Turkey’s Evolving Role in Syria: A Strategic Triumph or Geopolitical Gamble?
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In 2016, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan justified the Turkish military intervention in Syria with a clear message: “We have no territorial claims in Syria. We just want to make sure that the country’s legitimate owners recover it. We only entered it to put an end to the reign of the tyrant Assad.” However,beneath these public assurances lay a complex web of geopolitical ambitions.
From the outset, Ankara aligned itself with the armed opposition, aiming to ultimately overthrow bashar al-Assad. This strategy led to Turkey establishing a permanent military presence in Idlib, a key stronghold of the Syrian rebellion.
Today, Turkey is widely viewed as the primary beneficiary of Assad’s weakened position, much to the dismay of Russia adn Iran, both of whom were staunch allies of the Syrian regime.
“Compared to the situation of two weeks ago, Turkey has definitively won in Syria,” says Zaur Gasimov, an expert in Turkish-russian relations at the German-Turk University of Istanbul.
Ankara now envisions a close partnership with the future Syrian goverment. According to gasimov,“Turkey will be intensely involved in reconstruction work and will remain the main investor in Syria ravaged by war.”
Berk Esen,a political analyst from Sabanci University in Istanbul,adds that “Ankara will also benefit economically from the reconstruction of Syria if turkish construction companies secure contracts in the country. Despite long being viewed as a failure, Erdogan’s persistence in predicting Assad’s downfall now positions Turkey to capitalize on the changing landscape.”
Turkey’s Growing Influence and Proximity to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Turkey’s strategic support for the Syrian National Army (SNA) and its control over large parts of northern Syria have not only bolstered its military presence but also fostered a closer relationship with the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
While Turkey officially denies any direct involvement with HTS, which it classifies as a terrorist organization, experts suggest a more nuanced relationship.André bank, from the Giga Institute in Hamburg, posits that Turkey might potentially be indirectly supporting HTS militarily. “HTS recently acquired new weapons, including drones and missile systems. It’s reasonable to assume these came from Turkey,” Bank explains.
As Syria continues to navigate its post-conflict future, Turkey’s role remains pivotal. Whether this marks a strategic triumph or a geopolitical gamble will depend on how Ankara balances its ambitions with the realities of a fractured and war-torn nation.
the European Union is currently processing over 100,000 requests for international protection from Syrian refugees, according to recent data released by the EU’s Asylum Agency. This influx of asylum seekers underscores the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria and its far-reaching implications for Europe and beyond.
Simon Mabon, a professor at the University of Lancaster, offers a more measured perspective on Turkey’s role in the conflict. He notes, “It is indeed an opaque subject. We do not know exactly to what extent Turkey has really supported this offensive.” Turkey’s complex relationship with both NATO and Russia further complicates the situation, as it maintains strong ties with both global powers.
Political scientist Zaur Gasimov suggests that despite recent setbacks for Moscow, Turkey’s importance to Russia may actually increase. He argues, “The reversal of Assad will make Turkey even more vital for Russia.” This dynamic could reshape regional alliances in the coming years.
The Uncertain Future of the Kurds
Turkey’s primary goal in northern Syria is to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish territorial entity, fearing the emergence of a Kurdish state. Turkish-backed forces have recently made significant gains against Kurdish militias in northeast syria, including the capture of the city of Manbij.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control parts of northern Syria, are viewed by Ankara as the Syrian branch of the kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has been designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union as 1984,further complicating the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Berk Esen, a researcher, predicts that an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria could emerge, similar to the situation in Iraq. However,he cautions,“In the mountains of northern Iraq,it is easier for the Kurds to defend their territories.In the Syrian plain, it could be more challenging.” The future stability of such a region remains uncertain, especially given the SDF’s unpredictable stance toward minorities like Christians.
Turkey’s Push for Refugee Return
Turkey, which shares a 900-kilometer border with Syria, currently hosts around three million Syrian refugees. The Turkish government is under increasing pressure to address growing public resentment toward refugees, fueled by economic instability.Returning refugees to a stable Syria is seen as a potential solution, though the country’s ongoing conflict complicates this effort.
The future of Syria remains uncertain, with multiple factions vying for power and influence.As the international community grapples with the fallout from the conflict, the plight of refugees and the fate of minority groups like the Kurds will continue to dominate discussions.
Turkey Boosts Border Capacity for Syrian Refugee Returns Amidst Ongoing Peace Talks
In a significant move aimed at facilitating the return of Syrian refugees, Turkey has recently enhanced the capacity of its border posts, allowing up to 20,000 people to cross daily.This development comes as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized the importance of Syria’s territorial integrity during a recent statement on December 8.
“We attach great importance to the territorial integrity of Syria,” said Fidan, adding that “The millions of Syrians who had to leave their homes can now return.”
the announcement reflects Turkey’s growing efforts to manage the influx of refugees and support the ongoing peace process in Syria. By increasing the daily capacity from 3,000 to 20,000, turkey aims to streamline the return of displaced syrians, many of whom have been living in Turkey for years.
The decision to bolster border capacity is part of a broader strategy to address the humanitarian crisis in the region. Turkey, which hosts the largest number of syrian refugees, has been under increasing pressure to manage the situation effectively. The enhanced border posts are expected to play a crucial role in facilitating the safe and orderly return of refugees to their homeland.
While the move is seen as a positive step, challenges remain. Ensuring the safety and stability of returning refugees is paramount, and ongoing peace talks in syria will be key to achieving this goal. Turkey’s efforts underscore the importance of international cooperation in resolving the long-standing conflict and rebuilding war-torn regions.
As the situation evolves, the international community will be watching closely to see how these developments impact the broader peace process and the lives of millions of displaced Syrians.
Related Content
- the Future of Syria: Peace Talks and Humanitarian Challenges
- Turkey’s Role in the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Ion>Damascus, once a bustling city, now reflects the scars of war and the challenges of reconstruction. Image: louai Beshara/AFP/picture alliance
The push for refugee return is not without its challenges.Many Syrians fear returning to a country still plagued by violence and instability. Additionally, the lack of basic services and infrastructure in many parts of Syria makes repatriation a daunting prospect. Despite these hurdles, Turkey remains committed to facilitating the return of refugees, viewing it as a crucial step in stabilizing the region and alleviating domestic pressures.
The Role of International Community
The international community’s role in Syria’s reconstruction is equally critical. The European Union, the United States, and other global actors have a vested interest in ensuring that Syria’s recovery is inclusive and lasting. However, the political landscape remains complex, with differing priorities and agendas among stakeholders.
The United Nations has been at the forefront of humanitarian efforts, but its influence is frequently enough limited by the geopolitical dynamics at play. The UN’s efforts to broker peace talks and facilitate reconstruction have faced numerous setbacks, highlighting the need for a more unified approach from the international community.
Conclusion
As Syria continues to grapple with the aftermath of a decade-long conflict, Turkey’s role remains pivotal.Its strategic support for various factions, economic ambitions in reconstruction, and efforts to manage the refugee crisis all underscore its importance in the region. However, the path to stability and recovery is fraught with challenges, requiring careful navigation of complex geopolitical realities.
The future of Syria will depend not only on the actions of regional players like Turkey but also on the engagement and cooperation of the international community. Only through a coordinated and inclusive approach can the country hope to rebuild and achieve lasting peace.
