It may have been some 40 years since 1983, but the CIA’s assessments of a plan to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, have significant similarities to the current situation as it unfolds at the “neighborhood” level. of Syria.
At the time, the US problems with Syria were: 1) Syria’s refusal to withdraw its troops from Lebanon and 2) The closing of an oil pipeline from Iraq, which had a significant economic impact on the country (which since 1980 until 1988 it was at war with Iran).
The Americans estimated that especially the second problem would affect their strategic interests in the region more, since it could “open” the Iran-Iraq war throughout the region.
In order to change the situation, according to a related secret CIA report of the time, entitled “Using real force to pressure Syria”, the US planned to create, in cooperation with the country’s neighbors, multiple foci of military tension. Specifically in a passage of the report it is stated: “The US should consider dramatically increasing the pressure on Assad, through the secret orchestration of simultaneous military threats against Syria from three neighboring states: Iraq, Israel, Turkey.”
A secret CIA briefing from September 1983 proposes “the US should consider sharply escalating the pressures against [Hafez] Assad through covertly orchestrating simultaneous military threats against Syria from three border states hostile to Syria: Iraq, Israel and Turkey.” pic.twitter.com/oj0sVWsKd2
— Matt Kennard (@kennardmatt) December 15, 2024
According to the logic of the Americans of the CIA, Israel would make a military threat without actually going to war with Syria, while Turkey would play the card it still plays today, namely the threat of the Kurds, but also its anger at Hafez’s support for an Armenian organization that Turkey then considered terrorist. Without stating it explicitly, as far as Turkey is concerned there is an attitude of tolerance as to whether the military threat from there could bring “conflict”.
As for Iraq, the assessment is that the Iraqi side in an engagement with Syria would win the support of the rest of the Arab world and the US would be quick to calm any concerns of the Iraqi leadership regarding this new “front”. In essence, the Americans argued in this report that Iraq would only have to win if it managed to dismantle the Assad regime, since this would weaken Iran.
Forty years later, the situation as it emerges after the overthrow of the Assad regime is not much different from what the Americans estimated in 1983. Israel and Turkey emerge strengthened from the overthrow, as for Iraq, the Americans had taken care of it several years before to change associations.
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