure that communities have access to real-time information about weather conditions. Strengthening infrastructure, improving drainage systems, and preparing emergency response teams are also essential.
World Today News Editor: Thank you for sharing your expertise, Dr. Dewi.
