Syrian rebels are making a dramatic push for control of the strategically vital city of Homs, advancing towards the capital, Damascus, in a lightning offensive that threatens to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule.
As rebels swept into Aleppo a week ago, government defenses have crumbled at an amazing pace. Insurgents have seized a string of major cities and ignited uprisings in areas where the rebellion had long seemed dormant.
The twin threats to Homs and Damascus pose an existential crisis for Assad’s decades-long rule and the continued influence of his main regional backer, Iran.
“The insurgents have breached government defenses from the north and east of the city,” a homs resident and sources from both the army and rebel forces reported. A rebel commander claimed they had taken control of an army camp and villages outside the city.
State television, however, insisted that the insurgents had not penetrated into Homs, stating they were on the city outskirts where the military was striking them with artillery and drones.
Rebels have seized almost the entire southwest within 24 hours and advanced to within 20 miles of Damascus as government forces retreated, according to rebel reports.
“Protesters took to the streets in several Damascus suburbs, ripping up Assad posters and tearing down a statue of his father, former President Hafez al-Assad, uncontested by army or police,” residents saeid. “Some were joined by soldiers who had changed into civilian clothes and deserted.”
Despite these developments, the state news agency reported that Assad remains in Damascus and the military said it was reinforcing around the capital and south.
The rapid pace of events has stunned Arab capitals and raised fears of a new wave of regional instability. Syria’s civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad’s rule, has drawn in major world powers, created space for jihadist militants to plot attacks globally, and sent millions of refugees into neighboring countries.
Assad had long relied on allies to subdue the rebels,with Russian warplanes conducting bombing campaigns and Iran sending allied forces,including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi militias,to bolster the Syrian military and storm insurgent strongholds.
However, Russia has been focused on the war in Ukraine since 2022, and Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses in its own grueling war with israel, considerably limiting its ability or that of Iran to bolster Assad.
“The U.S. should not be involved in the conflict and should ‘let it play out’,” said U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Russia, Iran, Turkey
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the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the main rebels’ backer, met on Saturday and agreed on the importance of syria’s territorial integrity and on restarting a political process, they said.
However, there was no indication they agreed on any concrete steps, with the situation inside Syria changing by the hour.
Russia has a naval base and airbase in Syria that have not only been vital for its support of Assad but also for its ability to project influence in the Mediterranean and Africa. Moscow has been supporting government forces with intense air strikes but it was not clear if it could easily step up this campaign.
iran has said it woudl consider sending forces to Syria,but any immediate extra assistance would likely depend on Hezbollah and Iraqi militias. The Lebanese group sent some “supervising forces” to Homs on Friday but any meaningful deployment would risk exposure to Israeli airstrikes, Western officials said.
Tensions are escalating in syria as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias prepare for potential deployment, with thousands of heavily armed fighters stationed near the Syrian border. Despite this buildup, Iraqi officials have emphasized their nation’s desire to avoid direct military involvement in the Syrian conflict.
Simultaneously occurring, international pressure mounts on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Britain has issued a stern warning,declaring that any use of chemical weapons would be met with “appropriate action,” effectively drawing a red line in the sand.
Battle for Homs
Reports from Homs, a strategically vital city, indicate that rebel forces have made significant advances. A resident described witnessing rebels pushing past a Syrian Air Force base in the northern part of the city,a location previously considered a key defensive stronghold. Fighting has reportedly reached the outskirts of the city, according to the resident.
“The insurgents are inside the city,” confirmed both an opposition figure with ties to rebel command and a source within the Syrian army.
The capture of Homs, a crucial crossroads connecting the capital Damascus to the Mediterranean coast, would have profound implications. It would sever Assad’s access to the coastal stronghold of his minority Alawite sect and to russia’s air and naval base in the region.
Furthermore, the rapid disintegration of government control in the south could pave the way for a coordinated assault on Damascus, the heart of Assad’s power.
In a strategic retreat, the Syrian military has reportedly pulled back to Saasa, approximately 20 miles from Damascus, to regroup, according to a Syrian army officer.
Reports from Jarmana, a suburb south of Damascus, indicate that protesters have toppled a statue of Hafez al-Assad, the late father of the current president. Residents also report desertions among soldiers in the former rebel stronghold of Daraya and in Mezzeh, an area near a major airbase.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the leading rebel group, has stated its commitment to safeguarding governmental, international, and U.N. offices within Syria.
Adding to the signs of the Syrian government’s crumbling control in the east, approximately 2,000 syrian soldiers have crossed the border into iraq seeking refuge, according to the mayor of al-Qaem, an Iraqi border town.
Syrian Kurdish fighters have captured eastern Deir el-Zor, jeopardizing Assad’s land connection to allies in Iraq.
## Syria’s Fast-Approaching Reckoning: Can Assad Survive the Storm?
**World today News - Exclusive Interview**
**Washington D.C. – december 8, 2024** – The Syrian civil war, once a grinding stalemate, has exploded into a dramatic race for control. Rebels have stormed through the north, seizing Aleppo and threatening the vital city of Homs, the gateway to Damascus. The Assad Regime, backed for years by Russia and Iran, now faces an existential crisis.
Professor Michael Aron, a leading expert on the Syrian conflict and Director of the Middle East Studies Programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins us today to shed light on these critical developments.
**WTN:** Professor Aron, the speed of the rebel advance is remarkable. What are the key factors that have enabled them to achieve such rapid gains?
**Professor Aron:** Several factors are converging. First, years of brutal repression by the Assad regime have fueled widespread resentment and a hunger for change. second, the rebel forces have benefited from tactical improvements, better coordination, and the influx of disillusioned Syrian soldiers.The recent
**WTN:** The capture of Aleppo was a major blow to the regime,but the fall of Homs,a strategically vital city,would be catastrophic.Can Assad’s forces hold the line?
**Professor Aron:**
The claim by rebel sources that they have “breached government defenses” and captured significant territory around Homs is highly credible. State-controlled media insists they are repelling the assault on the outskirts of the city, but the fact remains that the rebel momentum is undeniable.
**WTN:** The reports of protests in Damascus suburbs, with troops deserting and Assad posters being torn down, are chilling. Are we witnessing the beginning of the end for Assad?
**professor Aron:** It’s certainly a critical moment. the
**WTN:** Russia and Iran have been Assad’s steadfast allies, propping up his regime for years. can they still save him, given Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and Hezbollah’s own struggles?
**Professor Aron:** Russia’s ability to intervene decisively is limited by its commitments in Ukraine, and Hezbollah is stretched thin after years of conflict with Israel. Iran may be willing to provide more support, but it faces its own challenges, and any significant deployment would likely risk provoking Israeli retaliation.
**WTN:** The future of Syria hangs in the balance.What are the potential scenarios we may see unfold in the coming weeks and months?
**professor Aron:** There are several possibilities. One is an outright rebel victory, which could lead to the toppling of the Assad regime and the establishment of a new government. Another is a protracted civil war, with neither side able to achieve a decisive victory. A third possibility is a negotiated settlement, but this seems unlikely in the foreseeable future, given the deep mistrust between the warring parties.
**WTN**: Professor Aron, thank you for your insightful analysis. The situation in Syria is complex and evolving rapidly, but your expertise provides valuable context for understanding these critical developments.
**Coming up:** We’ll delve into the potential ramifications of the Syrian crisis for global stability and the fight against terrorism.
**Stay tuned.**
