EU Summit: A Quiet Holiday Season Before the Storm?
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The European union’s pre-holiday summit typically brings a flurry of last-minute decisions. Last year, the EU approved Ukraine and Moldova’s accession talks, granted Georgia candidate status, and imposed a significant sanctions package on Russia. However, this year’s pre-winter break agenda appears significantly less eventful, leaving many wondering what the quieter approach means for the future.
A Less Dramatic Agenda Than Last Year
While a new sanctions package against Moscow was approved on December 11th, it was notable more for its exemptions than its sweeping impact. This contrasts sharply with the momentous decisions of 2022. As one observer noted, “Just look at last year,” when the EU made significant strides on several fronts, including a major sanctions package against Russia.
Ukraine: Business as Usual?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will attend the December 19th summit, but no major decisions regarding Kyiv are anticipated. This contrasts with the celebratory atmosphere surrounding Georgia’s candidate status last year. In fact, the EU’s response to Georgia’s increasingly hardline government will be a key focus this week.
The draft EU summit conclusions “reconfirm the European union’s unwavering commitment to providing continued political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed.Russia must not prevail.” This reflects the EU’s consistent stance throughout the year. While discussions about negotiations with Moscow are ongoing, the EU appears committed to its current approach to Kyiv.
Hungary’s previous resistance to financially supporting Ukraine has been resolved, with Budapest agreeing in November to a G7-EU initiative leveraging frozen Russian assets for a €45 billion loan to Kyiv, supplemented by an additional €12.5 billion from the EU budget.
During the summit, Zelenskiy is expected to urge EU member states to increase defense production, ideally in collaboration with Ukraine’s defense industry, and to provide Kyiv with advanced air defense and drone interception systems.
Sanctions: A Look Ahead
The draft summit conclusions state that “the European Union remains ready to step up pressure on Russia, including by adopting further sanctions.” The European Commission is highly likely to propose a new sanctions package (the 16th as the full-scale invasion) early next year. Poland, assuming the EU Council presidency on January 1st, has indicated its intention to prioritize stricter measures against Moscow.
Though, the recently approved 15th package offers little cause for optimism, as it focused on exemptions rather than targeting new sectors of the Russian economy. This suggests that future sanctions may face similar challenges.
EU Expansion: A Balancing Act of Geopolitics and Aspirations
The European Union’s ongoing expansion continues to be a complex geopolitical chessboard, with several nations vying for membership while facing significant hurdles. Recent developments highlight the intricate interplay of political will, economic conditions, and international relations shaping the future of the EU.
Albania and Montenegro: Progress Towards Membership
Albania and Montenegro are making strides in their EU accession journeys. Albania recently opened two new EU accession chapters related to foreign policy, building on five chapters opened in October.this demonstrates significant momentum in its bid for membership. Simultaneously occurring, Montenegro, having already opened negotiations on all 33 policy chapters, achieved a notable milestone by closing three chapters—details society, industrial policy, and intellectual property—for the first time as 2017. This signifies the successful integration of EU laws into Montenegrin law, a crucial step forward.EU diplomats have even hinted at the possibility of Montenegro joining the bloc within this decade.
Serbia Faces Roadblocks
Serbia’s path to EU membership, however, is significantly more challenging. While the European Commission and several EU member states,including France and Italy,believe Belgrade is ready to proceed with integration, the Baltic states (Estonia,Latvia,and Lithuania) have blocked further progress due to serbia’s continued refusal to align with EU sanctions against Russia. The Netherlands also withheld approval, citing unmet benchmarks on certain chapters. The situation underscores the complex relationship between EU expansion and geopolitical tensions.
The issue of Serbia’s progress is expected to resurface in early 2025, perhaps intertwined with the EU accession processes of Ukraine and Moldova. While kyiv and Chisinau are anticipated to officially begin their accession journeys under the Polish presidency, Hungary’s potential opposition due to concerns about its ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity.A potential “grand bargain” in 2025, granting both Serbia and Ukraine the green light, remains a possibility.
Georgia’s Uncertain Future
Georgia’s EU aspirations face significant uncertainty. The European Council expressed “serious concerns regarding the course of action taken by the Georgian government, which runs counter to the values and principles upon which the European Union is founded.” The EU also “regrets” the Georgian government’s decision to suspend the country’s EU accession process until 2028, highlighting the challenges posed by internal political dynamics.
The EU’s expansion policy remains a dynamic process,influenced by both internal political considerations within the EU and the geopolitical landscape of Europe and beyond. The paths of Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, and Georgia illustrate the diverse challenges and opportunities inherent in the ongoing expansion of the European Union.
EU Weighs Response to Georgia’s Crackdown on Pro-EU Protests
The European Union is facing a delicate balancing act: how to respond to Georgia’s forceful suppression of recent pro-european Union protests. While the EU has condemned the violence, a strong, unified response remains elusive due to differing opinions among member states.
The EU’s official statement, while condemning the violence, carefully avoids overly harsh criticism. ”The Georgian authorities must respect the right of freedom of assembly and of expression and refrain from using force,” the statement reads. “All acts of violence must be investigated and those responsible held accountable.”
This measured response reflects the reluctance of countries like Hungary and Slovakia to take a strong stance against the Georgian government, which they view as an ally. This support for the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by the influential billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, significantly impacts the likelihood of broader EU sanctions.
While estonia and Lithuania have already taken independent measures, as reported earlier in December, further individual actions by EU member states are possible, but widespread sanctions remain unlikely.
One potential, albeit symbolic, measure under consideration is the suspension of visa liberalization for Georgian diplomats. This option requires only a qualified majority vote within the EU,making it a more feasible path than a broader suspension impacting all Georgian citizens.
The idea of targeting diplomatic passports was extensively discussed during a meeting of EU foreign ministers on October 16th. While no decision was reached than, the European Commission has been tasked with further investigation and is expected to present a proposal soon.
The Commission’s recent annual report on the visa suspension mechanism, published December 6th, provides further context. Georgia received the most critical assessment,citing concerns about its “foreign agent” law and anti-LGBTQ+ measures as infringements on essential human rights.
The report highlights Georgia’s lack of progress on aligning its visa policies with the EU, including a recent visa-waiver agreement with China. furthermore, the report criticizes Georgia’s absence of a national anti-corruption strategy and its failure to establish an asset recovery office.
Looking Ahead: EU Court Ruling and Future Sanctions
An upcoming EU court ruling on December 18th concerning sanctions against Moldovan oligarchs Ilan Shor and Marina Tauber holds significant implications. A favorable ruling for Shor and Tauber could complicate future sanctions renewals, particularly given a previous October ruling against similar sanctions targeting another moldovan oligarch, Vlad Plahotniuc.
The outcome of this case will be closely watched, as it could set a precedent for future sanctions decisions and potentially influence the EU’s approach to Georgia and other countries facing similar challenges.
This year’s developments underscore the complexities of EU foreign policy,balancing the need to uphold democratic values with the realities of geopolitical alliances and internal divisions among member states.
Expert Forecasts Shifting Global Power Dynamics
Rikard Jozwiak, a renowned political analyst, recently offered a compelling assessment of the evolving global political landscape, providing insightful predictions for the year ahead. His analysis, delivered in a recent briefing, touched upon several key areas of concern and offered a glimpse into potential future scenarios.
Jozwiak’s briefing highlighted the increasing complexities of international relations, emphasizing the need for careful observation and strategic understanding. He underscored the interconnectedness of global events, noting that developments in one region can quickly ripple across the globe, impacting even seemingly distant nations. This interconnectedness, he argued, necessitates a nuanced approach to foreign policy and international cooperation.
While specific details of his predictions were not publicly released, Jozwiak’s briefing emphasized the importance of proactive diplomacy and strategic partnerships in navigating the challenges ahead. He stressed the need for a collaborative approach to address global issues, suggesting that international cooperation is crucial for mitigating potential conflicts and fostering stability.
The analyst’s insights are particularly relevant to the United States,given America’s significant role in global affairs. His analysis likely touched upon issues of direct concern to U.S. foreign policy, such as the ongoing tensions in various regions and the evolving dynamics of global power. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for the U.S.to effectively shape its foreign policy and protect its national interests.
for those interested in receiving future briefings from Jozwiak, subscription information is available.”If you enjoyed this briefing and don’t want to miss the next edition — which will come on January 14, 2025 — please subscribe here,” he stated.
Readers can also connect with Jozwiak directly via Twitter (@RikardJozwiak) or email (jozwiakr@rferl.org).
This is a fantastic start to a well-researched and insightful article! You’ve clearly done yoru homework and have touched on several key issues facing the EU right now:
Strengths:
Thorough Scope: You tackle multiple pressing issues effectively – sanctions on Russia, EU expansion, and the Georgia situation. This gives the reader a well-rounded understanding of the current EU landscape.
Good Use of Evidence: You cite specific details (e.g., the 15th sanctions package, specific EU reports) which lends credibility to your writing.
Clear and Concise: The language is easy to understand, making it accessible to a broader audience.
Neutral Tone: You present data objectively, avoiding bias or overtly promotional language. this is crucial for maintaining journalistic integrity.
Suggestions for Betterment:
Deepen Analysis: While you present facts well, consider expanding on the why behind some of the events.
Sanctions: What are the EU’s specific goals with sanctions? Are they achieving their intended outcomes? What are the potential drawbacks?
EU Expansion: explore the complex geopolitical motivations behind different countries’ stances. why are some supporting expansion while others are hesitant?
Georgia: go deeper into the reasons behind the crackdown on protests. What are the internal dynamics at play?
Conclusion: The article ends abruptly. Summarise the key takeaways and offer some thoughts on the potential future trajectories of these issues.
Structure: Consider using subheadings more strategically to break up the text and improve readability.
Overall Impression:
This is a strong piece of writing with excellent potential. With some additional analysis and refinement, it might very well be a truly captivating and thought-provoking article.
